Chipping Barnet
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24700 (48.81%)
Labour: 12773 (25.24%)
Liberal Democrat: 10202 (20.16%)
UKIP: 1442 (2.85%)
Green: 1021 (2.02%)
Independent: 470 (0.93%)
Majority: 11927 (23.57%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20509 (45.8%)
Labour: 14953 (33.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7072 (15.8%)
Other: 2274 (5.1%)
Majority: 5556 (12.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19744 (46.6%)
Labour: 13784 (32.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6671 (15.7%)
Green: 1199 (2.8%)
UKIP: 924 (2.2%)
Other: 59 (0.1%)
Majority: 5960 (14.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19702 (46.4%)
Labour: 17001 (40%)
Liberal Democrat: 5753 (13.6%)
Majority: 2701 (6.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21317 (43%)
Labour: 20282 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (12.3%)
Referendum: 1190 (2.4%)
Other: 655 (1.3%)
Majority: 1035 (2.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Theresa Villiers(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Theresa Villiers(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Damien Welfare (Labour) Educated at St Josephs Academy and Cambridge University. Barrister. Former special advisor to Lord Richard. Contested Chipping Barnet 2001, Norfolk North West 2005.Stephen Barber (Liberal Democrat)Kate Tansley (Green)James Fluss (UKIP)Philip Clayton (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 103261
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 19%
Born outside UK: 22.4%
White: 81.5%
Black: 3.6%
Asian: 8.8%
Mixed: 2.7%
Other: 3.4%
Christian: 58.5%
Hindu: 4.6%
Jewish: 7.5%
Muslim: 4.5%
Full time students: 5%
Graduates 16-74: 31.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.4%
Owner-Occupied: 73.8%
Social Housing: 12.3% (Council: 8.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.3%
Congrats to Labour
Is Coleman a cabinet member in Barnet?
This is a very bad result indeed but is a by-election and in a ward Labour have topped the poll in before (1998). I take nothing away fromt he achievement, but I do think it highly unlikely that Labour can win a majority in Barnet in 2014, even though ward boundaries are more favourable to them now than then (due to the creation of an extra ward in Coppetts which is Labour leaning)
I think he was until this May but the wretched parking scheme is still in place. But there is more to it that is even worse
Not all Tory voters in London oppose a sensible and realistic approach towards parking and making roads safer.
Here in Bromley, the local council refuses ever to use speed humps or traffic calming, with the effect that the roads here in Beckenham are dangerous racetracks.
There is always an assumption that the views of White Van Man predominate in the electorate in such Tory areas, but I think it is changing.
I am a car driver and a Tory voter, but do not like the roads being so dangerous for me or my wife to cross with our baby son. I’m sure a large part of the Tories’ elderly vote also has this view.
Of course a lot of Labour councils such as Lewisham and Islington have gone completely to the other extreme and put bumps all over the place. But we need to find a balance.
Wandsworth recently spent money on building out pavement ends to create chicanes in a road which already had cushion humps so that traffic was slowed. Brighton and Hove were very anti-car before the Greens when the Tories were in control.
What you say about Wandsworth doesn’t surprise me. They have clearly always had to take a more balanced and innovative approach to things than in those outer boroughs like Barnet and Bromley where the Tory vote used to be weighed rather than counted.
Race tracks in side roads is something that worries me too – and I’m a Tory from outer London.
I witness it daily each evening, and wonder how clever some of these characters would feel if it was their child or wife or parents, or an animal, knocked down.
The Barnet scheme was to do with parking, not traffic calming though, and flawed in a number of important respects.
It was nothing to do with speed humps/limits as Joe says & was to do purely with parking. I parked opposite the Chipping Barnet CLP HQ, looked for the machine & there wasn’t one. Tried to use my mobile, and the routing simply didn’t work properly. It was very annoying but I hadn’t realised it would be as much of an issue as it turned out to be. I don’t know whether it was an issue in the E.Finchley by-election.
But maybe the comparative states of party organization had something to do with it too. I asked the local organizer how come Labour had only been a fraction behind the Tories in the ward in the GLA election, and was told that the latter had neglected the ward. (While Coleman’s unpopularity is evident, it itself can’t be the only reason – it didn’t stop the Tories from outpolling Labour handily in 4 other wards in the constituency, including E.Barnet which has been won by Labour in the past.) Indeed, while we had many decent-sized teams of knockers-up, we saw a lonely & rather forlorn Tory lady knocking up apparently almost every house in one of their normally strongest areas. She must have been knocking on many doors where they didn’t have promised voters, which puzzled us. Even if our organization was better than that of the Tories, we still didn’t do anything like a full canvass apparently, so it’s very likely that if we had done the majority would have been a little greater still.
Yes I know this particular by-election was to do with parking and not road humps etc.
My point was in the context of Barnet Conservatives’ well-publicised cast-iron policy of refusing to calm traffic, and indeed ripping out speed humps installed when Labour and the Lib Dems ran the council. Bromley Conservatives are not so outspoken but have basically the same approach.
Initially these policies proved to be very popular but there is a clear downside manifesting itself, with higher accidents, poorer driving and (as Joe says) residential sidestreets becoming race tracks. Combined with fewer traffic police and the switching off of speed cameras the problem is getting much worse.
For example, an elderly neighbour of mine was killed last year by a speeding car mounting the pavement just outside her house. By the luck of fate that could have been me, my wife or my son.
I may have misunderestimated you, HH, as George W. Bush might have said. Your point is a very good one & isn’t irrelevant to the by-election or the area where it took place.
It wouldn’t be a good idea for Labour to portray itself, in general, as the friend of the car-driver & the Tories as the enemy. On the specific question of the car parking machines however they were justified in criticizing the Tories & it is a ghastly error for the latter party to allow itself to be outflanked on that particular wing by Labour. As Shaun has said, there’s still time for them to get things together. If they don’t they could lose control. In general I agree with those who say that a Tory loss of control is not that likely, but if Labour’s national lead extends any further (it was 14% in the YouGov poll last night, not for the first time) and other things don’t change locally it is capable of happening. An outright win by Labour would be a total disaster for the Tories, and I don’t expect it to happen, but the Tories can’t simply assume it won’t. They will have to do better than they have been doing.
I also agree that Barnet is unlikely to be gained by Labour in 2014. However, I do think that the Tories could lose overall control and Labour might end up the largest party on the council. They would have to make a fair few gains to pull that off though. Redbridge, Croydon and Merton are all better prospects as far as future London gains for Labour.
Has Brunswick Park ever voted Labour before btw? If not, then that this makes a spectacular result even more so.
Pete says it has done in 1998 but it’s still a very good result for Labour
and a sorry lesson for the Tories – a combination of local factors and overall swing.
In 1998 yes they topped the poll but won only one of the three seats. Andrew Dismore also carried the ward in the constituency vote of the GLA election a amonth ago but that was obviously a bit special (he even carried High Barnet for goodness sake)
Well that really would be testimony to the unpopularity of Coleman wouldn’t it. Although Dismore is well-known & I suspect not disliked in much of the borough, this was never his patch & it would be a case of Coleman de-carrying those wards than Dismore carrying them.
It isn’t easy to assume that the LDs will hold on to Childs Hill. Probably both the Tories & Labour will seriously try there & of course if they do lose it outright to either or both parties there can’t be a hung council. For Labour even winning the split wards (including Brunswick Park) outright wouldn’t be enough to make it a hung council unless other seats are won. Probably if the Tories hold Hale that would pretty much ensure they hold on though Labour were fairly close behind in one seat there in 2010. Even if Labour won all the split wards & partially in Hale the Tories could hang on by gaining one seat or more in Childs Hill (which they won last month). It’s a tall order to deprive the Tories of control and losing overall control would be disastrous; a Labour majority would be cataclysmic. I now think that Labour will find it easier to win Redbridge & Croydon than Merton; I can see Labour winning 30 seats with relative ease in the latter but 31 won’t be easy.
I agree with everything you have said there Barnaby. Croydon as always will come down basiocally to Whaddon and the omens from the results thisw May are good for Labour. I gather there is a specific issue regarding an incinerator affecting that ward which always proves poisonous for incumbent parties. I take it as read that Labour will gain the other seat in New addington so theyw ould only need to win two of the three in Whaddon.
Merton is certainly a tougher job and because of the bifurcated nature of the borough there are few marginal wards – similar to Croydon in this respect, but the apparent permanence of the Residents in Merton Park has precluded a Conservative majority for a long time now. In addition to taking the remaining two seats in Abbey, Labour’s best chances would be in Canon Hill and Lower Morden (on paper Trinity might be a better chance but I think demographics are moving against them here). Neither of these are easy wards for them to win but favourable national conditions could help easily deliver one of the six seats available.
As for Redbridge the writing is clearly on the wall. A Labour majority seems inevitable and it could actually be a pretty big one
In fact if you look at the 2010 results in Merton Trinity is already harder than either of the other 2. Cannon Hill is a longshot, Lower Morden perhaps a bit less so. Labour may well be able to gain one seat in those 2 wards (I’d be very surprised if it were possible in Trinity) but it wouldn’t be a great shock if the Tories held all 6
Croydon will be a Labour gain in 2014. As Pete says, they shouldn’t have much difficulty winning back Waddon and New Addington, which will give them a relatively slim overall majority.
I don’t think Labour will gain any other seats in Croydon though.
One of the surprising things about the Mayoral election was that two Tory Croydon wards around the centre of the town – Fairfield and I think Croham – actually saw a swing to Boris compared with 2008. I think new higher-end apartment developments being built close to town to attract London commuters might be starting to reverse the long-term Tory vote slide in those wards, and remove them from the Labour target list.
Clearly Merton is seeing a pro-Labour trend in the Mitcham end of the borough but if anything the Tories are strengthening in much of Wimbledon. Continued stalemate there has to be more likely than a Labour majority unless Labour have a really good night.
As Pete says, Redbridge should be an easy Labour gain.
I agree also that it would be quite hard for the Tories to lose Barnet. If they are smart, they will deselect Brian Coleman and others from his unpopular regime and wipe the slate clean with a new team.
Redbridge I fear could be worse than in 1994 and 1998 – Tories down to about 12-15 seats.
Unless the Government is recovering well by then.
Re Croydon I don’t think Labour has ever been near winning Fairfield in a local election, not in my memory anyway. Although it swung to Boris, the Tories only won it rather narrowly in the GLA list vote. I do agree that Labour won’t gain any seats in the borough apart from Waddon & the one not already held in New Addington. Re Redbridge, the Tories look certain to hold Fullwell, Fairlop, Bridge and Monkhams, and it would be surprising if they failed at least to keep at least some presence in Barkingside & Snaresbrook, and probably Wanstead too, though I’d be surprised if there were a Tory outright hold in the latter in particular. So I’d have thought that the Tories will hold more than 15 seats in the borough, though maybe not that much more. I suspect the LDs will hold Church End; Roding could be very interesting though clearly Labour don’t need to win there to take control anyway. Labour aren’t guaranteed to win outright in Hainault either though I suspect we probably will. Re Merton I agree with HH & Pete.
Actually I’m too pessimistic earlier re Tories in Redbridge.
I think Hainault is one of their better prospects.
There’s quite a range of possibilities in the Borough.
Labour probably need to take only 1 seat in Hainault to take control and it would only take a very small swing to do that. Nevertheless it is likely to swing to Labour less than some other wards and that would most likely go for Fairlop too. I still think on balance it would be an outright Labour gain but like you Joe I wouldn’t be certain about it. I don’t think any of the split wards will retain any Conservative (or LD) councillors. There is some evidence that white working-class voters in parts of the South including some London districts have swung back to Labour in quite large numbers just in the last couple of months, but of course that would have to be sustained which is not in any sense a given. We certainly felt that was happening in Brunswick Park on Thursday; the Labour gain definitely wasn’t down just to Greek Cypriots voting for a Cypriot Labour candidate or a large increase in the non-white vote, which remains a pretty small minority in that area, but was helped by a pretty solid lead in the social housing developments which are predominantly white still though with a few black & Asian residents.
Very late in the day and at Pete’s prompting I had a look at the results in the GLA constituency (you mentioned that Dismore beat Coleman even in High Barnet ward). I now see that the same was true in the following wards which are generally regarded as hopeless for Labour: Golders Green, Edgware, Mill Hill, Hendon. And in these wards where Labour has at best an outside chance: E Barnet, Hale, Childs Hill. This means that Coleman lost every ward in Hendon and only two in Chipping Barnet (Oakleigh & Totteridge) as well as Finchley Church End & Garden Suburb. Since Coleman was able to beat Dismore in all 4 wards in Camden where the Tories beat Labour in the list vote (the 4 wards which have Tory councillors, Hampstead Town, Belsize, Frognal/Fitzjohns & Swiss Cottage) it’s abundantly clear that Coleman has a serious image problem in Barnet much more than in Camden. I think Andrew Dismore is quite popular in the Jewish community although he himself isn’t Jewish (he does however have relatives who are) and Coleman wasn’t able to poll well in some of the wards which have the largest Jewish population as the results in Edgware, Hale, Golders Green, Hendon & Mill Hill show.
I meant of course that Coleman WON only 2 wards in Chipping Barnet & Finchley/Golders Green.
Yes indeed I noted elsewhere that Coleman actually slightly outperformed the party list vote in Camden and his bad performance was entirely down to a dismal performance in Barnet. In some of those wards like Edgware and Golders Green Boris beat Ken Livingtone by around 70% to 20% yet Andrew Dismore carried those. There are other factors besides Coleman of course. IN Edgware Dismore must have some residual personal vote while Livingstone obviously underperformed in these wards because of his alienation of Jewish voters, but it is a striking example of split ticket voting
Unfortunately I agree with Barnaby, Pete and Joe about Redbridge in 2014 . Labour have claimed the whole of the south of the borough so their chances will depend on how well they do north of the A12. I think Wanstead and Snaresbrook would be a tall order. Bridge, Fulwell, Fairlop, Monkhams and Hainault will stay Tory. I think Barkingside will remain Tory while Alborough and Clayhall to close to call (I would imagine split wards). It will be intresting to see how well the Lib Dems do in Roding and Church End, and whether they can get back in Chadwell.
Overall I think the Tory position here will be heavily influenced by the national picture….and being London, demographic change.
You say you agree with me but you have made some predictions which, I can honestly say, look a bit too optimistic from a Conservative point of view. I really don’t think the Tories are very likely to win any seats in Clayhall despite its long Tory history and I think Aldborough is pretty unlikely too (it’s just conceivable that the Tories could hold one seat there). The only way your predictions are likely to be borne out is if the Tories are doing considerably better nationally than they are at the moment. I accept that Hainault is likely to swing to Labour less than some wards but in the event that Labour has anything like a handy national lead it must fall, and I see a considerable kinship between Clayhall & Barkingside and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Labour take at least one seat there too. But above all the LDs surely haven’t a cat in hell’s chance of regaining Chadwell now. I agree that Wanstead is far from easy but I suspect it is likely to be split. Snaresbrook is somewhat harder & I think the Tories will most likely just hold on. I know you live in this part of London but I would be surprised if you’re right & I’m wrong on this particular subject. I will perhaps stick my neck out & predict the council seat by seat nearer the time; at the moment I reckon something like Lab 39 Con 18 LD 6 but I find Roding particularly hard to predict at 2 years’ range; anything could happen there. I do think the LDs ought to be able to hold Church End.
Apologies for still being on the Chipping Barnet thread – the original discussion about the Labour by-election gain has turned first more general, then specific about other boroughs.
Barnaby.
I’ve replied on the Ilford North thread instead.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Brunswick Park: 63.2% / 48.1%
Coppetts: 58.6% / 44.9%
East Barnet: 75.1% / 61.3%
High Barnet: 80.0% / 68.5%
Oakleigh: 70.4% / 56.0%
Totteridge: 62.4% / 48.5%
Underhill: 74.7% / 61.0%
TOTAL: 69.2% / 55.3%
White overall, Chipping Barnet:
2001: 81.5%
2011: 71.8%
Census results, Jewish, 2001 / 2011:
Brunswick Park: 6.6% / 4.7%
Coppetts: 5.0% / 4.0%
East Barnet: 5.2% / 5.3%
High Barnet: 6.7% / 6.5%
Oakleigh: 9.5% / 8.8%
Totteridge: 16.7% / 16.2%
Underhill: 2.9% / 3.1%
TOTAL:
2001: 7,695 / 103,258 = 7.5%
2011: 7,623 / 111,973 = 6.8%
Noticed that Barnet uses an Enfield postcode. Bit odd. Thought it would still have been N something.
Barnet was historically in Hertfordshire, unlike the rest of the present-day borough of Barnet which was in Middlesex. That would clearly have something to do with that.