Dagenham and Rainham
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19032 (48.2%)
Conservative: 12451 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3420 (8.7%)
BNP: 2616 (6.6%)
Other: 1991 (5%)
Majority: 6581 (16.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7841 (25.4%)
Labour: 15446 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3106 (10.1%)
BNP: 2870 (9.3%)
UKIP: 1578 (5.1%)
Majority: 7605 (24.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7091 (25.7%)
Labour: 15784 (57.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2820 (10.2%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Other: 507 (1.8%)
Majority: 8693 (31.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6705 (18.5%)
Labour: 23759 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 2704 (7.5%)
Referendum: 1411 (3.9%)
Other: 1584 (4.4%)
Majority: 17054 (47.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes – Dagenham loses three wards (Albion, Parsloes and Valence) from the Becontree estate to
Profile: Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Despite the removal of most of the Becontree estate, the area remains largely white working class and Labour voting. The BNP performed strongly in the 2006 Borough elections in Barking and Dagenham, but this was largely confined to the wards that make up the new Barking seat, especially the three Becontree wards that move out of the Dagenham seat.
Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham. The Rainham marshes were one of the proposed sites for the planned supercasino, but failed to make the final shortlist.
Outgoing MP: Jon Cruddas(Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Simon Jones (Conservative) born 1974, Essex. Project manager. Stood as a list candidate in the 2004 London Assembly elections. Contested Pontefract and Castleford 2005.Jon Cruddas(Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
David Morton (Liberal Democrat)Debbie Rosaman (Green)
Michael Barnbrook (BNP) Born Essex. Educated at Plaistow Grammar School. Retired policeman. Contested London in 2009 European elections.
Gordon Kennedy (Independent)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95382
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 91%
Black: 4.2%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.8%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 21.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
Paula Watson is standing here for the Christian Party
I agree with the recent comments.
BNP will do very well here attaining a share of around 18%.
The winner of this seat will the main party losing less votes to BNP.
To predict, I say Cruddas to hold with 1000 majority.
Your last sentence contradicts the preceding one, because almost certainly the BNP will take more votes from Labour as compared with 2005 than they wil take from the Conservatives. Of course it is quite possible that the Conservatives will lose less votes to the BNP than Labour will and yet Labour will still hold on, because obviously Labour have a much larger number of votes to start with.
I think one thing that needs remembering is that john Cryer did very well in only losing Hornchurch narrowly in 2005 and his strong performance in the wards comeing into this seat will have a bearing on the notional majority. John Cruddas is said to be popular but he has no incumbency in the Havering wards and with the loss of John Cryer’s personal vote i’d expect Labour’s vote there to fragment badly, being picked up by both Conservatives and BNP
[...] in May. Nick Griffin will be contesting the Barking parliamentary seat at the same time, and the psephology suggests that if the BNP candidate in the redrawn Dagenham seat next door takes enough votes off Jon Cruddas [...]
According to Iain Dale, David Morton is Lib Dem candidate here, which I assume is the ex ppc of Pudsey
Before 1945, Dagenham was part of the Romford constituency. The MP for that seat since 1935, Labour’s John Parker, continued to represent the Dagenham seat until 1983. Parker was the last serving MP to have been elected before the Second World War, and with 48 years in Parliament, remains the longest-serving Labour MP in history.