Dagenham and Rainham
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19032 (48.2%)
Conservative: 12451 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3420 (8.7%)
BNP: 2616 (6.6%)
Other: 1991 (5%)
Majority: 6581 (16.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7841 (25.4%)
Labour: 15446 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3106 (10.1%)
BNP: 2870 (9.3%)
UKIP: 1578 (5.1%)
Majority: 7605 (24.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7091 (25.7%)
Labour: 15784 (57.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2820 (10.2%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Other: 507 (1.8%)
Majority: 8693 (31.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6705 (18.5%)
Labour: 23759 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 2704 (7.5%)
Referendum: 1411 (3.9%)
Other: 1584 (4.4%)
Majority: 17054 (47.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes - Dagenham loses three wards (Albion, Parsloes and Valence) from the Becontree estate to Barking and forms a new cross-borough constituency, gaining Elm Park, Rainham and Wennington and South Hornchurch from the London Borough of Havering.
Profile: Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Despite the removal of most of the Becontree estate, the area remains largely white working class and Labour voting. The BNP performed strongly in the 2006 Borough elections in Barking and Dagenham, but this was largely confined to the wards that make up the new Barking seat, especially the three Becontree wards that move out of the Dagenham seat.
Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham. The Rainham marshes were one of the proposed sites for the planned supercasino, but failed to make the final shortlist.
Current MP: Jon Cruddas (Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Simon Jones (Conservative) born 1974, Essex. Project manager. Stood as a list candidate in the 2004 London Assembly elections. Contested Pontefract and Castleford 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95382
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 91%
Black: 4.2%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.8%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 21.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
This is one of the most interesting seats in London - looking at the Boris election last, bearing in mind this was last year, the conservatives won this seat’s ward (think 7 out of the 9) comfortably - I can’t imagine what the result is going to be like now given how Labour are hated.
If Labour are so hated, how did they won the Euro election so comfortably in Barking & Dagenham with 31.5% of the vote? 2nd - BNP; 3rd - UKIP, 4th - Conservatives.
Not sure about barking and dagenham mate but I think havering was a disaster for Labour. Finished below UKIP and BNP i think. I think that’s what is easy to forget about this seat - because it includes big Havering wards it changes the complexion quite a lot.
Are the Havering results available? I couldn’t find them on the havering website.
EDS - they’ve appeared on the front page of the Havering.gov website now:
Conservative Party 17,303
United Kingdom Independence Party 15,737
British National Party 8,627
The Labour Party 6,596
Liberal Democrats 3,940
The Green Party 3,479
Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship” 1,773
English Democrats Party 1,660
Thanks, Andy. So Havering wasn’t great for either the Tories or Labour as both lost %vote share (Labour losing more than the Tories) and Labour gained %vote share in B&D while the Tories lost %share. Meanwhile, the BNP gained 4-5% in both. I can see why Cormorant finds this such an interesting seat.
This seat contains what are now the better parts of B&D for the Tories such as Chadwell heath and Eastbrook where they have councillors - Labour and BNP will both be stronger in Barking itself, so while Labour may narrowly have been ahead in the B&D wards of this constituency they will have been well behind in the Havering section. A large part of the UKIP vote at least will be liable to go to the Tories in the general eletcion while the BNP will probably maintain a similar level of support
Will Labour have been well behind in the Havering section of this seat? One of the two Labour councillors in Havering comes from this part of the borough.