Clwyd South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14174 (45.2%)
Conservative: 7988 (25.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4886 (15.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2959 (9.4%)
Other: 1376 (4.4%)
Majority: 6185 (19.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8460 (25.7%)
Labour: 14808 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 5105 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3111 (9.4%)
UKIP: 644 (2%)
Other: 803 (2.4%)
Majority: 6348 (19.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8319 (24.8%)
Labour: 17217 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3426 (10.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3982 (11.9%)
UKIP: 552 (1.6%)
Majority: 8898 (26.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9091 (23.1%)
Labour: 22901 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3684 (9.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2500 (6.3%)
Referendum: 1207 (3.1%)
Majority: 13810 (35.1%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Martyn Jones (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
John Bell (Conservative) born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Keele University as a mature student. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Delyn 2005, Clwyd South in 2007 Welsh elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69269
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.1%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 15.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.7%
Owner-Occupied: 64%
Social Housing: 25.9% (Council: 22.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.4%
Have I stumbled on a little battle occuring on the borders??? Let the English beware the Red Dragon.
Anyway in the news today it seems that New Labour may be trying a self destruct button. Or someone has started to leak ideas that are as active as a Dodo.
The local AM Karen Sinclair is not too well fighting cancer - but hoping to return soon to Senedd.
Some wise idiot either in Cardiff or in London have sounded off about the successor to Rhodri’s crown. They claim that there is no strong candidate and they will have to parachute in a better person to be AM and then First Minister on Rhodders retirement before the next Senedd election.
The two great ones are Peter Hain MP or Eluned Morgan MEP (who btw seems rather happy in Europe thanks).
The point is that someone has thought out loud that maybe Karen can retire due to ill health and we can have a by-election and ensure the coronation goes smoothly.
Karen’s majority is not robust and as mentioned before all the other parties have some stron bases in the constituency to work upon.
If they forced her out New Labour will not be able to count on the sheep mentality of the electorate. They will lose.
What is it with New Labour at the moment - have they actually got that arrogant that they think they can get what they want by ordeal of the press? It does not bode well.
Don’t underestimate the “sheep” mentality of the electorate here Richard! I used to live in this constituency and believe me if its wearing a red rosette they’ll vote for it - sheep, donkey - whatever !
“The two great ones are Peter Hain MP or Eluned Morgan MEP”
I must admit Richard I thought the article was a joke (in the case of Ms Sinclair an insensitive one)
To describe Eluned Morgan as fit to be First Minister is a particularly ridiculous concept. No track record of any achievment at all.
Mark
I agree to an extent - at the last Senedd election I was regional organiser for the constituency. We felt that it was a rather “big ask” to be anything other than Labour - and to that extent I also salute the Tory and Liberals who stood there.
However Karen’s majority is far lower than can be called comfortable and there are hot spots (as I posted many moons ago). From a Plaid pov with care we can easily gain a few hundred votes and if added to Lib and Tory swings then any majority there is failing.
Peter Hain has a pretty poor track record for Wales and also has the difficulties over his finances for the leadership bid.
Eluned is a very competant MEP and much better suited to there (linguist and with a background in Europe why would she want to move elsewhere - especially if Plaid and the other parties do well then the FM post is not certain).
Labour HQ remember when you tried to parachute Wayne David into Senedd???? (for others the result was a Plaid win in a solid labour seat….OK it reverted next election but still the message was made clear.)
Dewi - having been on the fringes of politics as candidate and Exec member I know how life can be - but I have to say that if this was a leak without Ms Sinclair’s knowledge this was very poor - very poor indeed, and some Labour supporters need to ask what happened here and make sure that the wishes of Clwyd South CLP and the Member are respected and not HQ.
On the point of 2010 - I feel that Martin’s 6k maj is safe-ish. He is a long standing MP and a local constituency MP but he does need some sort of publicity campaign to make himself known as a senior MP. Plus the fact that Clwyd S has its share of wards which went Labour only around 97 then I feel he may be looking at a fall in his majority to maybe 1500 or less. Depends on the Tory candidate (and Lib dem in the far South).
Still Mr Jones shouldn’t plan retiring back to the brewery just yet.
From a personal point I needed his help when I was a constituent and I have to say he was an example of best practice as an MP and even wrote to me after the problem was sorted saying how he was happy he could help.
Welsh Speaking% 22%
John Bell used to teach me economics and politics (we used to joke he was the only scouse tory there was!).
Whilst i’m not a natural tory he is a hard-working, personable man who has a lot of life experience and would make a good MP. Martin Jones has a decent reputation though, and should hold on though i’d expect a much lower majority, perhaps about 2,500.
Martyn Jones spends far too much time in france and is barely seen around the communities and is known as the invisible MP!
I can see John Bell taking this seat especially with Janet Ryder standing .. she is likely to take a few disollusioned Labour voters to give him a boost.
What is also interesting is young Paul Rogers taking Brymbo at the recent council elections - a tory taking the ward for the first time in 35 years! I can see him going for the assembly in the near future!
Martyn Jones has announced that he is retiring and will not be standing at the next election.
I wonder if this seat could be an opportunity for ex Labour AMs, like Alun Pugh or Denise Idris Jones
Matt
Yes Denise bring back Denise…
Maybe gareth Thomas ex MP for Clwyd West? Alun Pugh has another job ..
Martin Jones going must be good news for the Tories and possibly Plaid…
Plaid who got 9 percent Plaid?
That Plaid?
Can I point out a couple of points.
There is rumour that this will be an undeomocratic (women only) seat. (Why as a disbled bod am I excluded from looking at a seat?)
Martyn was a good MP - the problem for the new one is that they have to face the Labour backlash and also the fact that
Cannot wait for his beer to get ready!
Wouldnt surprise me if its an AWS bearing in mind Betty Willams is standing down, and has been replaced by a man, which leaves only Donna Hutton in Clwyd West (and I would be amazed if she won the seat)
Don’t be too surprised if this seat is ultra marginal after the next election. The days when ‘bubbles the chimp wearing a red rosette’ can win for Labour are numbered!
This seat might produce a surprise on a good night for Tories.