City of Chester
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.08%)
Liberal Democrat: 8930 (19.09%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.62%)
Green: 535 (1.14%)
English Democrat: 594 (1.27%)
Independent: 99 (0.21%)
Majority: 2583 (5.52%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17088 (38.8%)
Conservative: 16275 (37%)
Liberal Democrat: 9611 (21.8%)
Other: 1063 (2.4%)
Majority: 813 (1.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16543 (36.8%)
Labour: 17458 (38.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9818 (21.9%)
UKIP: 776 (1.7%)
Other: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 915 (2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14866 (33.1%)
Labour: 21760 (48.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6589 (14.7%)
UKIP: 899 (2%)
Other: 763 (1.7%)
Majority: 6894 (15.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19253 (34.2%)
Labour: 29806 (53%)
Liberal Democrat: 5353 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1487 (2.6%)
Other: 358 (0.6%)
Majority: 10553 (18.8%)
Boundary changes: only minor changes. Loses small parts of Elton to Ellesmere Port and Tattenhall and Waverton to Cheshire. These are all rural parts of larger split wards, and the changes may actually be better for Labour than the raw figures suggest.
Profile: the seat covers Chester itself and surrounding villages. Chester is a historic walled market town in Cheshire. During the industrial revolution Chester became an upmarket residential town for the upper classes fleeing the industiral sprawl of Manchester and Liverpool and like much of Cheshire it is a relatively affluent area. However, Labour support in housing estates like Blacon and Lache make Chester into a marginal seat. Conservative for most of the twentieth century, Chester fell to Labour in the 1997 landslide, unseated the television celebrity Gyles Brandreth.
Current MP: Stephen Mosley (Conservative) Cheshire county councillor since 2005. Chester councillor since 2000. Deputy leader of the Conservative group on Chester city council
Stephen Mosley (Conservative) Cheshire county councillor since 2005. Chester councillor since 2000. Deputy leader of the Conservative group on Chester city council
Christine Russell(Labour) born 1945, Holbeach. Educated at Spalding High School and NW London Polytechnic. Librarian. Former Chester councillor, assistant to Lyndon Harrison MEP and co-ordinator for Mind. First elected as MP for Chester in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Lizzie Jewkes (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Newarke Girls Grammar School and University of East London. Founder of a washable nappy company. Contested Vale of Clwyd 2005, Ellesmere Port and Neston 1992.
Tom Barker (Green) Scientist, providing scientific advice to local, national and international governmental bodies. Contested City of Chester 1992.
Allan Weddell (UKIP) Educated at St Peters, Southbourn. Managing director of a family filing products company. Contested North West Region in 1999 European elections. Contested City of Chester 2001, 2005.
Ed Abrams (English Democrat) Contested Hartlepool by-election 2004, Northwest 2004 European elections, City of Chester 2005, Monmouth 2007 Welsh assembly elections, North West 2009 European elections.
John Whittingham (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88739
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 20.6%
Over 60: 22.7%
Born outside UK: 5.6%
White: 97.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 76.8%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 5.8%
Graduates 16-74: 27.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.4%
Social Housing: 16.7% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 9.6%)
Privately Rented: 9.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.6%
Evidently, everybody was sufficiently satisfied for the result to proceed so that’s the main thing. Does anyone remember the furore about the polls closing with queues outside? That seemed to happen in a lot of seats.
Yes it did and it was an absolute disgrace.
And as much as I felt extremely sorry for all those poor people who couldn’t vote, sadly it’s what-ifs if one starts to surmise ‘what might have happened’ so to speak had so many more people actually voted than in reality.
Predicting results in marginal seats now
is about as hazardous as doing so in December 1981.
or December 1991.
They will go one way, or the other, largely according to how well or otherwise the Conservatives are seen to have got the country on track.
That may well be the case, but a Tory hold here let alone with a doubled majority or something like that come 2015 would be quite astonishing considering the way the polls are currently favouring Labour.
With a double incumbancy bonus this seat could easily be saved, at this stagelabour are slight favourites
They should really be favourites to win this back- Mosley may still increase his vote share however.
I cannot agree more JJB.
The only predictions I’ll make are for seats that are so safe that its obvious which party will win. So I’m going to put my money on Labour holding East Ham and Newcastle Central (might be a push but I’ve got faith in them) and the Tories holding Brentwood and Ongar and Emlbridge…again at a push.
As for Chester…its marginal nature makes it very difficult to decide now what way it will go in 2 years time.
One thing I will say is that the Tories will need to watch out for UKIP in this seat as that may be the decider in whether Chester sends a Labour or Tory to Parliament in 2015.
Richard Lowe , the UKIP candidate, has resigned from the party after the local newspaper printed a letter from him supporting equal marriage.
So ukip are all about getting the state off our backs. I’m probably going to vote tory rather than ukip in the euros now.
I don’t know what is meant by ‘equal marriage’ but it seems an obscure issue on which to base one’s voting choice in a European election
Really, really funny seeing UKIP falling apart like this
It’s like what happened with us when someone would bring up a Conference vote by the youth and students calling for the monarchy to be abolished or something like that.
‘With a double incumbancy bonus this seat could easily be saved, at this stagelabour are slight favourites’
Chester used to be a fairly safe Tory seat, with the party holding it in 1945 and 1966. I guess it’s one of those primarily middle class seats that was receptive to Tony Blair’s New Labour, although Giles Brandeth was quite unpopular as the local MP and I suspect he might have lost it to Labour with or without Blair
I weas surprised by the small majority the Tories won in 2010 – I expected them to win quite big here
Tim: I agree with your characterisation of Chester as a Blairite middle-class kind of seat. I am perhaps more sanguine about the Conservative position here than you are. The Tory vote has recovered in line with the Tory vote nationally since 1997, while Labour’s vote has fallen by slightly more than average. And as others have said, I suspect the boundary changes actually helped Christine Russell here in 2010. I don’t think there will be much in the 2015 result either way, though it remains early days.
It does rather depend what happens to the relatively healthy LibDem vote. I think enough should switch to Labour to see a Labour MP elected next time
The tory vote has probably increased by more than the average once you factor in the unfavourable boundary changes that arent reflected in the notionals.