Clwyd South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10477 (30.21%)
Labour: 13311 (38.38%)
Liberal Democrat: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.68%)
BNP: 1100 (3.17%)
UKIP: 819 (2.36%)
Majority: 2834 (8.17%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14174 (45.2%)
Conservative: 7988 (25.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4886 (15.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2959 (9.4%)
Other: 1376 (4.4%)
Majority: 6185 (19.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8460 (25.7%)
Labour: 14808 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 5105 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3111 (9.4%)
UKIP: 644 (2%)
Other: 803 (2.4%)
Majority: 6348 (19.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8319 (24.8%)
Labour: 17217 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3426 (10.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3982 (11.9%)
UKIP: 552 (1.6%)
Majority: 8898 (26.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9091 (23.1%)
Labour: 22901 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3684 (9.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2500 (6.3%)
Referendum: 1207 (3.1%)
Majority: 13810 (35.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Susan Elan Jones (Labour) Southwark councillor.
John Bell (Conservative) born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Keele University as a mature student. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Delyn 2005, Clwyd South in 2007 Welsh elections.Susan Elan Jones (Labour) Southwark councillor.Bruce Roberts (Liberal Democrat)Janet Ryder (Plaid Cymru) born 1955, Sunderland. Former teacher and youth worker. Denbighshire county councillor 1995-1999. Assembly member for North Wales since 1999.Nick Powell (UKIP)Sarah Hynes (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69269
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.1%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 15.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.7%
Owner-Occupied: 64%
Social Housing: 25.9% (Council: 22.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.4%
THe governor , I have lived in this area for majority of my life, the North east of the constitiuency in which most people live has traditionally voted labour as seen in 2005 election……I never stated that this will continue to be the case…if they are anything like me they are probably feeling mind numbed by the whole experience
…
Watch the rhostyllen results……they will probably not be favouring Labour after the 600 unneccessary new houses forced on them by the national trust that happened to be under a Labour government. The area was totally against the plans I heard….and what about the new landfill sitefor rubbish from Liverpool
, will Labour take the fall?
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Lab maj 2,500
Ive not seen a single labour poster in this constituency yet ! I know that’s hardly scientific but by this time in a GE campaign there’s usually loads ! I have a feeling that turnout here could be well down on what it was in 2005, I know of many labour supporters who say ” they’re aren’t going to bother” this time ! I think this could be fairly close !
Lab maj 1500
Labour might be lucky to hold on here. The Conservatives may take this; it`s gone Tory before (1983-7), when it was part of Clwyd South-West. The Labour vote has been falling for a decade, and is likely to fall further.
I also suspect that there might be a surprisingly larger than might be expected BNP vote.
@ Markl
I have seen quite a number of Labour posters up; one in Llangollen, a few in Johnstown and in Rhos. Having said that, I do live in the Labour heartland to the North-East so that isn’t particularly surprising.
I’d be very surprised if this wasn’t a Labour hold. I can’t see the Conservatives getting the swing they require to get the seat, though I do expect that general disaffection with Labour will result in their vote getting slashed significantly.
If any seat could produce a shock, it could be this one. Might be interesting.
Hi MarkL
‘Labour hold onto Vale of Clwyd??’…..they might just hold on here, but have no chance in Vale of Clwyd
LAB HOLD.
In view of the polls it’s going a bit too far to say Labour has “no chance” in Vale of Clwyd.
barnaby…vale of clwyd will fall if labour down the valley in towns like rhuddlan fail to come out …..;)
well they did come out
yes they did…I can’t blame them….tories were openly wanting to cut benefits
Not as bad a result for Labour here as nearby Alyn & Deeside – I do wonder what may happen in 2011 here with Karen Sinclair AM standing down
Conservatives have selected Paul Rogers, a local councillor, to fight this seat at the WA elections next year.
This could be an interesting one!
Rogers fought tooth and nail against a proposed gipsy camp in the brymbo ward he represents ( which is hardly a natural tory area ) so I would have thought he would have very strong support from that area at least! I think Karen Sinclair was reasonably popular but is standing down this time.
Could be very close, this one!
I think that Paul Rogers would be a brilliant AM, he is a hard working Councillor and if he stood again he would win a landslide.
Depending on who Labour stands I think the results will be:
Conservative: 6500
Labour: 6400
Plaid Cymru: 3000
Lib Dems: 1500
The Labour candidate is the highly respected Ken Skates and I think he’s got a very good chance of keeping this seat.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Hold
KEN SKATES – to hold this seat maybe even a rise in the vote for labour !
I went to a local debate with all 4 candidates and Ken smashed them out of the water.
Paul (con) and Bruce (lib) just bumbled and couldnt justify a single policy.
LABOUR HOLD !!
Callum,
I went to the same hustings, and must admit got a different impression.
As an unbiased person with no political axe to grind, I thought the Plaid man was far better. He obviously knew his facts and the local issues.
You’re quite right the Lib Dem mumbled his way through, and the Tory was completely out of his depth poor lad – I felt sorry for him to be honest. The Labour guy had a nice smile, and was very slick and smooth, but came over a bit like Blair.
He performed reasonably well until his response to the tuition fees – how can a Labour candidate have the face to diss other parties for raising tuition fees when his party introduced them?! He lost me completely then!
There’s only Plaid placards around, and a few Labour posters in the windows locally here. the talk in the pub is of voters either not bothering or turning to Plaid cause their candidate has been absolutely everywhere – he’s been down my road at least three times! I had a phone call from Labour, but haven’t heard anything other than posted guff from the others.
I don’t doubt that Labour will probably retain the seat. But I expect Liberals to collapse, the Tories to lose a significant amount and Plaid to leapfrog all into second.
This could well be a Labour-Plaid marginal for the National Assembly post May 6th.
Regarding the North Wales region and the Labour Election communication for the regional ballot, there is no list of the Labour candidates names and no photographs of them on their leaflet, just a photograph of some guy from South Wales. Has the Labour campaign been hampered by a shortage of money?
Lab 45 (+10)
Con 32 (+3)
PC 16 (-4)
LD 7 (-2)
Pensioners will be currently getting increases in their net pay with less tax to pay, they may be inclined to stay loyal to Either the Conservatives or the Lib Dems.
I’m surprised that the Tory PPC here wants to stand again (ConHome). He’d be 68 in 2015.
Does anyone know the oldest age for a new Member?
There is some doubt over the DOB of Piara Khabra, but he was possibly 70 when first elected in 1992. Not sure if that is absolutely the oldest – possibly this fellow
htt p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Henry_Walker
John Bell contested Alyn & Deeside in this year’s Welsh Assembly election
How would the pre-1983 Denbigh seat have voted in 2010? Any ideas?
Probably Labour, but only just.
Prediction for 2015-
Jones (Labour)- 15, 627 (45.5%, +7.1%)
Tory- 9, 383 (27.3%, -2.9%)
Plaid- 3, 974 (11.5%, +2.8%)
Lib Dem- 3, 442 (10.0%, -7.2%)
Others- 1, 895 (5.5%, -0.1%)
Lab hold.
Turnout- 34, 321.
Majority- 6, 244 (18.1%)
Swing- +5.0% From Con to Lab.
Adam- fascinating. The 1979 result in Denbigh was-
Con 45
Lib 28
Lab 18
Clearly a lot has changed.