Colchester
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19213 (46.9%)
Conservative: 13349 (32.6%)
Labour: 8418 (20.5%)
Other: 0 (0%)
Majority: 5864 (14.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14868 (33.1%)
Labour: 8886 (19.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 21145 (47.1%)
Majority: 6277 (14%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13074 (29.9%)
Labour: 10925 (25%)
Liberal Democrat: 18627 (42.6%)
UKIP: 631 (1.4%)
Other: 479 (1.1%)
Majority: 5553 (12.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16305 (31.4%)
Labour: 15891 (30.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 17886 (34.4%)
Referendum: 1776 (3.4%)
Other: 148 (0.3%)
Majority: 1581 (3%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Bob Russell (Lib Dem) born 1946, London. Educated at St Helena Secondary Modern. Former journalist and publicity officer for Essex university. Colchester councillor from 1971-2002, originally elected as Labour before defecting to the SDP in 1981. Leader of Colchester council 1987-1991. Contested Colchester for Labour in 1979. First elected as MP for Colchester in 1997. Spokesman on legal affairs 1997-1999, sport 1999-2001, whip 2001-2007, culture, media and sport 2001-205 and defence 2005- (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Peter Lynn (Green) Professor of Survey Methodology at Essex University.
Jill Skalla (Conservative) born Essex. Formerly head of operations for National Childrens Homes.
Michael Powell (Labour) Educated at Friends’ School, Saffron Walden and Glasgow University. Sub-editor for Essex County Newspapers.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94741
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 17.7%
Born outside UK: 8.2%
White: 95.6%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 68.8%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 5%
Graduates 16-74: 18.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.5%
Owner-Occupied: 66.2%
Social Housing: 19% (Council: 13.1%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 9.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.3%
39 Responses
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Twickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
Some local knowledge would be useful here. Nor do I Know why the Conservative candidate stepped down.
A 14 point gap in a real contest for government, should be winnable with the polls as they are, but it is a difficult seat for the Tories.
The local elections in 2008 were poor for the Tories, although if it was for a specific local issue, maybe there’s a chance of turning that around.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pmLOL Justin and all your posts are the epitome of unbiased comment . Are you saying I told a fib and she has not resigned ?
August 7th, 2008 at 2:35 pmConservative Home confirms the story. The stated reason being “work and family responsibilities.”
August 7th, 2008 at 4:45 pmRuislip Northwood
I havent really considered this seat to be in contention, though as Joe says it should be. I guess we will have to wait till Bob Russell retires. It is a prticulalry difficult seat, like Cambridge (though not as difficult as that) because of a normal centre left majority. When that vote is divided the Tories can win. If its Labour held it can swing back with the ‘pendulum’. But if the LDs have got a foothold then they are apt to annex a large part of the Labour vote which makes it very difficult to take it back.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:13 pmThe Tories should be able to advance into the high 30s% but with Labour likely squeezed further that wouldnt be enough - in 1997 it would have been.
It would , I guess, come out about 47-37-16 unless the Tories can go for a major push, but it is a difficult one to turn round if their machine has lost control over a number of local issues. It should be possible.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:43 pmRuislip Northwood
The local election results were very poor for the Conservatives here this May. Not only they dropped back compared with 2007 but they have done worse in all the local elections since 2005 than they did in 2004. Though the Green party, who didnt contest any seats in 2004, have emerged on the scene, their decent showing (about 9% in each of the three sets of local elections) does not appear to have come at the expense of the LDs.
2004
LD 10070 43.7 %
Con 8109 35.2 %
Lab 4045 17.6 %
Ind 807 3.5 %
2008
LD 11146 45.2 %
August 7th, 2008 at 10:32 pmCon 7110 28.8 %
Lab 2998 12.2 %
G 2162 8.8 %
Ind 1247 5.1 %
cambridge
Of course Colchester is quite a bit less left wing than Cambridge (where I would think recent results show 80% of voters are left leaning.
I do know that the Lib-Dems where a little worried about their vote steadily falling in council elections, they put in a real effort here and pushed themselves up and the Tories down, not easy in the current climate.
The Greens almost won two seats in Colchester borough, Castle a few hundred behind and Wivenhoe Quey (not in this seat) only 150 behind. Not bad for only 3 years in exsistence.
The Tory’s will really have to build momentum here if they want to win, so far they seem to be losing it.
I would think the Tories stand still here, the Lib-Dems perhaps squeezing Labour a little with the Greens also taking votes off Labour.
I wonder if UKIP will bother with this one neither they nor the Greens contested it in 2005 though the former did in 2001.
From what we see in the locals the Greens have taken votes off Labour. I think this would indicate the same will happen at a general.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:17 pmIt’s ironic that a seat in Essex (where the Lib Dems have no historical strength whatsoever) which the Lib Dems sneaked an unexoected victory in 1997, should look a lot safer prospect than a clutchful of seats in Devon and Cornwall, where they have more or less always been ther main opposition to the Tories
Testament to Bob Russell’s sound record as an MP I’d suggest
August 13th, 2008 at 3:01 pmThe fact that Colchester is a town with a large army presence makes it even more surprising that its the libdems and not the tories that seem to be the dominant force.
I wonder how the libdems stance on the war in iraq plays here?
Traditionally such towns - Aldershot for e.g - are generally skewed to the right.
Bob Russell looks safe for another term at least.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:54 pmPages: « 1 2 [3] Show All