Croydon Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19657 (39.51%)
Labour: 16688 (33.54%)
Liberal Democrat: 6553 (13.17%)
BNP: 1448 (2.91%)
UKIP: 997 (2%)
Green: 581 (1.17%)
Christian: 264 (0.53%)
Monster Raving Loony: 192 (0.39%)
Independent: 3377 (6.79%)
Majority: 2969 (5.97%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18679 (41.1%)
Conservative: 18362 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5862 (12.9%)
Other: 2519 (5.5%)
Majority: 317 (0.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19974 (40.8%)
Labour: 19899 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6384 (13%)
Green: 1036 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1066 (2.2%)
Other: 598 (1.2%)
Majority: 75 (0.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17659 (38.5%)
Labour: 21643 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5156 (11.2%)
UKIP: 545 (1.2%)
BNP: 449 (1%)
Other: 408 (0.9%)
Majority: 3984 (8.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21535 (38.6%)
Labour: 25432 (45.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6061 (10.9%)
Referendum: 1886 (3.4%)
Other: 885 (1.6%)
Majority: 3897 (7%)
Boundary changes: Minor changes to bring the constituency in line with ward boundaries. Part of Selsdon & Ballards, Croham and Waddon to Croydon South and parts of Broad Green and South Norwood to Croydon North.
Profile: This is central Croydon in political term if not in geographical terms (while it contains the commercial and shopping centre of Croydon, it is really the eastern part of the borough). Politically though it is half way between the safe Conservative Croydon South and what must now be considered the safely Labour Croydon North.
Croydon Central itself has sharp contrasts within it. Most of the seat is semi-detached, middle-of-the-road suburbia, places like Shirley and Heathfield, although to the north of the constituency is more ethnically mixed. At the southern end of the constituency is the large council estate of New Addington, a somewhat isolated development on the very edge of London that that has traditionally provided Labour with the core of their support in this seat, although in the most recent council elections they saw some support drifitng to the BNP.
Croydon Central was won by the Conservatives in 2005 with only a wafer thin minority, with subsequent boundary changes making it notionally Labour. The incumbent Conservative MP Andrew Pelling had been suspended from the party following his arrest on assault changes, which were subsequently dropped. He contested the 2010 election as an Independent (one of four MPs at the election who stood against their former parties as independents), finishing fourth but saving his deposit. The former Labour MP for the seat, Geraint Davies, defeated in 2005, is now MP for Swansea West.
Current MP: Gavin Barwell (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Former Conservative party director of operations and head of the party`s target seats campaign. Former Croydon councillor. Selected for Sutton and Cheam prior to the 2005 election, but withdrew due to family illness. MP for Croydon Central since 2010.
Gavin Barwell (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Former Conservative party director of operations, now heading the party`s target seats campaign. Croydon councillor. Selected for Sutton and Cheam prior to the 2005 election, but withdrew due to family illness.
Gerry Ryan (Labour) Telephone engineer. Croydon councillor. Contested Croydon South 2001.
Peter Lambell (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Reigate Grammar and Oxford Brookes University. Business analyst. Surrey councillor
Bernice Golberg (Green) Teaches at King`s College London. Contested Croydon Central 2005
Ralph Atkinson (UKIP) European Parliament researcher. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2005. Contested London region in 2004, 2009 European Parliamentary elections. Contested London list in 2008 Assembly elections.
Cliff Le May (BNP) Postal worker. Contested Londonwide list in 2004 GLA elections. Contested Uxbridge 2005. Contested Londonwide list in 2008 London elections.
James Gitau (Christian Party) Born Kiambaa, Kenya. Educated at Kamusinga High School. Pastor. Briefly became one of the first black members of the BNP before defecting to the Christian Party in 2010.
John Cartwright (Official Monster Raving Loony) born 1968. Educated at Trinity School and Royal Holloway College. Perennial candidate in Croydon local elections and by-elections. Contested Ealing Southall by-election 2007, Bromley & Chislehurst by-election 2006, Croydon Central 2005, 2001. OMRLP shadow minister for chocolate. 
Michael Castle (Independent)
Andrew Pelling (Independent) born 1959. Educated at Trinity School, Croydon and Oxford University. Former investment banker. Croydon councillor from 1982-2006, including 3 years as leader of the Conservative group. Member of the London Assembly for Sutton and Croydon 2000-2008. First elected as MP for Croydon Central in 2005. Was suspended from the Conservative party for two months following his arrest in Sept 2007 for assaulting his wife. In January 2008 it was announced he was suffering from clinical depression. He initially announced he would step down at the next election, but in 2010 confirmed he would stand as an independent 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 107320
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 16.8%
Born outside UK: 17.7%
White: 77.5%
Black: 10.2%
Asian: 7.1%
Mixed: 3.7%
Other: 1.5%
Christian: 65.8%
Hindu: 3.1%
Muslim: 3.9%
Full time students: 3.4%
Graduates 16-74: 21.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.3%
Owner-Occupied: 64.3%
Social Housing: 21.5% (Council: 13.5%, Housing Ass.: 7.9%)
Privately Rented: 11.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
Yes that’s a good point.
Although it will still work against the Tories if relatively well-off retired white working class Tory voters are booted out of their council houses to make way for a family of Somali immigrants.
Good points here,
I do remember Pete’s original post about New Addington.
( I think Ilford North is also a seat where there are demographic and political trends in opposite directions in different parts of the seat, but relatively few other posters or commentators seem to comment on that seat).
I suspect we’ll see Labour win again here not too far ahead, depending on what the next election result is which at present I really have little idea.
In 20 years’ time, Croydon Central will be a fairly dependable Labour seat, and Croydon South will be much more marginal than today. You’ve only got to drive through Purley to see how the area is changing.
Assuming of course that black middle class voters continue to shun the Tories.
HH,
in what way is Purley changing?
I came back through it on the train on Saturday, but didn’t stop.
I think probably some more black people do vote Tory but not in anything like the numbers to make a difference.
Just gradually looking more like Croydon than Surrey.
Starting to look a bit less smart, and a wider ethnic mix.
“Also the Tories’ rising fortunes in big council estate areas could come to a grinding halt if they carry forward proposals to end lifetime tenencies (this is very unfortunate, as I very much agree with the policy).”
HH
I’m not sure I do agree with it,
we need to think it through further.
There’s quite a lot of unintended consequences.
It’s not always practical to say to someone after about 20 years, get out of your house and start a mortgage (although they could rent privately).
Janet Daley, in the Telegraph yesterday, was warning that it could lead to even less pride in estates and even more problems with not building a community,
and incentives not to earn a bit more.
Clearly some people should move on when they can afford to, though.
I have no objection to saying could you move to a smaller house or flat when the family have left.
The Tories do have some good ideas to incentivise local authorities to accept more low cost housing, rather than having it imposed, and we hope this will stop them being NIMBYs as they’re involved closely in the decision.
As I say, I haven’t come to a definite view on the temporary contracts for council housing. If we did it, it has to be part of a range of proposals to increase and improve the stock of housing.
You’re probably right that it could alter the political trends in New Addington, depending on how many people would be affected.
It infuriates me that so many people believe it should be the job of the state to provide them with a house. It isn’t. The state should help people unable to help themselves but they should be expected to stand on their own two feet when their circumstances improve.
Private landlords can quite rightly move their tenants if they want to sell or change their property and state tenants should be no different.
In the past the weight of the council estate vote made Mrs T fearful of being too radical on this. The fact that most people on council estates now don’t vote at all might enable today’s government to be more radical.
Of course,
but we need to do more to get low cost housing built, whether for rent privately, or Housing Associations.
There are too many planning problems at the moment – then yes, we can get people to stand on their own feet.
I don’t think planning is really the problem, it is simply that it doesn’t make economic sense for builders to keep up with demand or need for housing. If they did that then their unit price would fall and they would end up making less profit.
There is, of course, nothing wrong with a private company making a profit – though I would like to see some action taken against those property companies that buy up excess land to prevent competitors building on it – but governments of all colours need to recognise that public interest (affordable property and a ready supply of homes) and private interest (high unit price and corporate profit) are in such conflict in an area like housing that private enterprise can never fully be the solution. The state or non-profit sectors must build more homes as well, otherwise overcrowding, excessive rents, poor quality homes and insecurity will remain a way of life for millions.
One of the bad things about Britain is the way people view property as an investment rather than a place to live.
This has had very negative consequences for the economy, and for sectors such as manufacturing industry which could have benefitted from investment that instead sits idle in property.
It has led to prices that are too high and volatile.
Despite being on the centre right I would strongly support taxing additional homes unless they are let out.
Thank you both for your replies, Benjamin, HH.
We need to get more built.
It’s normal for local communities to block developments (not always),
so we have to find ways of making it financially attractive for local authorities
, and make them more part of the decision.
I think there’s a range of different sectors of housing that could be used.
It’s better that developments are fairly small and scattered, but the demand is high.
Grant Shapps has pledged that more affordable housing will be built than under Labour. I hope it succeeds.