Croydon North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12466 (24.12%)
Labour: 28949 (56.02%)
Liberal Democrat: 7226 (13.98%)
UKIP: 891 (1.72%)
Green: 1017 (1.97%)
Christian: 586 (1.13%)
Independent: 111 (0.21%)
Others: 432 (0.84%)
Majority: 16483 (31.9%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 24193 (53.7%)
Conservative: 9982 (22.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7716 (17.1%)
Other: 3129 (6.9%)
Majority: 14210 (31.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9667 (22%)
Labour: 23555 (53.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7560 (17.2%)
Green: 1248 (2.8%)
UKIP: 770 (1.8%)
Other: 1047 (2.4%)
Majority: 13888 (31.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9752 (23.3%)
Labour: 26610 (63.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4375 (10.4%)
UKIP: 606 (1.4%)
Other: 539 (1.3%)
Majority: 16858 (40.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14274 (27.2%)
Labour: 32672 (62.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4066 (7.7%)
Referendum: 1155 (2.2%)
Other: 396 (0.8%)
Majority: 18398 (35%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Malcolm Wicks(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Jason Hadden (Conservative) Works as a solicitor advocate and for BPP.Malcolm Wicks(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Gerry Jerome (Liberal Democrat) Sutton councillor.
Shasha Khan (Green) Director in a family business and runs a dance music record label. Contested Croydon North 2005.
Jonathan Serter (UKIP)Novlette Williams (Christian Party) Mohammed Shaikh (Respect) Ben Stevenson (Communist)Mohamed Seyed-Mohamed (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 119419
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 25.2%
Over 60: 14.8%
Born outside UK: 32%
White: 50.7%
Black: 23.9%
Asian: 19.3%
Mixed: 4.6%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 59.5%
Hindu: 8.6%
Muslim: 9.1%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 5%
Graduates 16-74: 23.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.9%
Owner-Occupied: 63.7%
Social Housing: 18.3% (Council: 10.5%, Housing Ass.: 7.9%)
Privately Rented: 15.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.4%
White British, census results, 2001 / 2011:
Bensham Manor: 32.2% / 19.0%
Broad Green: 45.6% / 23.5%
Norbury: 42.7% / 24.1%
Selhurst: 46.1% / 26.1%
South Norwood: 56.3% / 37.7%
Thornton Heath: 43.6% / 24.8%
Upper Norwood: 53.5% / 36.9%
West Thornton: 31.1% / 16.9%
Croydon North: 43.5% / 26.0%
White overall, Croydon North:
2001: 50.7%
2011: 35.2%
Interesting how a seat like Tottenham still had a white overall majority in 2011 with 50.1% but Croydon North is now down to 35.2%. At the same time the white British percentage in Croydon North is still higher than Tottenham, with 26.0% and 22.4% respectively.
I think that shows why the Conservatives were able to win seats in the Norwoods in 2006 but not in Norbury.
Thornton Heath seemed to be majority non-white in the mid 90s.
No disrespect, Richard, but that might not be the reason why the Tories succeeded in the Norwoods but failed in Norbury. The Labour campaign in 2006 threw considerable resources at Norbury (it was part of the party’s 3-ward strategy which also included Waddon and New Addington because these three wards were erroneously considered to be ‘pivotal’) and in fact our candidates in South Norwood and Upper Norwood were not allowed to do anything to defend their own wards – with calamitous consequences.
That silly strategy was changed in 2010 and although I don’t have the figures I suspect that the Norwoods were just as heavily Labour in that year as was Norbury. Yes, Norbury has a higher BME population than the Norwoods but its BME vote is less solidly Labour. This is because most BME residents of Norbury are Asian whereas most BME residents of the Norwoods are African-Caribbean. (I don’t have the figures to hand but trust me – it’s true!).
Is there actually a heath in Thornton Heath and would it be better if Bensham Manor ward was called Thornton?
RH
While the Labour vote did increase in Norbury in 2006 there was also a significant drop in the Conservative support.
While the opposite happened in the Norwoods.
Did the Conservatives throw all their north Croydon resources into those two wards?
@Richard
No, I don’t think so – the Tories had a more comprehensive strategy.
The thing about Norbury was that there was a significant swing to Labour from 2002-6, i.e. completely the reverse of the London-wide trend. This is because Labour threw everything at it. If you look at 1994, 1998 and 2002 I believe I am right in saying that Labour’s majority was greater in South Norwood than in Norbury – this reversed in 2006 and (I think) reversed back in 2010. It was purely due to organisational factors.
Maybe it’s time for Labour to start expanding their campaigning into the Croydon South wards. They shouldn’t have much trouble winning in the rest of the borough with a few exceptions.
@ Andy JS
Labour will have no chance in Croydon South for the foreseeable future! You make the mistake of thinking demographic changes seen will automatically result in votes for Labour but that will not be the case.
I didn’t mean the constituency as a whole. I meant they could start entertaining hopes in some of the wards in local elections: obviously starting with Waddon and then moving on from there as time progresses.
Waddon was a safe-ish Labour ward until it was lost in 2006. It’s weird situation in Croydon, in that essentially whichever party (Labour/Conservatives) takes the majority of the 3 Waddon councillors, takes the Council. That one ward decides the Council and it’s hilarious watching the amount of attention given to it in the past few years e.g. brand new gym, flats
“That one ward decides the Council and it’s hilarious watching the amount of attention given to it in the past few years e.g. brand new gym, flats”
Yet at least from the A23 it still looks a pretty ugly place.
Labour’s going to win Waddon in 2014 no matter what.
As Kokopops says, there’s no point in them targetting any of the Croydon South wards.
Their top priority should be to target Fairfield and Ashburton and to turn them into solid Labour wards over the long term, going with the grain of the demographic changes we’re all discussing. Together with Waddon and winning back all the seats in New Addington, this would give Labour an impregnible base in Croydon and give them control of the council forever.
I reckon that the Tories’ decrease here at the by-election was not as bad as it might have been actually.
Many would probably agree that they still have a core vote locally even though the demographics have meant something of a long-term shift against them here and in other parts of Croydon.
When you look at the decreases in the Conservative share in the other by-elections, it paints something of a picture for me- Don’t know about the locals.