South East Cornwall
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22390 (45.13%)
Labour: 3507 (7.07%)
Liberal Democrat: 19170 (38.64%)
UKIP: 3083 (6.21%)
Green: 826 (1.66%)
Others: 641 (1.29%)
Majority: 3220 (6.49%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 21616 (47.2%)
Conservative: 15573 (34%)
Labour: 5243 (11.4%)
Other: 3362 (7.3%)
Majority: 6043 (13.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18479 (34.6%)
Labour: 6069 (11.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 24986 (46.7%)
UKIP: 2693 (5%)
Other: 1228 (2.3%)
Majority: 6507 (12.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18381 (35.5%)
Labour: 6429 (12.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 23756 (45.9%)
UKIP: 1978 (3.8%)
Other: 1209 (2.3%)
Majority: 5375 (10.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20564 (35.8%)
Labour: 7358 (12.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 27044 (47.1%)
Other: 2466 (4.3%)
Majority: 6480 (11.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Sheryll Murray (Conservative) born Millbrook. Educated at Torpoint Comprehensive. Leader of the Conservative Group on Caradon District Council and former County Councillor for Rame. Has campaigned on fisheries as the wife of a local trawlerman, a spokesman for “Save Britain`s Fish” and as a member of the Fishermen`s Association Ltd.
Sheryll Murray (Conservative) born Millbrook. Educated at Torpoint Comprehensive. Leader of the Conservative Group on Caradon District Council and former County Councillor for Rame. Has campaigned on fisheries as the wife of a local trawlerman, a spokesman for “Save Britain`s Fish” and as a member of the Fishermen`s Association Ltd.
Michael Sparling (Labour)
Karen Gillard (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Plymouth University. Barrister and former Liberal Democrat head of candidates. Conservative councillor in Plymouth from 2000, she defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2001 before losing her seat in 2007. Contested Plymouth Sutton 2005.
Roger Creagh-Osborne (Green) Electronic engineer. Contested South West in 2009 European elections.
Stephanie McWilliam (UKIP) Educated at Truro Grammar School. Former radiographer, recently ran a private air travel company, currently a full time candidate.Roger Holmes (Mebyon Kernow) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84251
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.1%
Over 60: 25.1%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Christian: 75.4%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 17.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.5%
Owner-Occupied: 74%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.2%)
Privately Rented: 10.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.6%
Warwick Lightfoot, who unsuccessfully defended this seat for the Conservatives in 1997, is a councillor in Kensington & Chelsea for the Holland ward. He was mayor of K&C in 2005/6.
Sad news
Sheryll Murray’s husband died yesterday in a fishing accident out at sea.
My condolences to the family.
From the ‘this is Plymouth’ site:
Mr Murray is well-known in Looe as a trawlerman and owner of the boat Our Boy Andrew.
It is understood then when his boat was reported missing on Thursday night the entire fishing fleets of Looe and Polperro, as well as boats from Plymouth, set out to sea to search for him…
Just last night Sheryll Murray gave a speech on the dangers of closing coastguard stations in a debate in Westminster Hall.
“It is because of those people that fishermen’s wives such as myself sleep a little better at night than we otherwise would…
…The sea can be the most beautiful place in which anybody can spend their time, but it can change quickly-believe me, I know after living for 25 years in fear of seeing the sea change overnight or within hours.
One thing my experience has taught me is that we must have respect for the sea at all times… “
Dreadful news. RIP.
By-election today in Torpoint East.
I think that if Breed hadn’t retired here, he would have held on.
His majority would have been something in the region of 2-3,000 I suspect.
Likewise with Truro and Falmouth, where the Lib Dems basically lost because Matthew Taylor had gone.
Interestingly there, their vote share was only down notionally by 0.1%, so had Taylor stood he may well have increased his vote share.
Taylor like his predecessor David Penhaligon had a personal vote that was fairly resilient- He never faced any real concerted Tory challenges in either Truro or Truro and St Austell and in 1997 had a majority of well over 12,000.
Finally, in Camborne and Redruth where the Lib Dems only lost by a nailbiting 66 votes, the only reason why the margin of defeat was as marginal as it was was down to Goldsworthy’s incumbency- Had she been forced to stand down because of her expenses, any other Lib Dem candidate would have probably lost C&R to Eustace by a fair few thousand I would have thought.
Overall, I would say that the Lib Dems did disappointingly in Cornwall at the 2010 General Election- They suffered hefty swings against them in South East Cornwall and St Ives, which caused them to lose the former, and in North Cornwall the majority was reduced further by the Tories.
On the basis of the three marginal majorities that the remaining Cornwall Lib Dem MPs will be defending, I would say the possibility of a Lib Dem wipeout in Kernow in 2015 is very high indeed…
Prediction for 2015-
Murray (Tory)- 24, 567 (47.3%, +2.2%)
Lib Dem- 17, 782 (34.2%, -4.4%)
Labour- 5, 926 (11.4%, +4.3%)
Others- 3, 622 (6.9%, -2.3%)
Con hold.
Turnout- 51, 897.
Majority- 6, 785 (13.0%)
Swing- +3.3% From Lib Dem to Con.
Perhaps Cornwall is a place which eventually turns on the party which is seen as most London based, and by 2010, although this is not a Labour stronghold, it was enough for people to push the Liberals aside in order to get a change.
There are quite impressive increases in votes – 11% here, which would be on the high side even by 1979 standards.
Whether large swings in Cornwall mean longer term conversions to any party or another is not yet certain though.
I don’t agree that Breed had such a personal vote. He won in 1997 in awful circumstances for the Conservatives, and held on when they didn’t improve much. I think the swing of the pendulum would have done for him had he stood. Some MPs such as Steve Pound have very large personal votes but I don’t think Breed’s was as large as all that.
But Barnaby I didn’t say Breed had a personal vote at all. I just think that the Lib Dems might have held here had he not retired- It doesn’t mean exactly the same thing.
And you say he won in 1997 in ‘awful circumstances’ yet he convincingly held the seat in 2001 and 2005- I still feel that the swing to the Tories would have been a good deal lower had Breed not retired- His majority was comfortable enough.
I think in 2015 that the Tories will gain St Austell and Newquay, North Cornwall and St Ives and hold South East Cornwall, Truro and Falmouth and Camborne and Redruth with increased majorities.
Barnaby may eb right that Colin Breed didn’t have much of a personal vote, but I think it is true that the LD candidate here in 2010 was particularly ill-suited to this seat so I think there would have been a substantial mdifference in the result if Breed had stood again, but I think he would still have lost.
I think The Results may be too optimistic on behalf of the Tories for 2015. I’m not sure the Conservatives will gain any of the three Cornish LD seats, though Newquay & St Austell is possible as there is the potential for some tactical unwind to Labour there. I strongly doubt that either Cornwall North or St Ives will be lost
Results
I think that’s a very eccentric prediction.
The Tories don’t have a hope of winning St Ives, and Cornwall North is an extremely long shot. Newquay will at Pete says most likely stay LD.
Insofar as you can project anything in such an electorally idiosyncratic county as Cornwall, we can reasonably surmise that whilst the Lib Dems are likely to lose votes to Labour, the Tories are likely to lose votes as well, certainly to UKIP. There is not likely to be enough of a swing for the Tories to make big gains from the Lib Dems.
Regarding Cornwall South East – and if you look back on this thread I said this years before the election – the Lib Dems chose just about the worst possible candidate. This is a very small-c conservative seat which despises Plymouth. So who do the Lib Dems choose….a lesbian from Plymouth.
The majorities are so close in both the Truro and Redruth seats that the Lib Dems might have an outside chance of winning at least one of them back.
What planet are you on today, not a chance of winning St Ives???? Tories are odds on favourites there the majority is only 3-4% and there must be a significant tactical element to the ld vote.
“Tories are odds on favourites there”
With which bookmaker? Can you provide a link?
Andrew George is a latter day David Penhaligon who will keep a lot of tactical votes due to his having been a vocal thorn in the coalition’s side. The larger part of his vote is in any case a core Lib Dem vote. And like many Tories you’re forgetting that UKIP could well be polling 10% plus in these kind of seats.
There was a big swing to the Tories in St Ives in 2010 & it is within the Tories’ reach. It could be touch & go & I don’t agree that the Tories have no chance. The statement that SE Cornwall “despises Plymouth” seems odd to me – parts of the seat, especially Saltash, have very close links with that city, and Saltash can almost be regarded as an outer suburb of it, though as one of the LDs’ strongest areas in the seat admittedly it has little or nothing in common politically with it.
St Ives could be gained by the Tories on a swing of 1.9%,
although it is true that if the Tories are doing poorly aswell as the Lib Dems, the net swings between those two parties would be low
and maybe in places slightly towards the LDs net.
But even then, the Labour vote has traditionally been quite high there so some recovery on that front could let the Tories through.
Sorry Hemmelig that was an opinion rather than fact – the odds bit. Id have put it about
Con 7/10
LD 5/4
The Tories could actually win all the seats in Cornwall,
even with UKIP in the frame.
The LD majorities in the remaining 3 are low.
Wasn’t this also a case of a remarkably good, well respected and locally rooted Conservative candidate?
JJB I have posted predictions of Tory gains on the North Cornwall and Truro and Falmouth threads. Soon I will post predictions for St Ives and Camborne and Redruth. Think I have also posted a prediction for St Austell and Newquay.
Yes you have. Cornish seats are quite difficult to predict & I admire your boldness – nevertheless, I’d continue to say it’s too early for such predictions to be likely to be all that accurate. Even when the election campaign comes, I wouldn’t do so with all that much confidence in this particular county.
Barnaby is quite correct, the Cornish seats are very idiosyncratic with local factors extremely important. The huge swing in St.Ives last time, which almost brought a sensational Conservative gain, is a good example.
And to be honest it is far from clear that we will have much better view of the likely outcomes even a couple of years from now.
I think Truro could be one of the best chances of a LD gain at the next election. They held it for 36 years until 2010 and it may only have been the combination of boundary changes and the retirement of a fairly popular MP that caused them to narrowly lose it.
Montgomeryshire must be up there too. Cant see many obvious chances outside those two.
Oxford West is another possibility as has been discussed on that thread recently.
I don’t think they’ll gain any of those seats but the Tories should not assume so.
Full summary of my predictions for Cornwall seats in 2015-
1. South East Cornwall
Con hold. Majority- 6, 785 (13.0%) Swing- +3.3% From Lib Dem to Con.
2. Truro and Falmouth
Con hold. Majority- 4, 833 (9.8%) Swing- +4.5% From Lib Dem to Con.
3. St Ives
Con gain. Majority- 2, 710 (5.9%) Swing- +4.8% From Lib Dem to Con.
4. Camborne and Redruth
Con hold. Majority- 3, 934 (9.1%) Swing- +4.5% From Lib Dem to Con.
5. North Cornwall
Con gain. Majority- 2, 603 (5.6%) Swing- +6.0% From Lib Dem to Con.
6. St Austell and Newquay
Con gain. Majority- 3, 574 (7.6%) Swing- +5.15% From Lib Dem to Con.
Interesting predictions. Personally I disagree with the majority of them.
I think the LD->Con swings, particularly in the LD held areas are too high. Id have thought around 2-3% in the LD held seats, and 3-4 in the tory seats.
Conservative gains from LD partly rely on a significant increase in the Labour vote. I think this is less likely in Cornwall than almost anywhere, especially in North Cornwall which is a consistently appalling seat for Labour & which will be a tough nut to crack for the Tories. The main exception will be Camborne & Redruth. There are so many voters who are LD identifiers in Cornwall, rather than Labour sympathizers who vote tactically or generic Tory-dislikers. So I think Joe R is probably right, at this admittedly early stage.