Christchurch
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27888 (56.44%)
Labour: 4849 (9.81%)
Liberal Democrat: 12478 (25.25%)
UKIP: 4201 (8.5%)
Majority: 15410 (31.19%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 25052 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 10819 (23.7%)
Labour: 7323 (16.1%)
Other: 2372 (5.2%)
Majority: 14234 (31.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 28208 (54.7%)
Labour: 8051 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 12649 (24.5%)
UKIP: 2657 (5.2%)
Majority: 15559 (30.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 27306 (55.1%)
Labour: 7506 (15.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 13762 (27.8%)
UKIP: 993 (2%)
Majority: 13544 (27.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 26095 (46.4%)
Labour: 3884 (6.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 23930 (42.6%)
Referendum: 1684 (3%)
Other: 606 (1.1%)
Majority: 2165 (3.9%)
Boundary changes: Gains parts of Longham, Stapehill and Parley from Dorset North, losing the ward of Verwood Dewlands.
Profile: Christchurch is a seat on the south coast between Bournemouth, with which it forms a conurbation along with Poole, and the New Forest. It is an affluent retirement town – the constituency has the highest proportion of over 60s of any seat in Great Britain. As well as Christchurch itself the seat includes Hurn Forest and Bournemouth International Aiport and, to the north of them, the town of Ferndown and the villages of St IVes and West Moors, site of a military fuel depot.
The seat is normally very safely Conservative. It was briefly held by the Liberal Democrats after their 1993 by-election victory, but afer being relatively narrowly regained by the Tories in 1997 it has returned to form.
Current MP: Christopher Chope(Conservative) born 1947, Putney. Educated at Marlborough and St Andrews University. Barrister. Wandsworth councillor 1974-1983 and Leader of Wandsworth council from 1979-1983. MP for Southampton Itchen from 1983 to 1992, MP for Christchurch since 1997. Minister of State at the Treasury 1985-6, Under Secretary of State in the department of Transport 1986-1990, Minister of State in the Department of Transport 1990-1992. Spokesman on the environment 1997-1998, spokesman on social security 1998-2001, Treasury spokesman 2001-2002, shadow transport minister 2002-2003, shadow minister environment and transport 2003-2005. Awarded the OBE for services to local government in 1982 (more information at They work for you)
Christopher Chope(Conservative) born 1947, Putney. Educated at Marlborough and St Andrews University. Barrister. Wandsworth councillor 1974-1983 and Leader of Wandsworth council from 1979-1983. MP for Southampton Itchen from 1983 to 1992, MP for Christchurch since 1997. Minister of State at the Treasury 1985-6, Under Secretary of State in the department of Transport 1986-1990, Minister of State in the Department of Transport 1990-1992. Spokesman on the environment 1997-1998, spokesman on social security 1998-2001, Treasury spokesman 2001-2002, shadow transport minister 2002-2003, shadow minister environment and transport 2003-2005. Awarded the OBE for services to local government in 1982 (more information at They work for you)
Robert Deeks (Labour) Martyn Hurll (Liberal Democrat) David Williams (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78931
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 16.8%
Over 60: 37.7%
Born outside UK: 4.6%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 80.1%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 16.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.7%
Owner-Occupied: 83.6%
Social Housing: 9.7% (Council: 0.6%, Housing Ass.: 9.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.7%
It was in Bournemouth East & Christchurch from 1950 to 1974.
The cross-county situation you describe (presumably in relation to Christchurch & Lymington) arose because of the delay in implementing the set of boundary changes which should originally have been implemented in 1969 and for which the base year was 1961. These boundaries were therefore based on the counties as they existed at that time when Christchurch and Lymington were both in Hampshire. By the time the new boundaries were implemented in 1974 there had been a major loca government reorganisation and changes to county boundaries including those which moved Christchurch into Dorset. There were therefore numerous constituencies which came into existance in 1974 which crossed county boundaries which had been established in 1973. They were not intended as cross-county constituencies when they were drawn up though.
It was in Bournemouth E & Christchurch
Pete & I clearly posting almost simultaneously
‘It was in Bournemouth East & Christchurch from 1950 to 1974′
which was of course an ‘all-Dorset’ seat, at least given its name
New Forest and Christchurch, and Christchurch and Lymington were obviously cross-county seats (Hampshire and Dorset), unless I have misunderstood Pete’s explanation
I think you have. Bournemouth and Christchurch were in Hampshire until the reorganisation of the counties in 1973, therefore Bournemouth East & Christchurch was an all-Hampshire seat for most of its existance.
New Forest & Christchurch which existed before 1950 was entirely in Hampshire. Christchurch & Lymington was drawn up at a time when it was all in Hampshire however because those boundary changes were delayed it did not come into existance until 1974 by which time Christchurch had been moved into Dorset therefore it was a cross-county seat as were many others in that period until the next set of boundary changes in 1983 brought all the constituency boundaries into line with the new county boundaries.
Cons Hold= 17,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 18200
Con maj 17,000
This will depend if the local LD’s are making any effort to squeeze the labour vote back down again. i suspect not with other seats near by more winnable.
Con maj 13500
In the event of a disappointing result for the Conservatives Christopher Chope could be a key figure. I understand that he is the Chairman of the 92 Group (right wing Tory MPs…apparently with about 60 members from the Commons) and is on the slate for the elections to the ’22 Executive. He might be a man in a grey suit who would go to Cameron on the Monday after the election and demand the heads of Osborne and Hilton.
CON HOLD
Big UKIP vote for a seat with a right wing MP, but it is UKIP territory.
It looks like this seat has been reduced,
but the description says only one area departed – the ward of Verwood Dewlands.
The new areas which came in must be very small.
The Labour and LD votes are almost the same as in the 1980s, with the combined Tory and UKIP vote being about the same as the Conservative vote at that time.
Yes, looks like any lingering effects of the Libs by-election success unwound here quite a while ago. Maybe UKIP do well because people know there’s no chance of getting a Lib MP anyway.
Given that the Lib Dems had built up a sixteen and a half thousand majority on a massive turnout in the by election in ’93, did people expect this to be marginal come ’97 or was felt to be an easy hold?
It was generally expected to be a Tory regain, but only just, IIRC – pretty much what actually happened.
I was surprised to see the UKIP do so well here with around 8% of the vote especially when Christopher Chope shares most of their views. One wonders if whenever Chope retires, the UKIP vote could even double especially if a pro-EU Tory is selected. The same can be said for Bill Cash’s seat in Stone.
It would be interesting to see what would happen in a new Christchurch byelection.
Presumabely Labour would recover much of its natural support but where would disaffected Conservatives and Liberals go?
A byelection in the rural south-west or rural North Yorkshire could be UKIP’s best hope of electing an MP.
The only relatively good piece of news for the Conservatives on the 1997 election show was regaining Christchurch from the LDs. It was a pretty bad result nonetheless to take it back by only 2,000 votes.
It was, IIRC, a spectacularly bad Lib Dem candidate at the following (2001) election that allowed the Tories to recover a considerable part of their earlier losses.
Looks like a classic case of tactical unwind,
in a seat which was of course still rock solid Tory in the dreadful County Council elections of 1993 (50% to 33%).
But given the LDs have continued to challenge in a number of other seats they have lost back to the Tories, and without knowing the candidate, perhaps it was a contributory factor.
I also wish to spare a thought for Christchurch in New Zealand. Such a pleasant, and settled city in nornal circumstances. I do recognise some of the buildings.
tactical and by-election unwind.
Spreadsheet with “home ownership / owned outright” data.
East Dorset is at the top of the list with 47.96%:
ht tp://bit.ly/UWHFlq
‘The only relatively good piece of news for the Conservatives on the 1997 election show was regaining Christchurch from the LDs.’
On 2 May theTories had six seats in Dorset. On May 3 that figure had risen to eight
Surely Dorset must go down as the Tories only success story of 97 – in electoral terms of couyrse as their popular vote decreased in line with most other counties
Christchurch, 1997
Estimate, if no by-election in 1993.
Con 29,500
LD 16,500
Lab 8,200
Referendum: 1,900
Other: 606