I agree with Tim13 here. It’s very difficult to judge whether an LD seat is vulnerable during a new MPs’ first term - unless there are key tactical mistakes being made on the ground, or the new MP has earned a poor or divisive reputation. I’d err on Rogerson’s side in any prediction unless local figures show the sort of marked Conservative recovery that can be seen in some areas of Devon.

I don’t, I stress, agree with Tim’s last point; it is very difficult to see any strong reason why the Conservatives should decline in Opposition. I’m more inclined to see a steady consolidation, with Labour perhaps gaining a few points as the campaign approaches (all other things being equal, naturally).

“If you check the actual election results since the seats creation in 1918 you’ll find that far from being a marginal, the seat has been safe Liberal/LibDem for a good proportion of that time. As indeed it is now.”

It surely doesnt make sense to describe a seat as safe which is capable of being won by another party. As the Conservatives won the seat in 1924 it cannot have been a safe seat then in the 1920s. From what I can remember the Liberal margin was always quite low in those elections in the 20s and 30s when they did win it. It was won byt the Conservatives at every election between 1950 and 1964 and by the Liberals only narrowly in 1966 and 1970. The only time it may have looked safe was in 1974 and in 1997/2001. However it clearly wasnt safe in 1974 as it was lost in 1979. Surely a definition of a safe seat is that it cannot be lost?

Tangent, I think the Lib Dem and Conservative poll ratings have been linked over the last 12 - 18 months (closer than the link with Labour of either). As I see it, Lib Dems have turned around a very difficult polling situation from last year, hence my prediction, the beginnings of which you are seeing both in the opinion polls, and, for several weeks now, a trend in the ballot box.

I have those figures in front of me now Galloglass. The larget Liberal majority in the 1918-45 perios was 2853 (13%) which was in 1923 - not a year when the Liberals were on tehir knees nationally and certainly not regionally. The seat may have looked safe then but it was lost in 1924 so by definition it wasnt safe. In every subsequent election the % majority was less than 10% - in the four elections of the 1930s it was below 5% (2 byelections in 1932 and 1939 as well as 31 and 35).
It cant be proven whether the Liberals would have held the seat in 1950 without the set of circumstances you describe. Other 1945 LIberal seats such as Dorset North and Eye were lost in 1950. We do know anyway that the LIberals lost in 5 consectuive elections beween 1950 and 1964 and won very narrowly in 1966 and 1970 (less than 1000 in the latter year). It may have looked safe in 1974 but a large majority in one election does not necessarily imply safety and the fact it was lost in 1979 again proves that it wasnt safe. Similarly the large majorities in 1997 and 2001 do not guarantee safety, as the large swing in 2005 testifies. You could say Harrow East, for example, was a safe Conservative seat in 1992, but it obviously wasnt because the Conservatives lost it - it was a marginal seat which temporarily had a large majority and it isnt a safe Labour seat now either just because it had a big majority in 1997. I repeat that a definition of a safe seat must be that it is unwinnable by other parties and that has never been the case with this seat.
For what its worth I do believe that incumbency together with very favourable boundary changes make it overwhelmingly likely that the LDs will hold this seat at the next election and quite possibly for many elections to come. But I cant accept that the seat could have been defined as safe for any of its history since 1918, not by any normally accepted definition of the term.

Pete, a favourite of Ashdown’s in particular, but used by all LibDem leaders since also - “No glass ceilings, no no go areas for the Liberal Democrats”. This means that there are NO seats which are under favourable circumstances, winnable by the party. As a downside, it means that all are (more or less) vulnerable. But there are many seats, Tory and Labour-held, which are virtually safe from the depredations of the other.

Sian Flynn is the Consevative PPC for this seat. Do you think its going to make a difference how the females vote in the constituency. Are there any statistics that indicate one way or the other?

Wilfred
I think both females AND males can be influenced by this. But the vast majority of people tell you that they are looking for “the best person for the job” irrespective of gender (or other factors).

I think the Lib Dem and Conservative poll ratings have been linked over the last 12 - 18 months (closer than the link with Labour of either).

Certainly; but this has been a fairly minor factor compared to the fundamental dynamic between Labour and the Conservatives. If the LDs are continually polling below 16%, or above 21%, then this will have a significant impact on Conservative figures one way or the other: but I’d see polling figures in the 18-21% range as the most likely. This implies a Conservative lead, although not the comfortable 40%-plus figures they would be seeing if the LDs perform really badly and Labour remains in the doldrums.

In any case, the national opinion polls are likely to be a poor guide to the events in this seat, unless there’s decisive evidence of a strong national LD-Con swing (or the converse).

Agree, Tangent, but I can still hope for, and work to achieve, higher than 21%!

Wilfred, we live in a different world, but when the last (and only?)female Tory candidate stood for North Cornwall, Trixie Gardner, she was hammered. I think there will be less negative influence this time, and may even be a positive one. When you look around Cornwall, at least 4 of the Tory PPCs are women. Well done to the Tories, I say (and you don’t hear me say that much!!!)

Yes, votedave. Thatcher used to go to Constantine Bay, next door to Harlyn. Funnily enough, my granny, and subsequently my parents, lived at Trevone Bay, the other side of Harlyn. So I know the area very well indeed!

I hope Cameron shows more understanding of the area - Thatcher was once heard to remark that it was a wonderful place, and clearly had no problems (apart from congestion on the old bridge through Wadebridge - that was before the bypass was built). Conveniently ignoring the widespread rural poverty and low level of services across rural East Cornwall.