Copeland
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15866 (37.08%)
Labour: 19699 (46.04%)
Liberal Democrat: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.44%)
UKIP: 994 (2.32%)
Green: 389 (0.91%)
Majority: 3833 (8.96%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19218 (49.1%)
Conservative: 12390 (31.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5145 (13.2%)
Other: 2354 (6%)
Majority: 6828 (17.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10713 (31.7%)
Labour: 17033 (50.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3880 (11.5%)
UKIP: 735 (2.2%)
Other: 1396 (4.1%)
Majority: 6320 (18.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13027 (37.5%)
Labour: 17991 (51.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3732 (10.7%)
Majority: 4964 (14.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12081 (29.2%)
Labour: 24025 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3814 (9.2%)
Referendum: 1036 (2.5%)
Other: 389 (0.9%)
Majority: 11944 (28.9%)
Boundary changes: Copeland ceases to be coterminus with Copeland council, taking in the wards of Crummock, Dalton, Derwent Valley and Keswick from Allerdale.
Profile: Seat on the remote west coast of Cumbria. The constituency is a mixture of hill farming countryside, impressive Lake District wilderness, including Scafell Pike itself, and somewhat economically depressed former mining or iron working towns. The main town is Whitehaven. Historically a coal mining town and commericial port, mining ceased in the 1980s. The Marchon chemical factory also closed in 2005 leaving the nearby Sellafield nuclear power complex as the most important source of local employment. Keswick, to the north of the constituency, was the first palce to produce graphite pencils and remains the base of Derwent, the manufacturers of fine art pencils. Other towns include Cleator Moor, Egremont and Millom.
Copeland is the first area to fully switchover to digital television. Analogue television signals in the area will cease between October and November 2007.
Current MP: Jamie Reed(Labour) born 1973, Whitehaven. Educated at Whitehaven school and Manchester University. Former press officer for Sellafield and Copeland councillor. First elected as MP for Copeland in 2005. PPS to Tony McNulty. (more information at They work for you)
Chris Whiteside (Conservative) . Educated at St Albans school and the University of Bristol. Economist, working for BT Global Services. Currently a St Albans councillor, standing down in May 2007 having re-located to Cumbria. Contested Copeland in 2005.Jamie Reed(Labour) born 1973, Whitehaven. Educated at Whitehaven school and Manchester University. Former press officer for Sellafield and Copeland councillor. First elected as MP for Copeland in 2005. PPS to Tony McNulty. (more information at They work for you)
Frank Hollowell (Liberal Democrat) born 1959, London. Educated at Spencefield Secondary. Mental health nurse.
Jill Perry (Green) Jam maker and former teacher.
Ted Caley-Knowles (UKIP) 
Clive Jefferson (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 79416
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 2%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 85.4%
Full time students: 1.5%
Graduates 16-74: 16.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68.2%
Social Housing: 21.8% (Council: 12.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.7%
‘Tatton is probably safer if you count that as being in the north.’
Richmond is the Tories safest seat in the North and arguably in the whole country
”Richmond is the Tories safest seat in the North and arguably in the whole country”
Yes, probably safer on paper than anywhere in the South for the Tories. What makes it as safe as it is is undoubtedly the rapport William Hague has with the people there- Everything about him fits- Yorkshire accent, his views, his image and his friendly manner which appeals to the rural residents of such a desolate constituency.
Oh I agree, just the previous poster specifically excluded N Yorkshire.
‘What makes it as safe as it is is undoubtedly the rapport William Hague has with the people there- Everything about him fits- Yorkshire accent, his views, his image and his friendly manner which appeals to the rural residents of such a desolate constituency.’
I agree
as awful as I think Hague was as leader for the Tories, he’s undoubtedly viewed as a first class constituency MP and his high regard is shown that in 2001 where the Tories were sinking even further into the mire almost everywhere else, his seat produced the best Tory result of the night
But rural North Yorkshire has always rivaled places like Surrey and Buckinghamshire in its degree of Tory support and I think any candidate with the blue rosette would win here
That’s what annoys me about this BBC tendancy to use ‘the north’ as some sort of shorthand. The truth is that the north is many and varied and that there are areas of absolutely monolithic Tory support up there.
When they talk about the Tories problem in ‘the north’ they are really talking about the problem in the urban north.
And when you realise that actually the Tories are still far and away more popular than the Lib Dems in vast swaythes of the urban north, you realise that what they are *actually* talking about is the Tories problem in 4 or 5 big cities such as Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle and the like.
Cities which in actual terms are entirely irrelevant to the Tory election prospects!
The Tories have done very well in certain seats in Northern England- Hexham, Macclesfield, Congleton, Altrincham and Sale West, Ribble Valley, Richmond, Ryedale, Vale of York, Beverley and Holderness, East Yorkshire, Penrith and The Border and Haltemprice and Howden are just a few examples of places that the Tories were able to survive, in most instances comfortably in 1997, and how they retain support in the more rural areas of the North East, Yorkshire and North West.
I think it was Tim who asked whether N Cumberland had similar boundaries to Penrith & the Border. The answer is no, not really – it excluded Penrith and much of the south of the county which is in the latter seat. There wasn’t a seat called S Cumberland but it was called Penrith & Cockermouth which was pretty safe Tory even in 1945. The reason that Labour managed to hold Workington in their (our) disaster year of 1931 is that Cockermouth & areas which were subsequently included such as Keswick weren’t included in those days; the seat was more tightly drawn around Workington & Maryport, which are still very heavily Labour areas and in those days had a large mining population too.
Labour will no doubt be relieved though that they retain a clear majority of MPs in Cumbria. Them holding Barrow and Furness, Copeland and Workington when it was widely thought the Tories would perhaps come very close to winning all three was no doubt something of a nice surprise for them, and disappointing for the Conservatives.
I should have added that I have always felt, and have said here before, that I very rarely have a problem with the way the Conservatives fight elections on the ground. It is very rare indeed for Tories to make insinuations and spread nasty rumours about their opponents, even rarer still for them to lie about the correct tactical situation in a constituency. The former, indeed, sets them apart from their cousins in the US Republican Party (though, Heaven knows, the Democrats can’t honestly claim to have particularly clean hands either). Sadly, neither of these, in my admittedly biased opinion, is true of the Lib Dems who seem to feel that, as a minor party, anything goes in an election campaign, and the feeling that the Tories can almost always be relied on at least to fight on the merits of their candidate, and to insult only the POLICIES rather than the personalities of their opponents, makes them easier to get along with on a personal basis from my point of view. I took a very dim view of one particular Labour candidate, Phil Woolas, who fought in a totally underhand fashion, and therefore don’t regret his departure at all.
I suspect Phil Woolas was provoked after problems with the Lib Dems in his area.
There are better ways of dealing with it though.
The only time I have ever stood as a candidate in a local election (in 2002), one of my Lib Dem opponents could walk perfectly well, yet chose to go round canvassing in a wheelchair, presumably a bizarre attempt to elicit a sympathy vote.
It didn’t work as they came a poor 3rd.
They put off me voting LD tactically in a ward that split something like 45 40 10(Con with the misleading literature and im very much from the classical liberal wing of the tory party.
Was that as a Tory Hemmelig (if you dont mind)?
At the last local elections in Copeland, the Liberal Democrats’ best result was in Ennerdale where Mike Minogue got 58 votes (13.0%). The only other candidate for the party stood in Ennerdale and was Frank Hollowell who got 284 votes (10.5%). Perhaps not all that surprisingly in an area that is very weak for the Liberal Democrats, the party’s candidate for the Copeland constituency has been Frank Hollowell at the 2005 and 2010 General Elections.
That is to say, not all that surprising when the party does not have that many activists in Copeland.
“Was that as a Tory Hemmelig (if you dont mind)?”
Yes
As discussed here before May 2010, Copeland was a seat the Tories had some hopes of despite it remaining Labour through the 1979-97 period.
But I think it must have a stickier Labour vote than in some of the caricatures of WWC seats.
Yes, there is a rural element,
and a part of the electorate that is prepared to vote either Conservative or Labour
but there must be a fairly high core Labour vote
that the Tories can’t overhaul.
In that ways, it is similar to a number of Labour marginals in the West Midlands, but not in much other sense.
I wonder if the Labour loyalty among the Cumbria wwc is connected with its remote location?
Not just within Britain generally but out on the coast away from the motorways.
Its the ease of access and the new housing developments which feature in the steady breakdown of the Labour core vote in the Yorkshire and midlands mining areas.
I was thinking of that Richard. It’s a little ironic at first sight but it makes sense.
Cunningham was of course on the right of the party and a staunch supporter of nuclear power which probably kept it Labour in the 1980s.
“That’s what annoys me about this BBC tendancy to use ‘the north’ as some sort of shorthand … you realise that what they are *actually* talking about is the Tories problem in 4 or 5 big cities such as Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle and the like.”
A common mistake is to assume that ‘the north’ consists of the big cities with football teams politicians pretend to support and pretty national park areas where tv dramas about doctors are set.
In reality most of the north is neither area but is the medium sized town, exurban/industrial sprawl between the two. And politically this is the area which counts as this is where the marginal constituencies are.
It was a mistake the Conservative leadership made before the last election even though their chief strategist purports to be a northern MP (I wonder how often George Osborne visits Tatton?).
And a mistake which seems widespread among people at ConHome as well.
I don’t think the Tories would have won this seat in 2010 even if they had done a few points better (which they should have done).
Had trouble even getting control of the council in mid-term aswell – a sign that Labour is doing better than some commentators thought.
The seat is ex-mining and Rugby League country. It’s not surprising that Whitehaven & most of the nearby towns & villages are very slow to drift away from Labour. The seat is more marginal than Workington because it does contain more Tory elements, even on the coast (Bootle for example is very solid Tory), whereas Workington has Maryport which is every bit as solid Labour as Workington itself & its Tory areas are more limited.
Startling how well the tories did in 2001 here
It was largely down to the controversy surrounding Foot and Mouth, but also Jack Cunningham’s low profile in the seat,
Jack Cunningham like myself is from South Northumberland (within a mile or so) and worked in the same department of the same university (Durham Chemistry) in a similar area. The similarity doesnt extend to politics however!.
He was firmly on the right of the Labour Party was Cunningham. That and his pro-nuclear stance were probably what allowed him to hold this in the 80′s.
I assume that the new ‘Copeland & Windermere’ constituency will be a bell weather seat?
If the Tories hold it Cameron will remain PM and if Labour ‘gain’ it Miliband will be PM.
What is more ironic? Whitehaven having a Tory MP or Windermere having a Labour MP?
I thought Windermere was one of the LD strongholds in W & L
In a Lib Dem / Conservative contest maybe…but in a tight Conservative/ Labour contest I can’t see Windermere voting Labour.
Possible result in 2015-
Reed (Labour)- 23, 334 (55.3%, +9.3%)
Tory- 14, 224 (33.7%, -3.4%)
Lib Dem- 2, 336 (5.5%, -4.7%)
Others- 2, 298 (5.4%, -0.2%)
Turnout- 42, 192.
Majority- 9, 110 (21.5%)
Swing- +6.35% From Con to Lab.
possible result?
And another possible result could be that the Tories get the 23,000 votes and Labour end up on 14,000.
Why on earth are we wasting our time with detailed predictions at this stage of the parliament?
We might be able to make a broad prediction as to which party will win, but we can’t hope to achieve anything by coming up with fantasy figures.
”possible result?
And another possible result could be that the Tories get the 23,000 votes and Labour end up on 14,000.”
I think not. If you couldn’t win this in 1983 and 1987 or in 2010 then your party may never win it. The prediction is based if anything on Reed’s popularity which should if anything see him safely through with an increased majority in 2015. The Tory vote won’t even go down by that much Shaun because they lost considerable votes in 2005
“And another possible result could be that the Tories get the 23,000 votes and Labour end up on 14,000.”
Before anybody gffaws too much-I know that some like to be over pdantic-I wasn’t seriously suggesting that that would happen.
I see I was too late. Oh well.
The general point still stands. You can’t come up with an meaningful detailed predictions at this stage of the parliament.
Maybe not Shaun but It’s still fun to have a crack you know
As much as I loathe to agree with him Shaun’s right – with three years to go, so much can happen between now and the next election, making concise predictions an impossibility
Besides, it’s not beyond the rhelms of possibility that Shaun’s tongue-in-cheek prediction of a Tory gain does come off.
If we are to take anything from the Tory conference and Cameron’s dramatic shift to the Right, it could be that the Tories have given up pretending to be liberal and winning the election on the centre ground by attracting Labour and Lib Dem voters, and have refocussed on regaining those more right wing voters who have defected to the BNP, UKIP, English Democrats etc
If they stick to this strategy, their belief is that it will bring more working class seats like this into play
I’m not so sure that will happen – I certainly hope it doesn’t – but this is what the likes of Shaun Bennett and other hardline Tories have long been arguing – and it looks like Cameron is putting their money where their mouth is
In a seat like this though local matters will inevitably play a big part- Knowing how volatile Cumbria can be at election time, you just never know how the likes of Copeland, Workington, Barrow and Furness Penrith and The Border etc. etc. will go. But if Reed’s standing in the constituency here is anything to go by, he should really hold on.
‘But if Reed’s standing in the constituency here is anything to go by, he should really hold on.’
Of course he should – but given the election is three years away and the Tories have dramatically changed their strategy, making predictions now about what might happen then seems a thankless task
But how can the Tories expect to win a seat they’ve never won before like this?
Demographic change making the WWC solid labour area in the west of the seat drift slowly to the tories?
Seems more like another Corby type seat to me – a polarised mix of solid Labour and solid Conservative areas, with few Lab-Con swing voters and lower than average swings at general elections.
I have no local knowledge of the area however so I might be wrong.
I agree with Hemellig, this was one of the few areas where Labour didn’t do too badly in 2009.
I think Labour and the tories will be 3% lower and higher respectively than what the results predicts.
The Lab -> Tory swing has actually been slightly above the national average since 1997.
Perhaps we are seeing a low swing seat simulataneous with a slow drift to the tories. I also dont know the seat well and this is very hopeful.
“I’m not so sure that will happen – I certainly hope it doesn’t – but this is what the likes of Shaun Bennett and other hardline Tories have long been arguing – and it looks like Cameron is putting their money where their mouth is”
I’m not sure I trust Cameron to deliver on his rhetoric anyway, Tim, so I wouldn’t get too worked up about it just yet. Personally, it will take an awful lot of effort on Cameron’s part to convince me that he means what he now says.
But if he does, and if he delivers, I would expect to see Tory polling fortunes begin to reverse just as they have every time he has been dragged kicking and screaming to the right!
For me, the major story at the moment is not Cameron’s latest efforts to rebrand himself, but his government’s latest major strategic mistake-that of conceding votes for 16 year olds in the Scottish referendum. Already the left are starting to talk about extending the franchise in any future EU referendum and for future general elections. And some have ven moved on to start talkiing about votes for 14 year olds!
As I have agued many many times before, it is with major strategic bungling such as this that we see the REAL David Cameron, not in some well prepared speech at party conference.
Just for a moment, Cameron looked as though he might roll back from the judgement of history which is already awaiting him. Perhaps progress is beginning to be made? But the Scotland decision would imply not.
That’s possible….but an alternative explanation might be that the Labour core vote became progressively more disenchanted from 1997 onwards and increasingly stayed at home. In 2015 the Labour core vote will be motivated again and it will give them comparatively good results in seats like this one.
Was replying to Joe
I can’t get very excited about votes for 16 year olds.
If it were ever applied in a general election scenario, most wouldn’t vote, and all but the politically-aware minority would vote the same way as their parents.
Just like the under-25 age group as a whole, their impact on election results will be minimal.
Obviously in a make-or-break independence referendum we might expect turnout amongst younger people to be much higher than in a normal election, but I’m sceptical that this will in the end improve the chances of a yes vote. The majority of teenagers who are not very political will take advice from their parents and families and many will vote no.
‘For me, the major story at the moment is not Cameron’s latest efforts to rebrand himself, but his government’s latest major strategic mistake-that of conceding votes for 16 year olds in the Scottish referendum. Already the left are starting to talk about extending the franchise in any future EU referendum and for future general elections. And some have ven moved on to start talkiing about votes for 14 year olds!’
I disagree with extending the franchise to those under 18 under any basis – and I thought that was Cameron’s position too
I don’t think it will make a massive difference to the result of the vote though – largely for the reasons Hemelig cites
As a huge supporter of the Union, I’m with Cameron on this