Mr Dare was a Cllr and 2010 Lewisam Mayoral candidate

From memory he was/went: Tory > LibDem > Veritas > BNP > English Democrats > Independent!

I should say that he did recommend a vote for Labour in the local elections held on the same day, but my guess is that as the ex-Tory MP he would have taken more votes from the Conservatives.

You’re right: Selsdon is much further away from the demographically changing north of the borough than is Fairfield.

Fairfield has changed a lot since the Falklands-influenced local election of 1982, when I canvassed the ward extensively on behalf of the SDP. Although we were crushed at the count by the Tories (they took 65%) we, the Alliance, did manage to come second (on 21%) ahead of Labour (on 13%).

So in that council election Tory votes out-numbered Labour votes by 5:1. Incredible, then, that Labour carried the ward in the 1997 general election, and again in 2001, and were even slightly ahead in 2005 (according to Labour’s extensive at-the-count sampling).

Broadly speaking, then, Fairfield pretty well reflects the relative party strengths in Croydon Central as a whole. Selsdon, on the other hand, is a whole new ball game: it will be the strongest Tory ward in the new Croydon East constituency (even surpassing Shirley Ward, I would say) and it replacing Fairfield will put the new constituency out of Labour’s reach unless something goes badly wrong for Cameron.

Bear in mind that most of the Pelling vote will go to the Tories (he has now joined the Labour Party) and Gavin Barlow will hope to build up something in the way of a personal vote as new MPs normally do.

Against that, it should be said that the north of the constituency is changing in Labour’s favour: Woodside has a rising black vote which resulted in the Tories narrowly missing out on a seat there in the 2006 locals (whereas in Woodside and in the now defunt neighbouring ward of Rylands the Tories were very competitive in the 1980s).

However, demographic change is happening too slowly. My reckoning: the contest for the new Croydon East seat is Gavin Barlow’s to lose.

NB: I was at the count in 2005 – and as a Labour teller it was absolute hell as we went through nine hours of counting and re-counting before losing by 75: our agent was in tears. Incidentally, he had informed the sitting Labour MP Geraint Davies that he would hold on by about 1,000 based upon our sampling. Geraint replied “But have you taken into account turnout, because the Fieldway estate only had a 40% poll?”. The answer was he hadn’t – he had instead assumed equal turnout across all polling districts. This really is a constituency where differential turnout punishes Labour.

Barwell seems secure in Croyson East as well.

Thanks Hemelig – I did wonder what had become of the old Carshalton & Wallington seat – and where its liberal vote would be dispersed

Coombe, depending on exactly where you went to, is split between this seat and Croydon East. Being in Croham / Sesdon and Ballards wards it is, as you say, in one of the Tory areas of Croydon.