Coventry North West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 13648 (29.31%)
Labour: 19936 (42.82%)
Liberal Democrat: 8344 (17.92%)
BNP: 1666 (3.58%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.78%)
Green: 497 (1.07%)
Independent: 640 (1.37%)
Others: 534 (1.15%)
Majority: 6288 (13.51%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19905 (48%)
Conservative: 11151 (26.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7619 (18.4%)
Other: 2816 (6.8%)
Majority: 8754 (21.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11627 (26.8%)
Labour: 20942 (48.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7932 (18.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.6%)
UKIP: 766 (1.8%)
Other: 615 (1.4%)
Majority: 9315 (21.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11018 (25.9%)
Labour: 21892 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5832 (13.7%)
UKIP: 650 (1.5%)
Other: 3159 (7.4%)
Majority: 10874 (25.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14300 (26.3%)
Labour: 30901 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5690 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1269 (2.3%)
Other: 2162 (4%)
Majority: 16601 (30.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Geoffrey Robinson(Labour) Born 1938, Sheffield. Educated at Emanuel School and Cambridge University. Proir to his election was Chairman of Jaguar, and later founded a multimillion pound aerospace technology company. Owner of the New Statesman between 1996-2008. Chairman of Coventry City FC 2005-2007. MP for Coventry North-West since 1976 by-election. Paymaster General 1997-1998, he resigned after it was revealed he had leant Peter Mandleson £373,000 to buy a house (more information at They work for you)
Gary Ridley (Conservative) born 1980, Coventry. Educated at Cardinal Newman RC school and Coventry University. Consultant and director of Coventry transport museum. Coventry City councillor since 2002.Geoffrey Robinson(Labour) Born 1938, Sheffield. Educated at Emanuel School and Cambridge University. Proir to his election was Chairman of Jaguar, and later founded a multimillion pound aerospace technology company. Owner of the New Statesman between 1996-2008. Chairman of Coventry City FC 2005-2007. MP for Coventry North-West since 1976 by-election. Paymaster General 1997-1998, he resigned after it was revealed he had leant Peter Mandleson £373,000 to buy a house (more information at They work for you)
Vincent McKee (Liberal Democrat) Born County Down. Educated at Coventry University and London Metropolitan University. Univesity lecturer. Runs a company providing independent support services for students. Contested Coventry North East 1992, Coventry South 2001, 2005.
Justin Wood (Green) Mark Nattrass (UKIP) Edward Sheppard (BNP) William Sidhu (Christian Movement for GB)Nikki Downes (Socialist Alternative)John Nobby Clarke (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97285
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.4%
Born outside UK: 10.6%
White: 88.8%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 70.2%
Hindu: 2%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 3.8%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 16.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.4%
Owner-Occupied: 74.7%
Social Housing: 13.7% (Council: 6.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.8%)
Privately Rented: 8.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.7%
Gary Ridley has the thankless task of fighting this one for the Conservatives
This is another of those seats that could swing a long way towards the Conservatives in the longer term.
Gary Ridley is a local councillor in the constituency, which has frequently returned more Tory than Labour council representatives despite a thumping parliamentary majority.
Despite topping the poll in the 2004 all-out election, Ridley is not popular in the ward. His extended leave from his council cabinet duties and a major recent storm over the deselection of a sitting Tory councillor in his ward may have damaged him locally.
Geoffrey Robinson’s narrow 1976 byelection win allowed Harold Wilson to resign the following week without any suggestion of crisis. He looks set to defend his seat comfortably for an eighth time.
This seat is perhaps surprisingly loyal to Labour given its social composition. Bablake for example is probably one of the best residential areas in the city. But the figures tell their own story.
This seat has provided a Tory lead in local election votes for quite a few years running now, but 2005 demonstrates how this is not likely to transfer across to a General election. The Tories are unfortunate that Bablake is not in the same constiuency as Wainbody and Earlsdon – could easily have been done and in that case there would eb a constituency in Coventry which the party could expect to win in an even to good year
With the Tories it depends how much killer instinct they have. Robinson is a former associate of Robert Maxwell and has been himself involved in a company bankruptcy. He is a confidante of the present PM, which is a bit surprising as Gordon Brown presents himself and his associates as men of unblemished integrity.
If the Tories put up someone like Neil Back( assuming Neil Back is a Tory which i’ve no idea ) they would win. But that would be a very different Tory Party to this one. In the old days there were people like Gerald Nabarro who knew how to run companies, now they put up museum attendants.
Geoffrey Robinson’s By-Election win in 1976 was probably made easier by the Tories choice of candidate,the Hon Jonathan Guinness.Despite all of the bad press Geoffrey Robinson seems to go down well with the electorate in this part of the world,winning without any fuss even in 1983.
I’m loathe to draw attention to the appalling snobbery of the phrase “now they put up museum attendants” when used to describe someone who has been a Director of the Coventry Transport Museum and who has put in several years service as a local counciller (and bear in mind, I don’t support Gary Ridley).
Instead, I’ll draw your attention to the nastiness embodied in using Gerald Nabarro as an example of the sort of candidate the Tories should be putting up. If you want to know exactly what i mean, look at the offensiveness of remarks quoted in the “Entry to Parliament” section of this web page : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Nabarro
“This is another of those seats that could swing a long way towards the Conservatives in the longer term.”
I think you may be proved right there Shaun. Some of the seats the Tories have lost in the past three decades such as Nottingham North and Hornsey and Wood Green now look out of our grasp – however I think the long-term potential is there in some seats we didn’t win even in the 1980s, such as Coventry North West, Carlisle and Wakefield.
According to the same wiki article Gerald Nabarro was a self made man from fairly humble beginnings educated at state schools and serving in the ranks of the army who then worked his way up from factory hand to factory manager then to owning his own business. I would have thought that is exactly the sort of candidate the party should be putting up.
Yes, Pete, but that’s because you want a right-wing Thatcherite party.
Regardless of whether or not someone is a “self made man”, I would have thought that anyone who makes offensive remarks about other races, or who persuades his secretary (who went on to become Christine Hamilton, btw) to lie on his behalf in a court case over a motoring offence, is unfit to be a member of parliament.
There appears to be a coterie of late-twenties/early-thirties Tory councillors in Coventry who all look quite similar and who all attended Coventry or Warwick University at roughly the same time before choosing to settle in the city. Gary Ridley is one, Kevin Foster (PPC for Coventry South) another.
They’re a bit like Coventry’s very own Notting Hill Set. (Earlsdon Set, perhaps.) I guess this contingent must have played no small part in building up the Tories in Coventry to the point where they could win control of the council.
I wouldn’t underestimate the efforts of people like councillors Tim Sawdon and John Blundell, who have been working solidly for the Tories for something over 35 years to my personal knowledge, since they were leading lights in the YCs in Earlsdon and Cheylesmore from 1970 – this, and the continuous Tory presence in a handful of wards which have served as a platform to build on. Indeed, looking at the councillors on the Coventry website, many of the Tories seem to be of maturer years and I don’t think there’s a disproportionate number of younger people serving as councillors.
As Warwick University has become established as a Russell Group university, there’s been a strengthing of the Tory undergraduate body, which has helped in giving the Tories a shot in the arm.
“I don’t think there’s a disproportionate number of younger people serving as councillors.”
No, but there is this particular group who appear all to be of the same generation and of a similar background. (But point taken about the work of the older members.)
Aggregate votes from the 2008 local elections;
C 9757 42.4%
Lab 7468 32.4%
BNP 2596 11.3%
LD 1448 6.3%
Oth 1746 7.6%
I dislike the Lib Dem personalised campaigns,
despite portraying this very sanctimonious “nice” attitude.
Very rarely have I felt that about a Labour politician, as
they usually have their heart in the right place.
Nevertheless, the smug, shambolic character of Geoffrey Robinson,
who clearly thinks he understands business, deserves
to be taken to task in the election for his own role in the current recession.
He who gave so much bad advice to his colleagues, and pressed hard for
the tax on pension funds in 1997/98>, aswell, I strongly suspect,
as the splitting of the Bank of England from the FSA, which has been shown to b
e a very bad regulator.
I confess I would enjoy seeing the removal of this particular politician.
(I’d go further, probably nearly always, rather than usually).
That post kind of goes against your desire (which I support) to see more people with senior business/industry experience in parliament, Joe.
Despite the faint whiff of sleaze that has hung over him, Geoffrey Robinson is one of the relatively few Labour MPs that I have any time for and is one of the very few Labour MPs with real world experience of being a captain of manufacturing industry (having been Chairman of Jaguar). He understands business better than most Labour MPs do and comes across relatively well on TV.
To the extent that Robinson was responsible for taxation of pension funds, blaming that for the subsequent collapse of the final salary pension system is pretty far fetched IMHO. Yes it was a small contributing factor, but much more significant causes were the collapse of the dotcom bubble, the long term effect of much lower inflation since the 1990s, the rising retiree to employee ratio, increased life expectancy and of course the latest stock market crash.
Robinson will be 71-72 by the next election so might have been expected to retire.
Those points you make are quite right – but it was still a significant factor in the poor payouts.
I’m pretty sure – in the summer of 1997 – they thought it would be a cost absorbed by the pension companies, not passed on.
I had rather forgotten about Jaguar I confess, but thought he ran another firm which collapsed [although often that isn't always a fair thing to hold against someone], but he doesn’t actually inspire much confidence IMO, the impression given that he’s from the rather scrappy end of business.
I think Digby Jones is a very good chap, but he tried to be a non political politician which not sure is the tradition in Britain.
It’s interesting that Robinson became an MP through a byelection in 1976.
Was there any special reason Labour managed to win that one when they had defeats at Walsall North and Birmingham Stechford soon after?
“I think Digby Jones is a very good chap, but he tried to be a non political politician which not sure is the tradition in Britain.”
Sadly there’s a list of captains of industry who were fast tracked into politics and failed – John Davies, Lord Young and Archie Norman all spring to mind – also Digby Jones as you mention.
I think there is resentment amongst MPs who have started at the bottom towards fast tracked big names from business and this combined with lack of a parliamentary base often makes such appointments unsuccessful. I think it is really a disadvantage for Britain that that is the case.
My prediction for this seat;
Labour 18500
Cons 15000
Lib Dem 6000
BNP 2500
Others 1500
I thought Lord Young did quite well. I havent really studied the case, but my recollection from the time was that he was a succesful minister.
I think Lord Young had a bit more of a track record of working with the PM before, so perhaps he wasn’t quite so seen as fast tracked in. But he was resented by Tebbit in the 1987 election, as Pete will of course have heard, for the reason above partly that he hadn’t come up through winning himself.
On Richard’s point, yes Labour and Geoffrey Robinson have undoubtedly done well at dire times – 1976 and 1983, and decisively.
I think the Tories might have led in 1982 but it came to nothing.
I think, basically, Thatcher and Tebbit were very close but she was slightly worried that he might be making a hash of the election campaign and didn’t know how to tell him.
Looking at the result, it seems it was over-blown, but I suppose with a catalogue of gaffes the majority could have come down somewhat. But I couldn’t quantify it in detail.
“On Richard’s point, yes Labour and Geoffrey Robinson have undoubtedly done well at dire times – 1976 and 1983, and decisively.”
Coventry was and still is a car-making city, and Robinson’s credibility as a car industry man must have helped him a great deal. He has been quite high profile on news programmes recently supporting the car industry bailout.
Also he was until recently the chairman of Coventry FC (he is still a director), which probably also helps his reputation locally.
All-in-all he is quite a strange mix of rich champagne socialist and locally-rooted industrialist.
It seems to have paid off for him – no denying it,
but actually those points make one suspect he has his fingers in too many pies, with a trail of devastation.
The Lib Dem candidate here is Dr Vincent McKee, who stood in Coventry South in 2001 and 2005, and in Coventry North East in 1992.
TUSC have selected Nikki Downes, a member of the NUT
Downes was the “Other” who got 615 votes in 2005 (for Socialist Alternative).
Lab Hold= 3,500 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 2900
Nobby Clarke is to stand as an independent, here.
BNP have selected Edward Sheppard
Lab maj 2,750
Justin Wood is standing here for the Green Party.
It will be a Political Earthquake of the Magnitude of Michael Portillo if Geoffery loses.He is a commanding figure in Coventry NW having being Chair of CCFC and saved Jaguar in the 70′s and has a lot of support across the political divide.I’m looking for 10-12% maj min.There are some solid Tory areas and the Con challenger is a hard working and enterprising local Coventry Kid but Geoffrey Robinson is highly respected in this area.
LAB HOLD
The LibDem PPC here Dr Vincent McKee has been suspended by the LibDems after allegedly defrauding students of thousands of pounds.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Liberal-Democrat-Parliamentary-Candidate-Suspended-For-Defrauding-Students-Of-Thousands-Of-Pounds/Article/201101215890360?lpos=UK_News_News_Your_Way_Region_0&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15890360_Liberal_Democrat_Parliamentary_Candidate_Suspended_For_Defrauding_Students_Of_Thousands_Of_Pounds
Doesn’t sound like a very nice man at all.
I quite like Geoffrey Robinson. That rare species in politics these days, a former captain of industry, on the Labour side.
Bablake ward in this seat, which has for donkeys years been a safe Conservative hold, was taken by Labour at this year’s council elections. Their candidate was a respected former local headmaster but even so this was quite an achievement for Labour, given that for example elsewhere in the city, the Conservatives managed to hold Cheylesmore and Earlsdon by relatively small majorities.
Thats interesting and seems to be repeated in Birmingham. Tories lost formerly safish Brandwood and Harborne and came within a whisker in Edgbaston, Northfield and Bournville.
…but then they won an 800 majority in Erdington and narrowly held Weoley which surely most people would have written off!
I wonder if the party has become complacent about holding some of their wards that looked safe on paper? I wonder if Labour may find it more difficult to win wards like Bablake and Harborne in future years as the Tory activists respond to the kick up the backside they got there this year?
Harborne had only been won by Labour once before, in the annus mirabilis of 1995. I don’t know how long it had been since Bablake had been won. A Tory hold in Earlsdon isn’t a surprise but Labour have won in Cheylesmore before & will want to take it next year if they can.
Bablake had been Conservative since 1998 and had otherwise only been lost in the three years of the mid 90s and in 1990. Cheylesmore was traditionally much more marginal and was won by Labour in every local election in the 1990s except for 1992 and many in the 1980s too (84, 86, 88). I think indeed the Conservative majority in Cheylesmore this year was bigger than in Earlsdon
What sort of demographics do Bablake, Earlsdon and Cheylesmore have?
Earlsdon is a classic old middle class area, Edwardian – quite close to the town centre. It has a high proportion of ABs, graduates – a fair share of public sector middle class, Guardianista types. Further out in Stivichall is more modern suburban territory. Cheylesmore is more inter-war semis. Fairly middle class in composotion but more C1. Bablake is fairly mixed. It includes some similar territory to Cheylesmore on the fringes of Coventry proper but also semi-rural areas beyond the old city boundary. Allesley and Keresley are former pit villages but there are also some attractive villages resembling neighbouring areas in Meriden
No interest in the heir to Blair standing here?
I wonder what the local party are thinking? – Could they do another Merthyr Tydfil? I am not sure the Labour support is strong enough for that (eg split the vote and the independent Labour to win) – however in the next election the Tories will probably lose a few thousand and Labour will gain from the Lib Dems so it might be possible.
Anyway, “captain of industry” Geoffrey Robinson was well and truly taken to the cleaners in an unauthorized biography by Tom Bower. Bower has done the same for Branson, Al Fayed, Tiny Rowland and Maxwell.
A very interesting book – worth a read if you like biographies.