2,600 I meant to say

I’d agree with that.
A few months ago I predicted a Conservative gain, but was shouted down.

I think there could be a strong case for saying the demographics aren’t that good for the Tories, and Labour could get more votes out than in 2005.

If the polls even up, this would be close either way, but Labour could hold on more easily now.

The Lib Dems have selected Doug Pickett here.

Look at the local election results in Cleethorpes and rural wards in NELC - Conservatives outperformed the Lib Dems in most wards by large majorities. Labour have two local councillors in this area and all of their other councillors have been defeated - even in Immingham - in recent elections and replaced by Lib Dems.

Shona is widely disliked in the area due to her incessant support of unpopular Labour Government policies, and lack of vocal support for local views. Labour support in this area is restricted to comparatively few traditional lifetime supporters. The hope for Shona is the poor quality of the candidates from the other two major parties

vote dave predicts a coservative gain, so Labour will win by a mile, by then the tories will have convinced thier workers and voters, its so nailed on working and voting is pointless.

never seen anything like this over confidence! tories will lose Shipley.

“never seen anything like this over confidence! tories will lose Shipley.”

Ryburn you’re posting on the wrong website.

If you really think that Labour is going to gain Shipley, a result which would lead them to winning a bigger overall majority at the next election, then you should be spending your time on Politicalbetting.com.

I’m sure you would find people their would give you very generous odds on Labour gaining Shipley or on winning the election as a whole.

Paul D is correct in his comments over the non-aggression pact in NELC, though this was suspended at the May 2008 Elections. Recent council results, added to the national mood and a growing local dislike of the Labour incumbent will be favourable to the Tories. Labour have taken a hammering locally as many of their core voters were affected by the doubling of the 10p tax band.

Immingham ward is now solid Tory, where 5 years ago it returned 3 Labour councillors in a traditional blue-collar port town. Doug Pickett for the Liberals is an experienced local campaigner in more working-class areas and is more likely to take votes from Labour in Sidney Sussex and Croft Baker wards than from the Tories in Waltham or Humberston. It should also be noted that the Tories achieved a swing of just greater than the national swing in the 2005 GE, and that at a time when the local party was in disarray after having deselected a previous candidate in December 2004 and subsequently running a very shoddy campaign at the general. I have it on very good authority from a former Labour parliamentary researcher and local Labour activist that Shona has a very difficult relationship with Labour councillors and that they are having a membership crisis in the area.

In contrast, the local Tory party, while not the strongest in the country by a long way, is regrouping, building a reliable ward network and supporter base and is more effectively run than before. They are also likely to be able to raise considerably more money than Labour and are receiving support from CCHQ. There may well be Ashcroft money on the way.

Con gain by 2,000