Comments on: Chippenham

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 18:01:13 +0000

‘Can’t see that the Conservatives would have any objection here. Nor can I really see any sensible alternatives.’

Yes indeed, although I see Hames implied on twitter that the two Corsham town wards should be moved back in to the successor constituency of Trowbridge.

I checked the ward electorates here and a few logical ward switches can be done within quota, such as swapping Box and Colerne for the two Corsham town wards and moving Ethandune to Warminster and Shaftesbury (plus moving The Lavingtons ward from W&S to Devizes and Lyneham from Devizes to the new N Wilts/Chippenham).

By: John Chanin

John Chanin — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 08:01:05 +0000

This is really just a return to pre-2010 arrangements, except for the required cross-border seat with Dorset which has knock-on effects in the south of Wiltshire.

Can’t see that the Conservatives would have any objection here. Nor can I really see any sensible alternatives.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 22:16:34 +0000

The BCE has gone for some radical changes here putting Chippenham town back in with N Wilts (renamed ‘Chippenham’) and putting the rest of this constituency in with a new ‘Trowbridge’ const.

‘Chippenham’ has a notional tory majority of about 5300 and ‘Trowbridge’ a tory majority of roughly 1000.

It may well be the case that the tories and LDs unite against these proposals though although the rest SW Wilts will have to be linked with part of N Dorset anyway to make the numbers add up.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 09:42:38 +0000

I think it’ll be very interesting to see whether Labour does add on figures like +10% or more in seats where they have become so heavily squeezed by 2010.

I do suspect the main driver in all this will be how people view the government overall after 5 years.

If the government has done well, then even some anti Con (LD/Lab tactical voters) may be won across anyway.

If it hasn’t done well, and all the anti votes go to Labour, then both the other two parties will be in trouble.

Too early to say.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 08:46:24 +0000

I agree and the natural Labour vote is not insignificant here. You can see how much it was squeezed down from the 2005 notional result and even in 2005 there will have been many Labour supporters voting tactically LD as they did for a long time in both WIltshire North and Westbury. There are several pockets of Labour support in Chippenham itself and especially in Melksham. I had speculated previously that this is a seat Labour would have been likely to win in the period 1945-51 and probably in the 1960s if the 1962 by-election hadn’t brought about this large transfer of support from Labour to the Liberals in Chippenham. I think it’s reasonable to expect Labour’s share to return at least to the 2005 level and for that increase to come almost exclusively at LD expense. That would be enough on it’s own to produce a Conservative gain. It is possible however that there will be some transfer from Conservative to LD and Duncan Hames will likely enjoy some incumbency boost.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 07:25:36 +0000

the answer is likely to be yes, at least to some extent. spme Labour voters will think, why should I give my vote to an anti-Labour party, even if Labour has no chance, as here.

By: John D

John D — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 02:42:41 +0000

WEJ has now launched a clothing range! He seems to be doing alright for himself.
In contrast to Barnaby, my mother seems to buy Black Farmer bacon over other types all the time now she knows he’s a Tory…

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lib Dems held on next time, but there are instances, from 2001, 2005 and 2010, of Lib Dem first-time incumbents (and long-time incumbents) losing their seats.

Of course, there’s the rather novel issue of the two competing parties having been in the same government. It’ll be interesting to see what that does to seats like this. Are any of the ‘squeezed’ Labour voters going to refuse to vote Lib Dem, even though it might let the dreaded Tories in?

By: Christian

Christian — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 22:17:00 +0000

Even if the Lib Dems are slaughtered at the next Election, I have a feeling they will hold on here.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 15:21:37 +0000

Having said that, I’m rather less likely to buy his tasty sausages for the knowledge he wants to be a Tory MP. There are plenty of other good sausages too! It all goes to show that there are risks in going into politics. Certainly I never let party politics intrude into my business when I was a shopkeeper.

By: Sir Norfolk Passmore

Sir Norfolk Passmore — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 15:05:02 +0000

They probably should have expressed thanks to defeated candidates, yes.

I have no doubt WEJ put in a shift but wasn’t unusual amongst failed (and successful) candidates in that regard. But it isn’t entirely about the hours on the clock – you have to inspire your troops to put in the hours too, direct your energies efficiently and ultimately convince the electorate.

To be honest, I don’t reserve special sympathy for WEJ above any other unsuccessful candidate. At least his campaign garnered a lot of column inches for his (very tasty) sausages, so he’ll have made up on the swings some of what he lost on the roundabouts.