Coventry South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15352 (33.43%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8278 (18.03%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.85%)
Green: 639 (1.39%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
Majority: 3845 (8.37%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19170 (46.1%)
Conservative: 12618 (30.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7327 (17.6%)
Other: 2471 (5.9%)
Majority: 6552 (15.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12394 (30.5%)
Labour: 18649 (45.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7228 (17.8%)
UKIP: 829 (2%)
Other: 1585 (3.9%)
Majority: 6255 (15.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11846 (29.5%)
Labour: 20125 (50.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5672 (14.1%)
Other: 2453 (6.1%)
Majority: 8279 (20.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14558 (29%)
Labour: 25511 (50.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4617 (9.2%)
Referendum: 943 (1.9%)
Other: 4495 (9%)
Majority: 10953 (21.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jim Cunningham(Labour) Born 1941, Coatbridge. Educated at Columba High School. Former Rolls Royce engineer. Coventry councillor 1972-1992. Leader of Coventry council 1988-1992. MP for Coventry South East since 1992, Coventry South since 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Kevin Foster (Conservative) born 1978. Former paralegal currently working full time as a cabinet member on coventry city council. Coventy city councillor since 2002. Jim Cunningham(Labour) Born 1941, Coatbridge. Educated at Columba High School. Former Rolls Royce engineer. Coventry councillor 1972-1992. Leader of Coventry council 1988-1992. MP for Coventry South East since 1992, Coventry South since 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Brian Patton (Liberal Democrat) Former Coventry councillor for the Labour party.
Stephen Gray (Green) 
Mark Taylor (UKIP)Judy Griffiths (Socialist Alternative)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97572
Male: 49.8%
Female: 50.2%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 13.4%
White: 85.5%
Black: 1.6%
Asian: 9.3%
Mixed: 1.6%
Other: 2%
Christian: 64.7%
Hindu: 2.6%
Muslim: 3.7%
Sikh: 3.2%
Full time students: 15%
Graduates 16-74: 20.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.6%
Owner-Occupied: 67.8%
Social Housing: 19.7% (Council: 8.4%, Housing Ass.: 11.2%)
Privately Rented: 8.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.4%
““Even though it was more Tory than Redcar is today, there’s no doubt that in 2010, had it still existed, it would have been won pretty comfortably by Labour”
Given it included the whole of the current Redcar seat (LD majority 5214) and only about half of Middlesbrough S & Cleveland East (Lab majorty 10798 over LDs), then even allowing that it may have contained the weaker parts of the latter for the LDs, its clear Labour’s lead would not have been comfortable if one were to construct a notional result on the old boundaries – probably a majority of about 2,000 at most
That’s quite right – I was thinking about the Lab v Con contest & forgetting all about the LDs!
Apologies my fault, for some reason I had it in my head Redcar went blue in ’83. Mind you Labour lost some pretty bizarre seats that year (Newcastle Central Tory????)
A North central Newcastle seat (Jesmond N +S, Dene, Gosforth E, W, Parklands and one or two else to make up the numbers) would have been safely LD in 2010 mind, somehow the seats were always made up so Labour had a consistant lead over the LDs in all 3.
Newcastle Central wasn’t that bizzare a Tory seat in 1983 given that it was largely based on the old Tory Newcastle North and had a notional Tory majority in 1979.
Presumably it must have lost Castle and gained the city centre area though?
I think that’s a Pete question. I’m afraid I have no idea off the top of my head.
‘Newcastle Central wasn’t that bizzare a Tory seat in 1983 given that it was largely based on the old Tory Newcastle North and had a notional Tory majority in 1979.’
The Newcastle Central your referring to – which was actually won by Piers Morgan – one of the many Tories who became embroliled in a sex scandal between 92-97 – was one of the most misleading seat names ever
Most of Central Newcastle was in Tyne Bridge, with this seat to the North of it
They should have stuck with Newcastle North – but it’s certainly a seat that whatever its name today, you could never imagine the Tories winning it again
Piers Merchant, mayhaps?
There was a fairly significant swing to Labour in Newcastle Central in 1983 despite Piers Merchant holding the seat against a left-wing candidate who refused to shake his hand as the result was announced.
Notional 1979 majority: Con – 5,790
1983 majority: Con – 2,228
Tim’s basically right on this. The 1983 vintage Newcastle Central was basically the old North with some alterations, and the 1983 vintage Newcastle North was basically very similar to the old West. The city centre formed Tyne Bridge with inner areas of Gateshead.
“The Newcastle Central your referring to – which was actually won by Piers Morgan – one of the many Tories who became embroliled in a sex scandal between 92-97″
That somewhat Freudian error is very funny.
Actually, what is not commonly known about the Piers Merchant sex scandal is that his wife was at it as well. At least at that time, they were an open marriage. So at least it wasn’t the standard politician doing the dirty on his wife.
Perversely, Beckenham Conservatives were more upset by this twist of the tale than had it been a normal love rat MP situation. This possibly accounts for him being forced to resign whereas other such MPs kept their seats.
‘Perversely, Beckenham Conservatives were more upset by this twist of the tale than had it been a normal love rat MP situation. This possibly accounts for him being forced to resign whereas other such MPs kept their seats.’
I meant Merchant
I thought it was because the girl he was involved with was so much younger than him although had no idea that his wife was ‘at it’ too
“This possibly accounts for him being forced to resign whereas other such MPs kept their seats”
I thought it was more to do with the letters published in the News of the World after the election in which Merchant basically slagged off everybody in his local party and constituency and said that they were all idiots and dunces for having believed him.
Certainly, his resignation came pretty quick after that publication, if I recall.
In the circumstances Jacqui Lait was lucky to cling onto Beckenham in November 1997 ( the same day as that dreadful Tory result in Winchester). If the polls were anything to go by it was going to be an easy Labour gain.
I sometimes forget that Piers Merchant actually passed away in 2009 from cancer at the age of 58. Sir William Elliott, who had been MP for the old Newcastle North until 1983, passed away aged 90 only last year.
‘If the polls were anything to go by it was going to be an easy Labour gain.’
I don’t ever remember that
Beckenhem has always been quite a strong Conservative seat and given that Labour had already failed to take the much more marginal Uxbridge in a post-97 landslide by-election, I can’t beliebve they – or anyone else – would have exoected to win here
I also had absolutely no idea that Piers Merchant was dead – RIP
“I don’t ever remember that”
How quickly they forget.
Labour were approaching 60% of the vote in some pretty disreputable polling companies at that time and around 50% in others.
On the back of the Merchant disgrace and nature of his resignation, I remember that Labour were saying early on that they might win it. I have to say, I remember thinking from his speech on the night that the Labour candidate would have been unbearable as an MP so I’m glad we’ve never heard from him again despite his good performance there. I wonder what happened to him?
As for Piers Merchant, I think that because of his low profile since 1997 and bcause he looked so young at the time of his death, many were not aware of it. I think he was active for UKIP before he died.
I speak here as someone who lives in Beckenham.
The 1997 boundary changes made the seat much safer for the Conservatives, by adding in West Wickham from the old Ravensbourne seat. This was estimated to have added over 5000 to the Tory majority.
Therefore on the 1983-92 boundaries Labour would certainly have won Beckanham in the November 1997 by-election.
The 1997 general election on previous boundaries would have been very close, maybe Con hold by a few hundred.
Can I also add that Piers Merchant was widely regarded as a first class constituency MP, both in Beckenham and Newcastle.
My own politics are much closer to his successor Jacqui Lait, but as a hard-working constituency champion Piers was worth a thousand Jacqui Laits.
Despite his sex scandal he had a strong personal vote, which disappeared in the by-election.
Last year Labour won all but 3 seats in Coventry. The 3 Tory seats were:
Earlsdon (1.9%)
Cheylesmore (5.9%)
Wainbody (9.7%)
Wainbody will probably stay Tory but Labour might have a chance in the other two unless there’s a strong personal vote for the Conservative candidates.
That would be mid 1990s style result but its certainly quite possible. There is also the last LD seat being defended in Upper Stoke which is a certain gonner and also the last Socialist in St Michaels. As this is Dave Nellist himself, I’d still put him favourite to hold on
I get the impression that Cheylesmore stayed Tory for a long while, was won fairly regularly by Labour for a number of years from 1990ish onwards but then reverted to being a regularly Tory ward. I don’t know how true that perception is, however. I do seem to remember that it was in the Coventry SE seat and that it was by some way the strongest ward for the Tories in the constituency while it existed.
I wonder if a lot of Coventry Tories thought they’d win the SE division in 1983 with a militant candidate standing for Labour.
At the time there wasn’t much of a feeling that it was possible. SE never seemed marginal & had some very strong Labour areas including the city centre & Binley/Willenhall and the assumption was that Nellist would win without difficulty even given Labour’s extremely weak position in the country at that time.
I remember watching a BBC programme a few years ago where it was revealed that at one time MI5 had been carrying out surveillance on Nellist’s supporters.
Although my politics couldnt be more different from Dave Nellist, i did always have a certain amount of respect for the man. In particular he put his money where his mouth was literally in only taking a ‘worker’s wage’ (i’m not sure if Terry Fields did the same).
Just to clarify – all Militant / Socialist Party representatives take the average wage of a worker, whether elected to Parliament, or to a trade union position. Our other two ex-MPs, Pat Wall and Terry Fields both did the same. It is an important principle of our party – we are not in politics for personal gain.
Just going down to St Michaels now to campaign for Dave. I think we will retain the seat – there are lots of bright yellow Socialist Alternative window posters around and very few in that ward for Labour that I have seen.
Why are you campaigning for him if your politics couldn’t be more different.
They aren’t – I was quoting from an earlier post by Pete Whitehead (UKIP supporter) – nice to see that he respects the stance of Militant / SP on a worker’s wage, even though politically he disagrees with us.
So how many council seat does the Socialist Alternative have?
Only Dave Nellist. They used to hld all three seats in St Michael’s
Which seats have included St Michael’s ward since 1918? (There was of course a Coventry seat before then though I’m not sure if its boundaries extended to cover areas beyond the city itself)
Well of course there was only a single Coventry seat right up until 1945 when it was split into two. I think the cantral area now covered by St Michaels ward was then put in Coventry West and then Coventry South from 1950 to 1974, Coventry SE 1974-97 and Coventry South again of course since 1997
Greetings all. Taken me some time to plough all this speculation, analysis of statistics, trends and prediction of results. Very helpful!! Hoping to stand again in 2014… but where?… all will be revealed in time. Thanks. Mark Taylor. (Coventry South 2010 parliamentary UKIP candidate and Wainbody 2011 / 2012 local).
Taken me a long time to plough through all this analysis, speculation, prediction and forcast of results. Very helpful. Hoping to be back for 2014… but where?… All will be revealed in time. Thanks. Mark Taylor (UKIP parliamentary candidate 2012, Wainbody locals; 2011/2012).