Crawley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21264 (44.76%)
Labour: 15336 (32.28%)
Liberal Democrat: 6844 (14.41%)
BNP: 1672 (3.52%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.91%)
Green: 598 (1.26%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.56%)
Majority: 5928 (12.48%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 16411 (39.1%)
Conservative: 16374 (39%)
Liberal Democrat: 6503 (15.5%)
Other: 2685 (6.4%)
Majority: 37 (0.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12718 (32.2%)
Labour: 19488 (49.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5009 (12.7%)
UKIP: 1137 (2.9%)
Other: 1170 (3%)
Majority: 6770 (17.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16043 (31.8%)
Labour: 27750 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 4141 (8.2%)
Referendum: 1931 (3.8%)
Other: 552 (1.1%)
Majority: 11707 (23.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Henry Smith (Conservative)
Henry Smith (Conservative) Chris Oxlade (Labour)John Vincent (Liberal Democrat)Phil Smith (Green)
Chris French (UKIP) Owns a small financial services business.Richard Trower (BNP)Arshad Khan (Justice)Andrew Hubner (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99744
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 11.6%
White: 88.5%
Black: 1.1%
Asian: 8.3%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 67.3%
Hindu: 3.4%
Muslim: 4.4%
Sikh: 0.7%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.3%
Social Housing: 23.4% (Council: 20.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.6%
I agree with most of the comments made above. Crawley is by far the safer of (Crawley, Harlow & Stevenage constituencies). I was surprised Stevenage went blue last time. If it was based just on the town itself (like Crawley is) it certainly would not have done – Harlow also.
Crawley is a very polarised constituency where Bewbush & Broadfield are a world away from Pound Hill & Worth, so while its now doubtful Copthorne will be within the boundary for 2015 I imagine the Conservatives will just hold on. The priority though before then will be to hang on to the council in 2014.
If Labour stuck a red rosette on a Monkey the people of Middlesborough would vote for it.
Crawley 2015 Most likely
Con 45
Lab 39
LD 9
‘I agree with most of the comments made above. Crawley is by far the safer of (Crawley, Harlow & Stevenage constituencies). I was surprised Stevenage went blue last time. If it was based just on the town itself (like Crawley is) it certainly would not have done – Harlow also. ‘
Baeed on 2010, all three seem to be pretty safe for the Tories – not sure whether its due to the long-term trend of more working class people voting Tory, or whether because new towns are prone to volatile swings – as all three seats had fairly healthy Labour majorities in 97 and 2001
Stevenage requires a significantly smaller swing to return to Labour, and I think it’s a higher swing area (remember 1979 for example) to some extent. You’d still have to describe it as a marginal whereas Harlow & Crawley are now only semi-marginals
” I was surprised Stevenage went blue last time. If it was based just on the town itself (like Crawley is) it certainly would not have done – Harlow also.”
Although Labour won a small plurality of the vote in the local elections on the same day, my estimates suggest that the Conservatives would narrowly have carried the borough on the parliamentary vote. I think it may be just about possible that Labour were ahead and that the entire Conservative majority came from the (now rather few) wards from outside the town but I think unlikely. In the case of Harlow I think it absolutely certain that the Conservatives carried the town as there are simply not enough voters outside to have accounted for a majority of 5,000
I have a feeling Harlow might be more marginal next time round, albeit slightly. There is a great deal of investment in the town and enough new housing going up to keep it Tory in 2015 but there is this strong core Labour vote that just won’t shift. Some of the voters who voted Tory in 2010 must have switched their vote to Labour during the local elections this year to allow Labour to win the council. Although I understand that some people do vote differently at generals than they do locals.
Crawley is definately the safer seat.
Yes I’d agree with that. Crawley now has at least 4 wards which are, in all but years of utter disaster, completely safe for the Tories – Furnace Green, Maidenbower & the 2 Pound Hill wards. You could almost add 3 Bridges to that. Labour on the other hand now appears to be completely safe only in Bewbush & Langley Green. So a lot hangs on the remaining more marginal wards like Gossops Green, Ifield (which was very safe Labour not many years ago) and others. Harlow as LB says has fewer safe Tory wards & seemingly a stronger core Labour vote.
A Cairns is suggesting the Conservative vote will go up in 2015 from 44.76 to 45%. I would highly doubt this unless the economy recovers – which is unlikely. I can see another 2005 scenario with maybe Henry holding on by 900 or so votes. He does appear to be a very active and popular MP though.