Croydon South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 28684 (50.93%)
Labour: 11287 (20.04%)
Liberal Democrat: 12866 (22.84%)
UKIP: 2504 (4.45%)
Green: 981 (1.74%)
Majority: 15818 (28.09%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26617 (51.9%)
Labour: 12374 (24.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10415 (20.3%)
Other: 1853 (3.6%)
Majority: 14243 (27.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25320 (51.8%)
Labour: 11792 (24.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10049 (20.6%)
UKIP: 1054 (2.2%)
Other: 682 (1.4%)
Majority: 13528 (27.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22169 (49.2%)
Labour: 13472 (29.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8226 (18.3%)
UKIP: 998 (2.2%)
Other: 195 (0.4%)
Majority: 8697 (19.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25649 (47.3%)
Labour: 13719 (25.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 11441 (21.1%)
Referendum: 2631 (4.9%)
Other: 759 (1.4%)
Majority: 11930 (22%)
Boundary changes: Gains part of Selsdon & Ballards, part of Croham and a small part of Waddon.
Profile: A seat in the far south of London that has more in common with residential Surrey than the inner city. Apart from Waddon in the north of the seat, which contains a large council estate and tower blocks and sometimes returns Labour councillors, this seat consists of affluent, leafy dormitory suburbs for Croydon and London, places like Coulson, Purley, Sanderstead and Selsdon (the site of the 1969 meeting that set free-market policies for the Conservative party and lead to the phrase “Selsdon man” and the later founding of the Selsdon Group).
This is a safe Conservative seat, held by the Tories since its creation in 1974 (the previous Croydon South seat, once held by Labour`s David Winnick, is a different seat that corresponds to what is now Croydon Central).
Current MP: Richard Ottaway(Conservative) born 1945, Bristol. Educated at Backwell School and Bristol University. Former Royal Naval Officer and solicitor. MP for Nottingham North 1983-1987. First elected as MP for Croydon South in 1992 (more information at They work for you)
Richard Ottaway(Conservative) born 1945, Bristol. Educated at Backwell School and Bristol University. Former Royal Naval Officer and solicitor. MP for Nottingham North 1983-1987. First elected as MP for Croydon South in 1992 (more information at They work for you)
Jane Avis (Labour) 
Simon Rix (Liberal Democrat) Book publisher
Gordon Ross (Green) Born Luton, 1965. Educated at St Georges School, Harpenden and Dundee University. Transport surveyor.
Jeffrey Bolter (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 103848
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 14.2%
White: 84.9%
Black: 4.4%
Asian: 6.4%
Mixed: 2.7%
Other: 1.6%
Christian: 70.8%
Hindu: 3.1%
Muslim: 2.6%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 25.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.3%
Owner-Occupied: 79.5%
Social Housing: 9.9% (Council: 6.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 8.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
Speaking of non-racists(!), how many former Conservative MPs can we name who later joined UKIP. I can-
1. Roger Knapman (Later party leader)
2. Sir Richard Body
3. Timothy Renton
4. Jonathan Aitken
5. John Browne
Oh dear. I meant Timothy Brinton…
The local newspaper in Croydon has mentioned Shaun Bailey (along with Boris Johnsonand Steve O Connell) as a possible candidate and with no disrespect to Shaun Bailey but his ‘brash ‘geezer’ persona that he displayed during his campaign in Hammersmith would really not fit with the character of the seat, and I guess with the local Tory association too, unless what happened in East Surrey happens here.
@The Results
Just because exTories join UKIP it doesn’t make them racists. Jonathan Aitken is the Godfather to Diane Abbott’s son
There are a long list of possible Conservative candidates for this seat I can think of- James Cleverly, Stephen O’Connell, Roger Evans, Boris Johnson, Shaun Bailey. A shot in the dark might be the current leader of Croydon Council- Mike Fisher.
”Jonathan Aitken is the Godfather to Diane Abbott’s son”
I’m sorry, but Jonathan Aitken also happens to be a former perjuror who was convicted in a Court of Law….
Why does that make him a racist?
It doesn’t make him a racist, he’s just not exactly what you could call ‘perfect’.
“Happy retirement to Richard Ottaway, a good anti-racistTory MP. ”
The implication of this is clear.
Since the journey down this road has been started – it’s time to deal with it head on – I strongly suspect Conservatives (incl. voters) – on average – are more tolerant and welcoming of immigrants
than the electorate as a whole.
Tend to just get on with it and treat people as people rather than sanctimoniously sound off.
I wish Richard Ottoway a happy retirement of course.
As for so called “Respect”, well lets not even go there other than to say it’s a messier squabble than Con/UKIP.
Went to an excellent event recently where Nirj Deva MEP came,
and he spoke actually quite movingly about how he values the links between the UK and countries such as Sri Lanka, where he was born.
The international aspect of this country is a success story,
although of course we have to have some limit on numbers
and invite those who are here to be more of the host country,
than have a country within a country – as is sometimes the case.
@ Joe James B “I strongly suspect Conservatives (incl. voters) – on average – are more tolerant and welcoming of immigrants
than the electorate as a whole” – HAHA, OH COME ON!!
I disagree with that statement. When Michael Howard went right wing in the 2005 GE, there were a number of anti-immigrant campaigning including at least one poster, he was rightly trounced by the media and the public rejected Michael Howard and the Conservatives.
“The international aspect of this country [Sri Lanka] is a success story” – is that a joke? Sri Lanka is ruled by a tyranny. It is one of the most dangerous places on the globe to be a journalist with several murdered for daring to report the truth. There is still considerable terror (rape, murder, torture, widespread invasion of civil liberties) being inflicted on Tamils, who make up a significant minority in that country and in areas where Tamils dominated, Mugabe-style taking over their properties are speedily occurring. It frankly is NOT a success story by any stretch of the imagination. Nirj Deva is a Sinhalese, who is close to the Rajapakse regime (along with Liam Fox).
@ H HEMMELIG
“All Tory MPs are anti-racist.”
Yeah, right.
@ BARNABY
I think you meant to put your post about Respect on the Bradford West thread, surely? That’s where the controversy has been raging.
Kokopops – your last post is vile
and very offensive.
I was talking about the international aspect of the UK.
You should apologise but I think you did mis-understand what I was saying
so I will forget it.
Frankly, I’m sick of this kind of rubbish on this site
- from the likes of Kokopops.
I have very strongly anti racist views and I think those statements are a disgrace.
I will not be using this site any more.
Thanks for everyone else’s contributions.
best wishes
Good bye.
Kokopops look at what you have done- We have now lost a respected contributor to this site now because of what you said to JJB.
@ Joe James B
I apologise, I was not accusing you of being a racist or anything like that but I disagreed with the point that you made, which was that the Conservative party and its supporters are more tolerant of immigrants than the electorate as a whole. I meant no ill towards you personally. It was just a disagreement on a point.
It looks like he has definitely gone….
Hi
Thanks
I will continue to use the site -
I hope my statement above doesn’t now appear to be a childish dramatic resignation threat stunt –
but please understand I was very offended at the time I read the post a bit further up
and couldn’t really understand how someone could think that about me.
Anyway, this site isn’t about us
and it’s too valuable not to use.
Thanks The Results, Kokopops
and thanks to all of you who provide detailed analysis over the years about all the seats, and politics in general,
which I for one would find hard not to rely on.
Robin – I was replying to an earlier post on this thread.
”Thanks The Results, Kokopops
and thanks to all of you who provide detailed analysis over the years about all the seats, and politics in general,
which I for one would find hard not to rely on.”
JJB, thank you very much mate.
Incidentally, I changed jobs 6 weeks ago, so haven’t been on much. I will get around to posting cllrs’ defections though, as I’m now 30+ behind!
Bailey would be a breath of fresh air for the seat IMO. Bring it on.
The white British percentage in the Waddon ward declined from 70.6% in 2001 to 46.0% in 2011.
White British, census results, 2001 / 2011:
Coulsdon East: 87.2% / 79.7%
Coulsdon West: 79.3% / 69.5%
Croham: 74.0% / 59.3%
Kenley: 81.3% / 70.4%
Purley: 73.7% / 60.8%
Sanderstead: 85.2% / 76.2%
Selsdon & Ballards: 84.2% / 75.1%
Waddon: 70.6% / 46.0%
Croydon South: 79.2% / 65.9%
Again, as with Beckenham, I wonder how many of those who are not white British are non-white. I suspect that there would be quite a lot of white other in this seat, though I wouldn’t surprised if the non-white population was quite high in Waddon at least.
I do know this area fairly well and find those figures quite remarkable, especially for wards like Purley and Kenley. There were articles in the weekend press about the decline in the white population in Outer London boroughs and the corresponding increase in Home Counties areas.
Mid-Sussex seems a favourite for ex-Croydonites.
The white overall percentage for Waddon is 55% in 2001 compared to 77% in 2011. At that rate the white overall percentage would go below 50% in a few months time.
(Got 2001 and 2011 mixed up there).
White overall, Croydon South:
2001: 84.9%
2011: 72.7%
Am really surprised at the figures for Waddon. This ward was being referred to as ‘demographically static’ in Labour Party circles as recently as the mid-naughties (though due to CFS I’ve not been down there in recent years).
Waddon in more detail:
2001:
TOTAL: 13,393
White British: 9,460
Black: 1,300
Asian: 1,094
White Other: 592
Mixed: 472
White Irish: 267
Chinese: 79
Other: 129
2011:
TOTAL: 17,077
White British: 7,855
Black: 3,305
Asian: 2,317
White Other: 1,336
Mixed: 1,281
Other: 419
Chinese: 290
White Irish/Gypsy/Traveller: 274
So white overall in Waddon declined from 77.0% to 55.4%. At that rate it would go below 50% some time next year.
I’m not sure why there is a surprise wrt to Waddon. It has the least desirable properties in Croydon South and is some of the more affordable and has the most amounts of social housing in Croydon South.
Purley and Kenley are no surprises, with more and more upwardly mobile Asians moving there and many of them sending their children to the grammar schools over in Wallington, which is inside the catchment areas and to the Private schools nearby. I bet, if any vote, it is more likely to be Tories and more likely a Cameron Tory than a Aidan Burley one.
Having said that, Waddon is fast changing and the problem there is voter apathy, especially amongst those you may assume to be Labour inclined. Having said that Waddon, I think will be gained by Labour in the local elections.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Claire Hilley, who is a Councillor in Waddon and Croydon South, would run as Tory candidate in 2015. Although Steve O’Connell, Kenley ward and GLA member for Croydon and Sutton and the most well-paid Councillor in the UK, according to the Daily Mail would I think apply for the seat, although in the past he has denied ever wanting to be an MP. Interesting thing about him, is the acres of press he gets from Croydon Advertiser (the Tory inclined one) and all of which tend to be fawning towards him, all seem like he is likely to be a candidate. Whenever Boris is talked up for this seat, the following week, there is always a Steve O’Connell flagging up something Boris is not doing for Croydon South.
Weird to see the ward I live in (Coulsdon East) as the most ‘white’ ward.
Was somewhere like Selsdon or Sanderstead previously more white than Coulsdon East?
Coulsdon East was the Whitest ward in Croydon in both 2001 and 1991. Sanderstead was on the crude basis on which these calculations were made in 1981