Colne Valley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20440 (36.96%)
Labour: 14589 (26.38%)
Liberal Democrat: 15603 (28.22%)
BNP: 1893 (3.42%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
Green: 867 (1.57%)
TUSC: 741 (1.34%)
Majority: 4837 (8.74%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18165 (35.7%)
Conservative: 16630 (32.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 12382 (24.4%)
Other: 3671 (7.2%)
Majority: 1535 (3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16035 (32.8%)
Labour: 17536 (35.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 11822 (24.2%)
BNP: 1430 (2.9%)
Green: 1295 (2.6%)
Other: 802 (1.6%)
Majority: 1501 (3.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14328 (30.5%)
Labour: 18967 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 11694 (24.9%)
UKIP: 917 (2%)
Green: 1081 (2.3%)
Majority: 4639 (9.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18445 (32.7%)
Labour: 23285 (41.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12755 (22.6%)
Other: 1926 (3.4%)
Majority: 2530 (4.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jason McCartney (Conservative) former RAF Officer and ITV Yorkshire news & sport presenter.
Jason McCartney (Conservative) former RAF Officer and ITV Yorkshire news & sport presenter. 
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) Director of the International Health Impact Assessment Consortium at the University of Liverpool.
Nicola Turner (Liberal Democrat) Managing director of an engineering company. Kirklees councillor.
Chas Ball (Green) Transport Consultant
Melanie Roberts (UKIP) Barry Fowler (BNP) 
Jackie Grunsell (TUSC) GP. Huddersfield councillor for Save Huddersfield NHS. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 for No2EU.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100171
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 91.6%
Black: 1.1%
Asian: 5.8%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 69.3%
Muslim: 4.7%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 21.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.6%
Owner-Occupied: 77.5%
Social Housing: 10.8% (Council: 9.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.6%)
Privately Rented: 8.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 22%
SMEECARLTON – The issue is that both roles are very demanding and on behalf of us the residents of the Valley. The likelihood is that Nicola would have to step down from the councillor role – however this would cause a local election which would cost over £25,000 (this is a full time nurse for a year) and the only reason we would have to pay for this is because Nicola was hedging her bets! I have to say that you are perfectly correct in mentioning Debbie’s role in Rochdale, but I am sure she will be home very soon as I do not know anyone who is saying they are voting Labour.
Debbie is not a councillor in Rochdale and never was. The information about candidates at the top of this are wrong.
Now here is a bit of a joke. A trio of local lads crept into the Turner’s paddock at 10.30 last night and stole their Lib /Dem posters – complete with the stakes. (Trespass? Theft? Drunken prank?)
Mamacas says ‘posters don’t win elections’ but it looks like some people must think posters have some effect or they would not sink to petty crime over them.
Such skulduggery! This election is turning out to be quite fun!
The news is that Cameron is canvassing all night as well as all day but I don’t think it would have been him! Maybe some of his minions?
Cameron says going all night is to demonstrate his physical stamina though his ultra hyped up performance suggests desperation. I’d hate to be him when his adrenalin runs out.
What a day it has been.
I have been sat in front of the TV for the past 12 hours and listenend to the political interviewers asking the same questions as they have been doing for the past 4 weeks and the politicians giving the same boring answers.
Is there nobody in the whole of the political scene with a little innovation that will stir up that last little bit of interest and get me off the party fence?
Well you’ve got two realistic choices haven’t you? Tory, (Cameron version) Tory (Blair version) or Lib/Dem. They are all shouting “change” but only one offers a change in ATTITUDE. So get off your backside tomorrow and vote LIB/DEM !!
(OK. I know it looks like three but it really is two!)
But I still have not been given a good reason to vote for one specific party. I shall vote LibDem and hope for a hung parliament. That should keep everyone on their toes until a new election is called in the next 12 months. Or maybe protest vote for BNP…
Debbie is not, and never has been a Rochdale councellor. I have spent the past year working with her, and have met both Nicola and Jason on many occasions, I can safely say Debbie is a credit to the Labour party and if she is to win the seat to the Colne Valley too. I have never met anyone so dedicated.
May I also point out, many of you have noted Debbie has been “shipped” in from Lancashire, Debbie livED in New Hey, Jason livES in Pudsey, Debbie is infact far more local than Jason – the man who couldnt be bothered to turn up to many of his hustings on time.
If you cannot make up your mind about the big picture for goodness sake go for the local lass! At least you will be represented and not forgotten.
But if you fancy a negative party full of hate and looking for fighting please stay home!
Don’t worry Scapgoathillbilly, I did the right thing. Now we wait to see if she gets elected.
Well the overwhelming majority to Jason proves my points, Debbie can now go home to Lancashire and Nicola can carry on running the business and stay local.
This is still a very interesting constituency. In the local elections the Lib Dems came out top with nearly 17000 votes and they won 3 of the six wards ( also I Lab, I Con , and 1 Ind).
The Tories got nearly 4000 votes less than in the General and Labour about 2000 less. So it is not a natural Tory seat.
It goes to show that while the Lib Dems are still strong in local government, they aren’t really competive these days in parliamentary terms. The flip side of what Dr DJ says is that while Debbie polled around 2600 above her local candidates and Jason over 4000 votes above his, Nicola actually polled over 1200 less votes than hers.
She was a poor candidate and fought a negative campaign which turned people off. However it shows people still vote Lib Dem at local level and then move across to the main parties for the General, this has now been the pattern for a couple of decades in this constituency.
Valley Boy seems to be unaware that Nicola originally took her council seat from a well established Tory (majority 50). She increased that to 1446 this time, not because that is the usual “pattern” but because of the energy she has put into her council work.
I am told by people watching the count that had the score in her council ward area been repeated throughout the constituency she could have won the seat.
She proved her point that Labour could not win and increased the Lib/Dem vote by 3.7% which is not a bad achievement for a “poor candidate” in an election she was not expected to win. I trust you mean ‘poor’ by comparison with Lord Ashcroft’s wealth that Jason has assured us he did not benefit from?
What I thought was ‘poor’ was the Examiner article in which both Jason and Debbie were allowed to make deprecating (very “negative”) remarks about Nicola so close to the election. Not that it would have made a significant difference to the outcome.
Also, the Tory press and candidates produced a very distorted and damaging account of Lib/Dem policy on immigration. This may have made a very significant difference and helped to kill the Lib/Dem euphoria following the TV debates.
Come to think of it I also thought it was very wrong of Jason to tell people he would bring back maternity services to Huddersfield. It is not in any MP’s power to do this but that did not stop him promising.
Despite his tendency to be economical with the truth I wish him well. He should be OK in the coalition After all he was a Lib/Dem himself wasn’t he?
I was at some of the debates and read the leaflets, and Jason only promised to fight to try and bring back maternity services to HRI. You can already see the lies the Lib Dems will be trying next time. At the debate in Golcar, Nicola said she have given up the fight.
The Lib Dems inherited £60,000 which I presume was spent during this campaign on paid for delivery. Besides the election addresses I have only had hand delivered leaflets from Debbie and Jason since Christmas.
The only negative comments made by Debbie and Jason in the Examiner about Nicola were about Lib Dem tactics. Nicola did say she didn’t write her own leaflets so she thought she shouldn’t have been blamed. As candidate she was the one ultimately responsible for the tone of her campaign, The two Lib Dem councillors who post on here have a lot to answer for.
Valley boy, I don’t think you can recognise integrity when you see it. Are you a disillusioned ex Liberal or something? You certainly seem well versed in their affairs.
Nicola was scrupulously honest throughout the campaign but no one who heard the Today programme can say the same for Jason can they?
Why you imagine Nicola did not accept responsibility for the Lib/Dem literature I can’t imagine and why you are still beefing about it is beyond me!
Believe me Scapegoathillbilly lots of people over here are beefing about it, not just Valleyboy. They believed what they were being told and more fool them for not looking more carefully at what statistics were being used. They voted Lib/Dem to try to stop the Tories getting in and then find that the party they voted for have jumped into bed with the Tories.
It’s shameful.
Has Holmfirth, of ‘Last of the Summer Wine’ fame of course, been in this seat since its creation?
It was in Penistone from 1885-1918 and Colne Valley since then
Did Penistone constituency contain any Sheffield territory back then?
A Penistone & Holmfirth constituency (losing the urban Huddersfield wards) would be good for the Conservatives now.
It didn;t include any part of the current Sheffield city area but it did include Hoyland and Worsborough in Barnsley so I doubt it would be much more helpful. It also included Kirkburton as well as effectively the Holme Valley South ward in West Yorkshire
1918 Penistone:
Barnsley section – Penistone E, Penisteon W, Dodworth, Rockingham, Hoyland, Worsborough
Lab 12100
Con 8890
Ind 6081
LibD 2446
BNP 3080
Grn 140
Kirklees section:
Con 7939
LibD 3876
Lab 3569
Grn 3082
BNP 909
Total
Con 16829
Lab 15669
LibD 6322
Ind 6081
BNP 3989
Grn 3222
Replace the wards of Worsborough, Rockingham and Hoyland with Holme Valley N and Colne Valley gives:
Con 19962
Lab 12083
LibD 11124
Ind 5242
Grn 3945
BNP 3393
‘the Holme Valley South ward in West Yorkshire’
This ward includes Holmfirth
The Tory share in Colne Valley in October 1974 was only 14.8%. But how similar was that seat to the present constituency in which the Tories have just taken 37.0% (which incidentally is identical to their national share)?
It wasn’t all that similar but it wouldn’t necessarily have been less Tory. Basically from this seats Colne Valley, Holme Valley N and S and Golcar were included in the old seat. Crosland Moor and Lindley were in Huddersfield West. Crosland Moor is Labour inclined and Lindley a LD marginal so the loss of those areas wouldn’t do the Tories much harm. The areas then included which aren’t now were Denby Dale – a Labour Conservative marginal which is trending Tory and Saddleworth which is LD voting but with the Tories competitive. my guess is the result on the old boundaries wouldn’t have been much different
In that case this must count as one of the best Tory improvements over the last 30-40 years.
There must have been significant tactical voting for Richard Wainwright by natural Conservatives.
Although it is the sort of area that has demographically trended Conservative over the last 50 years, in the same manner as Calder Valley and its predecessors.
I’ve worked out a notional result for the pre-1983 Colne Valley seat. This won’t be an exact fit but is based on the following whole wards: Colne Valley, Holme Valley N, Holme Valley S, Golcar, Denby Dale, Saddleworth N, Saddleworth S. I have also included half the votes from Saddleworth W & Lees. I would guess the Tories would be weaker in the Lees end of that ward but don’t know for sure and in any case the overall result isn’t much different if you include all the votes from that ward or if you include none of them:
Colne Valley
Con 23296 38.4%
LD 17196 28.3%
Lab 14753 24.3%
BNP 2245.5 3.7%
UKIP 1471.5 2.4%
Grn 741 1.2%
oth 1023 1.7%
Con maj 6100 10.1%
So as I suggested, not very much different from the result on these boundaries but in fact slightly better for the Tories. When these boundaries came into effect in 1983 it was reckoned to be better for the Tories to the tune of about 6%. The reason would be that the Huddersfield West wards were then stronger for the Tories than now while the Saddleworth, Denby Dale and Colne and Holme Valley areas would have been weaker. Of course the tactical voting that Richard mentions would have skewed the result – even to some extent in 1979 though their share did shoot up to 27.5% then which must have been one of their biggest increases and is reminiscent of the result this year in Oldham East & Saddleworth
The LibDems failed to win a ward in this constituency this year, losing Lindley and Colne Valley to the Conservatives and Golcar to Labour.
When was the last time the LibDems didn’t win a ward?
1992 – Labour won Golcar that year while Colne Valley went Independent. The other four wards were Conservative.
I think the Independent councillor was a former Tory councillor who had left the party
Hard to imagine the Conservatives winning Crosland Moor now.
That really must have been a one-off. Actually the Netherton end is quite upmarket. It has a very high ethnic minority population