Crewe and Nantwich
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21857 (49%)
Conservative: 14363 (32.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8349 (18.7%)
Other: 58 (0.1%)
Majority: 7494 (16.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14162 (32.6%)
Labour: 21240 (48.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8083 (18.6%)
Majority: 7078 (16.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12650 (30.4%)
Labour: 22556 (54.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5595 (13.5%)
UKIP: 746 (1.8%)
Majority: 9906 (23.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13662 (27%)
Labour: 29460 (58.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5940 (11.7%)
Referendum: 1543 (3%)
Majority: 15798 (31.2%)
Boundary changes: Loses small parts of Acton and Audlem to Eddisbury, while gaining most of Leighton. The by-election will be fought on the old, existing boundaries.
Profile: Covers Crewe itself, the much smaller town of Nantwich and the rural villages to the South and East. Nantwich and villages like Wybunbury and Haslington are the sort of comfortable, affluent and historic areas that are normally associated with Cheshire - and are naturally Conservative. They are, however, cancelled out by Crewe itself - a railway town that grew up around the Grand Juntion Railway’s works in the nineteeth century and which remains industrial. Until 2002 it was also the site of the Rolls Royce motor works, and Bentleys continue to be built at the Pyms Lane factory here.
Historically Crewe and Nantwich was a marginal seat - Gwyneth Dunwoody held it by only a few hundred votes on its creation in 1983 and by slim majorities in 1987 and 1992. Only after boundary changes in 1997 did it become more secure. The Labour majority slipped in subsequent elections and it now represents the sort of seat that would be Conservative were they to win a decent sized Parliamentary majority.
Following Gwyneth Dunwoody’s death in 2008 the seat became the first Conservative gain in a by-election for 26 years.
Current MP: Edward Timpson (Con) born 1973, Knutsford. Educated at Durham University. Barrister, specialising in family law. First elected in 2008 by-election.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97511
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 21%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 3.4%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76%
Social Housing: 15% (Council: 12.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 6.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.9%
2008 By-election
Gwyneth Dunwoody died on the 17th April and the by-election was on the 22nd May, an unusually short campaign. It was won by the Conservative party on a 17.6% swing, their first by-election gain since 1982. The Labour party nominated the daughter of the former MP, Tamsin Dunwoody, previously a member of the Welsh Parliament. The Conservatives had already selected Edward Timpson, a member of the Timpson shoe-repair family, while the Liberal Democrats replaced their previously selected candidate with Elizabeth Shenton, a Newcastle under Lyme councillor. The Labour party pursued a controversial campaign, branding Edward Timpson as a toff and using mocked up pictures of him in a top hat, and photos of his large house in their literature, a strategy that was widely perceived as having backfired. The Conservatives meanwhile focused upon the abolition of the 10p tax rate, halfway through the campaign the government announced an increase in the personal tax allowance in an attempt to off-set this, but with little reduction in anti-government feeling.
Official statement of persons nominated
By-election result
Ed Timpson (Conservative): 20539 (49.5%) +16.9
Tamsin Dunwoody (Labour): 12679 (30.6%) -18.2
Elizabeth Shenton (Lib Dem): 6040 (14.6%) -4.0
Mike Natrass (UKIP): 922 (2.2%)
Robert Smith (Green): 359 (0.9%)
David Roberts (Eng Dem): 275 (0.7%)
The Flying Brick (Loony): 236 (0.6%)
Mark Walklate (Ind): 217 (0.5%)
Paul Thorogood (Cut Tax): 118 (0.3%)
Gemma Garrett (Ind): 113 (0.3%)
Majority: 7860 (18.9%)
By-election Candidates: 
Tamsin Dunwoody (Labour) born 1958, Devon, daughter of Gwyneth Dunwoody, MP for Crewe and Nantwich and John Dunwoody, MP for Falmouth and Camborne. Educated at Grey Coat Hospital and the University of Kent. Former hospital manager. Member of the Welsh Assembly for Preseli Pembrokeshire from 2003-2007. Deputy minister for environment and deputy minister for economic development in the the Welsh assembly government from 2005-2007.
Elizabeth Shenton (Liberal Democrat) Former banker. Newcastle under Lyme councillor since 2006.Edward Timpson (Conservative) born 1973, Knutsford. Educated at Durham University. Barrister, specialising in family law.
Mike Nattrass (UKIP) born 1945, Leeds. Chartered surveyer. UKIP MEP for the West Midlands Region since 2004. Contested Dudley West by-election 1994 for the New Britain Party. Contested Solihull 1997 for the Referendum party. Contested Sutton Coldfield 2001, Stone 205. Deputy leader of UKIP 2002-2006.
The Flying Brick(Official Monster Raving Loony) Real name Nick Delves. Shadow Minister for the Abolition of Gravity. Contested Derbyshire West 1997, 2001, 2005.
Gemma Garrett (No description) Miss Great Britain for the year 2008, having been runner up in the previous year’s competition. Standing for the unregistered “Beauties for Britain” party.
Rob Smith (Green) Educated at the University of Liverpool. Town Planning advisor.
David Roberts (English Democrat)
Mark Walklate (No description) Former Conservative.
Paul Thorogood (Cut Tax on Diesel and Petrol) Educated at Alec Hunter Humanities College and Southampton university. Journalist.
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I don’t believe the Tory vote will be 15% higher at the next general election compared to the last. Maybe 10% higher is possible. Obviously that means a close result.
Clearly since Labour lost the by-election so disastrously a Tory hold is more than possible. But a Labour regain is almost equally likely. I agree, likely to be very close.
I think there is more of a liklihood of Tory hold here, as the economy is now starting to spin out of control, i can’t see a full repair by May 2010. Quite a large part of the traditional Labour vote in Crewe will come back, but may only cut the Tory lead in half.
Out of interest, but still on topic, this is an election scenario i created of the C&N by-election for a game called Prime Minister Forever. This is the only C&N related one i have done.
http://i535.photobucket.com/albums/ee358/pmfe/01-12-200801-45-51.jpg
how do you create a by election scenario on prime minister 4 ever?
Hi Amit, didn’t notice your reply. The scenario’s are made using coding via notpad files. What’s different in the by-election is i can only gather the overall constituency result, but can’t find individual results from parts of the constituency like Crewe or Nantwich anywhere online.
So what i have to is find the most recent council election results, insert those results, and then tweaking them until i get it to more accurately show the actual overall result. Though, not perfect, the party percentages are a little random as they can vary round about the actual percentage a party polled.
The local Conservative branch is being run quite well by all accounts. There is a lot of work being done and Edward Timpson is putting a lot of effort into making sure he hangs onto the seat.
A Conservative hold.
This seat had a very similar Labour majority to East Renfrewshire in 2005.
In 1992, the Conservatives had a 11688 in Eastwood (identical boundaries to East Renfrewshire today) and Labour had a majority of 2695 in Crewe & Nantwich (4871 notional 1992 Labour majority on 1997 - 2010 boundaries).
In 1979, Labour had a majority of 4237 in Crewe, which became a notional 3634 Conservative 1992 majority on the post 1983 boundaries.
“I beliebe Ian Gow was a very popular MP in Eastbourne and the circumstances which caused the byelection there might have been expected to eleict even further sympathy, but ofcourse the Tory candidate there was generally reckoned to have performed badly and the seat was lost badly.”
If Ian Gow was indeed a popular MP, then people would have been voting for the man, not the party, making them *less* likely to vote for someone just because he happened to share the same party label as Mr Gow.
I recall that there was some suggestion at the time that Ian Gow’s spouse would defend the by election.
There have been cases where widows have retained their husbands seats -
Irene Adams in Paisley North in 1990.
Helen McElthone in Glasgow Queens Park in 1982 (who was selected on the basis that she would be a caretaker MP only and would not oppose the MP for Glasgow Central whose seat would annex most of Queens Park in 1983).
The widow of Walter Elliot (Katherine Elliot) was defeated at the 1958 Glasgow Kelvingrove By Election, but this seat was very marginal.
And since then Trish Law
Mrs Law, of course, stood in the Assembly by-election (and subsequent scheduled election) rather than the Westminster by-election, where Mr Law’s former agent was his successor
Johnny, is your scenario available for download anywhere?