Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill
2010 Results:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3519 (8.45%)
SNP: 7014 (16.85%)
Majority: 20714 (49.75%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 24725 (64.5%)
SNP: 5206 (13.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4605 (12%)
Conservative: 2775 (7.2%)
Other: 1033 (2.7%)
Majority: 19519 (50.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631: Name of seat changed from Coatbridge and Chryston.
2001 Result
Conservative: 2171 (7.2%)
Labour: 19807 (65.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2293 (7.6%)
SNP: 4493 (14.8%)
Other: 1547 (5.1%)
Majority: 15314 (50.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 3216 (8.6%)
Labour: 25697 (68.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2048 (5.4%)
SNP: 6402 (17%)
Referendum: 249 (0.7%)
Majority: 19295 (51.3%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Tom Clarke(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Fiona Houston (Conservative) Tom Clarke(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Kenneth Elder (Liberal Democrat)Frances McGlinchey (SNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87368
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 24.5%
Over 60: 18.8%
Born outside UK: 1.6%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.7%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.3%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 11.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.3%
Owner-Occupied: 57.9%
Social Housing: 36.7% (Council: 34.2%, Housing Ass.: 2.5%)
Privately Rented: 1.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.1%
20,000 majority here again probably.
This seat has the largest numerical Labour majority in Britain at the moment. It is also the seat with the largest proportion of Roman Catholics in GB.
That’s interesting. I would think those two facts are not unconnected.
I bet Liverpool Scotland holds the all time record though.
It would have been connected upto about 20 years ago when religion was a huge player in Scottish politics when Catholics tended to vote Labour and Protestants tended to vote Conservative and Unionist. However the lines are now blurred where people of all faiths support different parties. I use myself as a “protestant” who is a Labour activist. As for the next election get the scales in.
Didn’t the Conservatives still have a lead among Scottish Protestants in 1992?
If you mean people who identified themselves as Church of Scotland/Episcopalian/whatever on the census, I doubt it. If you’re referring to members of the Protestant Churches, however, I suspect that you’ll probably be right. In the 80s at some point there was a survey carried out amongst Church of Scotland ministers, which stated that 45% of CoS clergymen voted/supported the Conservative Party.
As I very vaguely remember the Conservatives were abour 37-32 ahead of Labour among Protestants but Labour was about 65-20 ahead among Catholics. How they defined Protestant and Catholic I don’t know.
I’ve got the 1992 figures somewhere, but I can’t remember where. My memory is that Labour were fractionally ahead (33-32 or something like that) among Church of Scotland members, but the Tories were ahead among Episcopalians. This, though, is a huge shift from earlier in the century, when the Tories would have been comfortably ahead among CoS members.
45% Conservative for CoS clergy seems rather high to me, even when the Tories were polling in the mid-20s across Scotland as a whole.
Incidentally, SNP support in 1992 was highest among those of no religious belief, something that has probably been the case throughout the party’s history (or at least over the last forty years).
I imagine the CoS clergy poll would have been carried out earlier in the 80s when the Tories got approximately 30% of the vote in Scotland.
Apparently Mr Clarke will be the only Labour MP to hold on in scotland next time, with a majority of round 2700
If the Lab->SNP swing is replicated across the country that is!
Con gain.
Not really.
Actually, Tom Clarke was elected at a 1982 by-election for Coatbridge and Airdrie, succeeding the late James Dempsey. 1982 was a bad year for Labour too.
Yeah, a straight Lab -> Con swing of 31 points may be a stretch in Scotland at the moment
My prediction for this seat;
Labour 23000
SNP 9000
Cons 4000
Lib Dem 3000
Others 1500
Fiona Houston has been selected for the Consrvatives here. She stood in Edinburgh Central in 2007.
Safest Labour seat….Ever! Well, not ever, perhaps, but would not have fallen even to Glasgow East levels of swing.
Labour held on quite easily at the Coatbridge and Airdrie by-election of 1982, which wasn’t a very good year for them.
Most likely – May 2010 (still)
*Lab 25,112 61.7% -2.8%
SNP 9,035 22.2% +8.6%
C 3,663 9.0% +1.8%
LD 2,930 7.2% -4.8%
Total votes 40,700
Lab maj 16,077 39.5% (-11.4%)
Lab Hold
Swing 5.7% from Lab to SNP
Still no SNP candidate selected? One gets the feeling this is a monolithically solid Labour seat. That phrase with the words “red rosette” and “donkey” spring to mind here
Lab Hold= 15,000 maj
Does seem odd that there’s not an SNP candidate here!
Labour 23000
SNP 7000
SCUP 4000
LD 2000
There has been a SNP candidate for some time – Frances McGlinchey. Full set of SNP candidates on snpDOTorg/people/candidates/Westminster
Labour
SNP
Conservative
Libdem
Majority – 17000
This is presently the safest Labour seat in the UK – but I thought that was Bootle?
Lim Dem PPC here is Kenneth Elder. More info on libdemsDOTorgDOTuk.
What about the SSP? They standing here ?
Lab Hold
Maj 18 800
Lab maj 16,000
It is so depressing that I live in this constituency!
The safest Labour seat in Britain and no-one except the main parties standing.
Think it will be a “None of the above,” on my ballot paper.
Relunctant Hero:
Which parties would you like to be able to consider voting for?
LAB HOLD
Prediction: Coatbridge and Chryston 2011
Labour 16500
SNP 6500
Cons 2000
LD 1000
This MP has a rather odd voice and delivery. Is it just his accent? I don’t want to be rude re his ruddy cheeks.
Can’t imagine this ever going Conservative, even if Tom Clarke defected to them.
Not sure that is likely.
He’ll presumably retire at the next election anyway.
Coatbridge appears to have been carved up in the boundary changes.
I think it’s true to say that Coatbridge elected a Tory (or ally) in 1931, but not since. The only Scottish seats outside Glasgow which Labour held in 1931 were Hamilton, and perhaps oddly Dumbarton.
Not so odd when you consider it was Dumbarton district of burghs and covered just the towns of Dumbarton and Clydebank – nothing like the Dumbarton seat of 1983 vintage which was somewhat marginal because it included Helensburgh etc
I did hear that Central Office were targeting this for the local elections, but suspect that isn’t right.
2015 most likely
Lab 63.5 (-2.9)
SNP 27 (+10.1)
Con 6.6 (-1.5)
LD 2.9 (-5.6)