Crewe and Nantwich
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23420 (45.85%)
Labour: 17374 (34.01%)
Liberal Democrat: 7656 (14.99%)
BNP: 1043 (2.04%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.77%)
Independent: 177 (0.35%)
Majority: 6046 (11.84%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21857 (49%)
Conservative: 14363 (32.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8349 (18.7%)
Other: 58 (0.1%)
Majority: 7494 (16.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14162 (32.6%)
Labour: 21240 (48.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8083 (18.6%)
Majority: 7078 (16.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12650 (30.4%)
Labour: 22556 (54.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5595 (13.5%)
UKIP: 746 (1.8%)
Majority: 9906 (23.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13662 (27%)
Labour: 29460 (58.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5940 (11.7%)
Referendum: 1543 (3%)
Majority: 15798 (31.2%)
Boundary changes: Loses small parts of Acton and Audlem to Eddisbury, while gaining most of Leighton. The by-election will be fought on the old, existing boundaries.
Profile: Covers Crewe itself, the much smaller town of Nantwich and the rural villages to the South and East. Nantwich and villages like Wybunbury and Haslington are the sort of comfortable, affluent and historic areas that are normally associated with Cheshire – and are naturally Conservative. They are, however, cancelled out by Crewe itself – a railway town that grew up around the Grand Juntion Railway`s works in the nineteeth century and which remains industrial. Until 2002 it was also the site of the Rolls Royce motor works, and Bentleys continue to be built at the Pyms Lane factory here.
Historically Crewe and Nantwich was a marginal seat – Gwyneth Dunwoody held it by only a few hundred votes on its creation in 1983 and by slim majorities in 1987 and 1992. Only after boundary changes in 1997 did it become more secure. The Labour majority slipped in subsequent elections and it now represents the sort of seat that would be Conservative were they to win a decent sized Parliamentary majority.
Following Gwyneth Dunwoody`s death in 2008 the seat became the first Conservative gain in a by-election for 26 years
Current MP: Edward Timpson(Conservative) born 1973, Knutsford. Educated at Durham University. Barrister, specialising in family law. First elected in 2008 by-election (more information at They work for you)
Edward Timpson(Conservative) born 1973, Knutsford. Educated at Durham University. Barrister, specialising in family law. First elected in 2008 by-election (more information at They work for you)
David Williams (Labour) Trade union political officer and former agent for Gwyneth Dunwoody.
Roy Wood (Liberal Democrat) Educated at St Edwards College and Liverpool University. Teacher. Contested Birkenhead 1997, 2001
James Clutton (UKIP)Philip Williams (BNP) 
Michael Parsons (Independent) Cheshire East councillor.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97511
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 21%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 3.4%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76%
Social Housing: 15% (Council: 12.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 6.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.9%
2008 By-election
Gwyneth Dunwoody died on the 17th April and the by-election was on the 22nd May, an unusually short campaign. It was won by the Conservative party on a 17.6% swing, their first by-election gain since 1982. The Labour party nominated the daughter of the former MP, Tamsin Dunwoody, previously a member of the Welsh Parliament. The Conservatives had already selected Edward Timpson, a member of the Timpson shoe-repair family, while the Liberal Democrats replaced their previously selected candidate with Elizabeth Shenton, a Newcastle under Lyme councillor. The Labour party pursued a controversial campaign, branding Edward Timpson as a toff and using mocked up pictures of him in a top hat, and photos of his large house in their literature, a strategy that was widely perceived as having backfired. The Conservatives meanwhile focused upon the abolition of the 10p tax rate, halfway through the campaign the government announced an increase in the personal tax allowance in an attempt to off-set this, but with little reduction in anti-government feeling.
Official statement of persons nominated
By-election result
Ed Timpson (Conservative): 20539 (49.5%) +16.9
Tamsin Dunwoody (Labour): 12679 (30.6%) -18.2
Elizabeth Shenton (Liberal Democrat): 6040 (14.6%) -4.0
Mike Natrass (UKIP): 922 (2.2%)
Robert Smith (Green): 359 (0.9%)
David Roberts (Eng Dem): 275 (0.7%)
The Flying Brick (Loony): 236 (0.6%)
Mark Walklate (Ind): 217 (0.5%)
Paul Thorogood (Cut Tax): 118 (0.3%)
Gemma Garrett (Ind): 113 (0.3%)
Majority: 7860 (18.9%)
By-election Candidates: 
Tamsin Dunwoody (Labour) born 1958, Devon, daughter of Gwyneth Dunwoody, MP for Crewe and Nantwich and John Dunwoody, MP for Falmouth and Camborne. Educated at Grey Coat Hospital and the University of Kent. Former hospital manager. Member of the Welsh Assembly for Preseli Pembrokeshire from 2003-2007. Deputy minister for environment and deputy minister for economic development in the the Welsh assembly government from 2005-2007.
Elizabeth Shenton (Liberal Democrat) Former banker. Newcastle under Lyme councillor since 2006.Edward Timpson (Conservative) born 1973, Knutsford. Educated at Durham University. Barrister, specialising in family law.
Mike Nattrass (UKIP) born 1945, Leeds. Chartered surveyer. UKIP MEP for the West Midlands Region since 2004. Contested Dudley West by-election 1994 for the New Britain Party. Contested Solihull 1997 for the Referendum party. Contested Sutton Coldfield 2001, Stone 205. Deputy leader of UKIP 2002-2006.
The Flying Brick(Official Monster Raving Loony) Real name Nick Delves. Shadow Minister for the Abolition of Gravity. Contested Derbyshire West 1997, 2001, 2005.
Gemma Garrett (No description) Miss Great Britain for the year 2008, having been runner up in the previous year`s competition. Standing for the unregistered “Beauties for Britain” party.
Rob Smith (Green) Educated at the University of Liverpool. Town Planning advisor.
David Roberts (English Democrat)
Mark Walklate (No description) Former Conservative.
Paul Thorogood (Cut Tax on Diesel and Petrol) Educated at Alec Hunter Humanities College and Southampton university. Journalist.
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On a UNS, Labour could lose this seat without getting a rock-solid majority.
Or rather, Labour could lose this seat even with a small Tory majority.
“Like the Tories losing Esher” well they did lose Christchurch, Romsey & Newbury in By-elections so anythings possible… When it comes to losing rock solid seats The Tories have it down to a fine art. Perhaps its well overdue that the other parties can enjoy this experience for a change, starting with Crewe & Nantwich.
Early suggestion were that the Tories will win this seat with a 1000 majority but if the latest polls are to be believe then it must be nearer 2000 or even 3000 allowing for a reduced turnout. Does this sound possible?
From what I’ve seen and read so far, the result is about 90% certain to be a Tory majority of between 1,000 and 5,000 and about 80% certain to be a Tory majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, A 3,000 vote majority seems the most likely outcome if I had to go for a more exact figure.
“When it comes to losing rock solid seats The Tories have it down to a fine art. Perhaps its well overdue that the other parties can enjoy this experience for a change, starting with Crewe & Nantwich.”
Ummm… I think Labour has already had plenty of experience of losing ‘rock-solid’ seats in both by-elections & general elections.
I’ll go with Andy Stidwell’s prediction of a 3,000 Tory majority here. So I’ll blame him if it doesn’t transpire.
You can make a prediction on http://www.politicshome.com. The prize is £500.
I think a swing of about 13%,
so it’s Workington 1976 stakes,
but not Walsall N, Mid Staffs, SE Staffs, or Dudley W.
The circumstances of this by-election are very sad, and Gwyneth Dunwoody’s daughter is standing.
Personally I think by-elections are strange animals and the local elections already provide enough evidence that the Tories are doing well, but this by-election has been hyped up into something we now need, so that’s politics I suppose – perception can become reality.
I’m slightly surprised how badly the Lib Dems are doing – if indeed that turns out to be the case.
The real point with By-elections though, is that they are amazing at occasioning big shifts in the political narractive, because of the media focus and recriminations at their outcome. Because they are Westminster seats, they seem somehow harder to dismiss than local elections, and they can occasion analysis of a particular area in the country and what it means politically. In this case, the Tories gaining Crewe will be interpreted as a gain in a Labour Northern stronghold- even though quite frankly it quite patently isn’t- it’s just a safish Labour seat.
We saw the fallout from the Ealing Southall By-election last year. That was really the event that began to fuel all that election speculation…Something similar may happen at Crewe. So despite the many local and chorlogical factors which should make them relatively unimportant, the interpretation by-elections are given make them extremely important. The media circus round Crewe has been the largest I’ve ever seen for a by-election, so expect the political significance to also the be largest.
Daily Telegraph is reporting that, as a result of the latest canvas returns, Labour is preparing itself for a heavy defeat. Maybe my prediction of 3,000 was a bit on the conservative side.
I don’t know.
I wouldn’t want to assume anything large – and I’m not sure turnout would be great, meaning 6 or 7 % could still be only about 1,800-2,000.
But if the Tory “momentum” continues and they win it convincingly, maybe they can even hold it in the General Election, which so far, I have doubted.
Even so, a win here would be very good for the Tories.
I think one can reasonably say, four years ago they might have been beaten into third place.
Labour just held on in 1983 by 290 votes with Michael Foot as leader, but I’ve had a look at Rallings&Thrasher’s booklet from 1995 and it shows that the boundary changes then increased the notional 1992 Labour majority from 4.4% to 8.7% so the current seat should be safer for Labour than in the 1980s.
I have revised my prediction based on my recent feelings about how things are going.
With such a huge campaign, I wonder if turnout may even reach 45%?
Con 13,538 42.0%
Lab 10,315 32.0%
LD 6,447 20.0%
Oth 1,934 6.0%
Conservative Majority= 3,223 (10.0%)
I can’t quite bring myself to believe that the Lib Dem vote will collapse to 12%, given their natural by-election advantage of the past couple of decades. So I have given them a fairly buoyant 20%. However, if the Lib Dem vote is much lower, that will probably only increase the Tory lead.
Even if Labour do a bit better than this prediction and win 35% to the Tories 37%, I would expect a fairly clear Tory win-perhaps even higher still if the Lib Dems do collapse.
The Telegraph report look to me like a piece of Labour expectations management. The story is intended to big up the prospects of a large Tory win. When it turns out closer Labour will crow that the poll are not telling the real picture – a Labour loss in a safe-ish seat becomes a Party win because the Tories haven’t totally thrashed them!
On the Lib Dems – why should we not expect their vote to drop? Not only are they not doing especially well in the polls but they more or less gave up on Crewe in the first week of campaigning – Lib Dem voters will switch Tory here.
My guess is that Shaun understates both the Conservative and Lib Dem votes in his prediction – mine would be Con 45%, Lab 35%, LD 14%, Other 6%. However, I think the turnout will be lower than Shaun predicts so his prediction of a majority might be about right.
But what do I know?
I think ASC is right on a lot of this.
The Labour Party do seem to be more cautious when they make predictions, particularly if they think they’re not going to do well – so they can handle the fall out, or be pleasantly surprised. It didn’t work this May because the results were indeed awful for the government – by a significant margin more I think than any of the Tories here would have predicted.
Shaun, your prediction is perilously close to my own entry in the PoliticalBetting competition. Thankfully it isn’t identical.