Dagenham and Rainham
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19032 (48.2%)
Conservative: 12451 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3420 (8.7%)
BNP: 2616 (6.6%)
Other: 1991 (5%)
Majority: 6581 (16.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7841 (25.4%)
Labour: 15446 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3106 (10.1%)
BNP: 2870 (9.3%)
UKIP: 1578 (5.1%)
Majority: 7605 (24.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7091 (25.7%)
Labour: 15784 (57.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2820 (10.2%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Other: 507 (1.8%)
Majority: 8693 (31.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6705 (18.5%)
Labour: 23759 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 2704 (7.5%)
Referendum: 1411 (3.9%)
Other: 1584 (4.4%)
Majority: 17054 (47.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes - Dagenham loses three wards (Albion, Parsloes and Valence) from the Becontree estate to Barking and forms a new cross-borough constituency, gaining Elm Park, Rainham and Wennington and South Hornchurch from the London Borough of Havering.
Profile: Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Despite the removal of most of the Becontree estate, the area remains largely white working class and Labour voting. The BNP performed strongly in the 2006 Borough elections in Barking and Dagenham, but this was largely confined to the wards that make up the new Barking seat, especially the three Becontree wards that move out of the Dagenham seat.
Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham. The Rainham marshes were one of the proposed sites for the planned supercasino, but failed to make the final shortlist.
Current MP: Jon Cruddas (Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Simon Jones (Conservative) born 1974, Essex. Project manager. Stood as a list candidate in the 2004 London Assembly elections. Contested Pontefract and Castleford 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95382
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 91%
Black: 4.2%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.8%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 21.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
95 Responses
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mmm he could well be the Labour eqivalent of Sir Marcus Fox on election night. Whilst I might be tempted to predict a conservative gain by a whisker, it appears the seat will be an ultra marginal. The BNP will probably grow quite a bit as well, most probably at Labour’s expense. If the GE’s not until 2010 then I’d wait to see next year’s euro elections before calling this one way or the other.
June 2nd, 2008 at 4:07 pmBournemouth West
I wouldn’t be surprised if UKIP or BNP (or even both!) overtake the Lib Dems here.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:27 pmBournemouth West
Favourite to get BNP nomination is Bob Bailey, leader of BNP group on Barking and Dagenham council.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:37 pmKeighley
Prediction:-
July 3rd, 2008 at 6:25 pmLab = 16381 (40.01%)
Con = 14739 (36.00%)
BNP = 4337 (10.59%)
LibDem = 4283 (10.46%)
UKIP = 1193 (2.91%)
Total votes cast = 40933
Lab Maj = 1642 (4.01%)
Ruislip Northwood
Somthing like that except I dont know why the LD vote would increase here. This is one of their weakest areas they would be likely nearer 5% than 10% and I think the BNP will do better.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:28 pmThere were two by-elections within this constiteuncy today - one each in Barking & Dagenham and Havering. IN Chadwell Heath the Conservatives gained a seat from Labour and the BNP came third with 25%. In South Hornchucrh an Independent gained from a Resident BNP were second with 21%.
This shows continued BNP improvement compared with May.
The Liberal Democrats did not contest either ward.
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