Copeland
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19218 (49.1%)
Conservative: 12390 (31.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5145 (13.2%)
Other: 2354 (6%)
Majority: 6828 (17.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10713 (31.7%)
Labour: 17033 (50.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3880 (11.5%)
UKIP: 735 (2.2%)
Other: 1396 (4.1%)
Majority: 6320 (18.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13027 (37.5%)
Labour: 17991 (51.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3732 (10.7%)
Majority: 4964 (14.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12081 (29.2%)
Labour: 24025 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3814 (9.2%)
Referendum: 1036 (2.5%)
Other: 389 (0.9%)
Majority: 11944 (28.9%)
Boundary changes: Copeland ceases to be coterminus with Copeland council, taking in the wards of Crummock, Dalton, Derwent Valley and Keswick from Allerdale.
Profile: Seat on the remote west coast of Cumbria. The constituency is a mixture of hill farming countryside, impressive Lake District wilderness, including Scafell Pike itself, and somewhat economically depressed former mining or iron working towns. The main town is Whitehaven. Historically a coal mining town and commericial port, mining ceased in the 1980s. The Marchon chemical factory also closed in 2005 leaving the nearby Sellafield nuclear power complex as the most important source of local employment. Keswick, to the north of the constituency, was the first palce to produce graphite pencils and remains the base of Derwent, the manufacturers of fine art pencils. Other towns include Cleator Moor, Egremont and Millom.
Copeland is the first area to fully switchover to digital television. Analogue television signals in the area will cease between October and November 2007.
Outgoing MP: Jamie Reed(Labour) born 1973, Whitehaven. Educated at Whitehaven school and Manchester University. Former press officer for Sellafield and Copeland councillor. First elected as MP for Copeland in 2005. PPS to Tony McNulty. (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Chris Whiteside (Conservative) . Educated at St Albans school and the University of Bristol. Economist, working for BT Global Services. Currently a St Albans councillor, standing down in May 2007 having re-located to Cumbria. Contested Copeland in 2005.Jamie Reed(Labour) born 1973, Whitehaven. Educated at Whitehaven school and Manchester University. Former press officer for Sellafield and Copeland councillor. First elected as MP for Copeland in 2005. PPS to Tony McNulty. (more information at They work for you)
Frank Hollowell (Liberal Democrat) born 1959, London. Educated at Spencefield Secondary. Mental health nurse.
Jill Perry (Green) Jam maker and former teacher.
Ted Caley-Knowles (UKIP) 
Clive Jefferson (BNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 79416
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 2%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 85.4%
Full time students: 1.5%
Graduates 16-74: 16.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68.2%
Social Housing: 21.8% (Council: 12.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.7%
Yes, some marginals have a lot of typical middle ground voters, others are extremely polarised. This is one of the latter, although there are middle-ground areas like Keswick & Millom at opposite ends ot the new constituency.
Yes that’s right and some seats which look safe on paper may not be because of the size of the middle-ground or swing voters – I would suggest the Southampton seats as an example. The old Kensington seat pre-1997 was the best example of the other kind of marginal being extremely polarised between a wealthy and solidly Tory south and a relatively impoverished and solidly Labour north. There were not many swing voters there and as such it didn’t swing very much (though Labour would certainly have won that seat in 1997)