Clwyd South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14174 (45.2%)
Conservative: 7988 (25.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4886 (15.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2959 (9.4%)
Other: 1376 (4.4%)
Majority: 6185 (19.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8460 (25.7%)
Labour: 14808 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 5105 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3111 (9.4%)
UKIP: 644 (2%)
Other: 803 (2.4%)
Majority: 6348 (19.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8319 (24.8%)
Labour: 17217 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3426 (10.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3982 (11.9%)
UKIP: 552 (1.6%)
Majority: 8898 (26.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9091 (23.1%)
Labour: 22901 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3684 (9.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2500 (6.3%)
Referendum: 1207 (3.1%)
Majority: 13810 (35.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Martyn Jones(Labour) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: John Bell (Conservative) born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Keele University as a mature student. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Delyn 2005, Clwyd South in 2007 Welsh elections.Susan Elan Jones (Labour) Southwark councillor.Bruce Roberts (Liberal Democrat)Janet Ryder (Plaid Cymru) born 1955, Sunderland. Former teacher and youth worker. Denbighshire county councillor 1995-1999. Assembly member for North Wales since 1999.David Rowlands (UKIP) Sarah Hynes (BNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69269
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.1%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 15.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.7%
Owner-Occupied: 64%
Social Housing: 25.9% (Council: 22.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.4%
And Susan Elan Jones the Welsh speaking, Welsh Chapel attending local girl would appear to be best placed to gain the Welsh speaking vote
Did she get selected off an All women shortlist?
But surely the rise in the number of people speaking Welsh is mostly a result of the language being artificially supported by government. With Welsh compulsory in schools up to the age of 16 and the proliferation of jobs in the public sector and the BBC for which proficiency in Welsh is a considerable advantage for an applicant, it is hardly surprising that the number of Welsh speakers is increasing.
Were I a Welsh speaker though, I would find the facts behind the recent increase something of an embarrassment. I would want my language to survive and thrive on its own merits, not as a result of being placed on some state funded life support system.
I do think that from a party political point of view Plaid have to be a bit careful of making too much of an issue of the promotion of the Welsh language. Creating an impression that one’s Welshness is in any way related to proficiency in the language runs the risk of implying to large numbers of people that Plaid is simply not a party for them. I don’t think that they can afford to be placing that kind of ceiling on their level of support. They need to bear in mind that the same surveys that have shown an increase in the number of Welsh speakers over the past twenty years also show that 1/4 of Welsh residents were born outside Wales, and that voters from this group are unlikely to be won over by an over emphasis on the language issue.
I would submit that the difficulties surrounding the issue of the promotion of the Welsh language for a Welsh nationalist party is one of the explanations as to why Welsh nationalism has yet to enjoy levels of support akin to that of Scottish nationalism.
Kieran, do you live or have you ever lived in Wales?
When I first came to live in Wales there was a European election. I was most impressed by the Plaid Cymru candidate Dafydd Wigley who had a campaign bus always about in our area. I voted for the Man and not the party.
Sarah Hynes selected for the BNP.
We could be in a 1983 moment again in this seat at this election. In 1983 Labour, Conservative and the Liberals were neck and neck here. I should say it was the Alliance(SDP) who apparently fought the seat then. The Conservitive won with a 1551 vote and the Alliance (SDP) were in second place.
But that was a different seat Smokey. That included some heavily Tory territory which is now in Clwyd West. I don’t think Labour are likely to be in such difficulties here – oh no hold on – I don’t live in Wales – so I’m not allowed to comment am I.
I take it you arent suggesting that the LDs are about to turn this into a three-way marginal?
Of course the Liberals had had some strength in the old Denbigh seat, but the reason for the strong showing by the SDP was that their candidate was Tom Ellis who had been the Labour (then SDP) MP for Wrexham since 1970. Almost half the electorate of Clwyd SW came in from Wrexham with most of the rest coming from Denbigh. Subsequent boundary changes have shifted this seat so that it is now more Wrexham and less Denbigh (Denbigh itself and Ruthin are now in the Vale of Clwyd).
Interestingly Wrexham itself was a three-way marginal in 1983 and one wonders if Tom Ellis might have won if he had stood there instead. It looks like it was rather similar to the Greenock situation where the sitting Labour MP defected to the SDP but the Liberals insisted on keeping the nomination forcing the incumbent to fight a neighbouring seat with the consequence that they did well in both seats, but won neither.
Correction Ruthin is in Clwyd West.
Denbigh is in Vale of Clwyd
“Kieran, do you live or have you ever lived in Wales?”
You’ve got me there Smokey! I have never lived in Wales, but I like to think that fact doesn’t invalidate my assertions entirely.
I don’t doubt that there are some non-Welsh residents of Wales that vote for Plaid. I was merely casting around for explanations as to why in general Plaid’s performances in Wales lag behind those of the SNP in Scotland. In particular since 2000 Plaid have taken a few backward steps electorally.
In fact there are some leading figures in Plaid Cymru who aren’t Welsh, to be fair. For example I understand that Helen Mary Jones, one of their most effective representatives, is actually English.
I believe the PC candidate in this seat was born in England.
“I was merely casting around for explanations as to why in general Plaid’s performances in Wales lag behind those of the SNP in Scotland. ”
Long time conquered I reckon.
“In particular since 2000 Plaid have taken a few backward steps electorally.”
We managed to take real advantage of the Labour chaos of Rhodri Morgan v Alun Michael at the time, which in retrospect was a bit of a short term blip. But still making progress (it’s a long march…)
The Plaid Cymru vote is different in Westminster elections. In this seat in 1997 Westminster election PC got 2,500 votes and 6.3% , while in 1999 National Assembly for Wales first election PC won second place here with 5,511 votes and 25.3%