Chippenham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21500 (41.04%)
Labour: 3620 (6.91%)
Liberal Democrat: 23970 (45.76%)
BNP: 641 (1.22%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.4%)
Green: 446 (0.85%)
English Democrat: 307 (0.59%)
Christian: 118 (0.23%)
Majority: 2470 (4.72%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18977 (41.1%)
Conservative: 17717 (38.4%)
Labour: 7768 (16.8%)
Other: 1677 (3.6%)
Majority: 1260 (2.7%)
New seat: : a new seat made up of parts of a new seat made up of parts of Wiltshire North, Devizes and the former Westbury (now Wiltshire South West)
Profile: A Wiltshire seat based around the rapidly growing market town of Chippenham itself, and Bradford on Avon and Melksham to the South. Compared to the larger Conservative seats that dominate Wiltshire, Chippenham is tightly drawn around the more Liberal Democrat voting towns.
Current MP: Duncan Hames (Liberal Democrat) born 1977, Hertfordshire. Educated at Watford Boy`s Grammar School and Oxford University. Runs a consultancy business. West Wiltshire councillor 2003-2007. Contested Westbury 2005, Watford 2001.
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones (Conservative) born Jamacia. Former BBC producer on cookery programmes, before starting his own food marketing business. Also runs a Devon farm, whose produce he markets under the brand “The Black Farmer”
Greg Lovell (Labour) Online retailer and non-practicising solicitor.Duncan Hames (Liberal Democrat) born 1977, Hertfordshire. Educated at Watford Boy`s Grammar School and Oxford University. Runs a consultancy business. West Wiltshire councillor 2003-2007. Contested Westbury 2005, Watford 2001.
Samantha Fletcher (Green)
Julia Reid (UKIP) Born London. Educated at John Bentley School and Bath University. Research biochemist. Former member of the SDP. Contested South West region in 2009 European elections.
Michael Simpkins (BNP) taxi driver and former RAF police officer. Jon Maguire (English Democrat)Richard Sexton (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87967
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 23.7%
Over 60: 21.4%
Born outside UK: 5.3%
White: 98%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 74.5%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 21%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23%
Owner-Occupied: 77.5%
Social Housing: 13.7% (Council: 1.6%, Housing Ass.: 12%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
I counted votes at Chippenham in 1983 when Richard Needham increased the Conservative majority. Chippenham is also the place where Eddie Cochrane joined the choir invisible. His car hit a lamppost.
Yes, and Richard Needham strongly supported putting up a monument to him.
Joshua says ‘I think marginals like this will be the most exciting part of the election for me!’
But Chippenham has elected Conservative MPs since 1924, so how can it be a marginal even under current national circumstances?
Harry, I gather they’ve changed the boundaries to form this new seat which now includes Bradford on Avon which has historically been a strong Lib Dem area. It looks like the local Conservative association has a fight on its hands.
It’s not so much the inclusion of Bradford-on-Avon, which is essentially a marginal town, which makes this an LD prospect; rather, it’s the EXCLUSION of Wootton Bassett and many square miles of solidly Tory countryside, which will stay in N Wiltshire and thus stay Tory. Should be close here.
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
Cons Gain= 500 maj
Well, if the number of posters up is an indication of support the L-Ds have this one in the bag.
Driving through Melksham and Bradford today, and Corsham yesterday, L-D posters outnumber Con by about 30 to 1.
As a semi local person I’d be pleased to see a change.
Its good to know my team are winning the poster war.. esp this ealy, not seen any posters yet, not even looked for any!
Hmmm…very difficult one this.
? CON 1000
I’m a local Moonraker born in Bradford-on-Avon – won’t be voting though as there’s no local candidate in with a chance.
The Tory in this seat is a Jamaican who was brought up in Birmingham and farms in Devon while the LIb-Dem boy comes from Watford. I’ve met him once – didn’t impress at all as anyone who has done anything useful in his life so far.
Shame really.
Libdems to consolidate here in the face of weak opponents
Con Gain
Maj 1300
Con maj 1,000
It’s true the Lib Dem people seem to have more posters up in the area. But then, they always do around here – but their guy still always seems to come second!
Still, it’s gonna be a very tight result this time. I really hope the Conservatives can pull it off – they’ve got a great candidate with some real star quality. (The LD guy is just some boring accountant, I believe…)
The betting has moved solidly in favour of a Lib Dem victory since the last time I checked it, the result of the ‘surge’ I guess.
Ladbrokes now Have th Lib-Dems at 1/2 in Chippenham.
Always difficult to predict a new seat but I think it should be a LD win. Labour vote to reduce or squeeze.
I have to be non-partisan, since I don’t belong to any party should be easy right! Well not so. One candidate got me really riled up, and after talking to others, anyone who has met him has felt similarly that he is not interested in the constituency members, therefore I am thinking that his support must be ebbing away.
Therefore I believe that we will end up with a Lib Dem result here with a 4000 – 5000 majority.
Yellow Peril are throwing the kitchen sink at this seat. 2K “gain”. Why the hell didn’t WEJ stand in Totnes?
Conservative majority 211
originally I thought that Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones would take this one – now I predict LD HOLD
Yes i’m going for a narrow LD win here now
And throwing the kitchen sink worked:
Duncan Hames Liberal Democrat 23,970 45.8 +3.3
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones Conservative 21,500 41.0 +3.3
Greg Lovell Labour 3,620 6.9 -9.9
Julia Reid UK Independence Party 1,783 3.4 +0.3
Michael Simpkins British National Party 641 1.2 +1.2
Samantha Fletcher Green 446 0.9 +0.9
John Maguire English Democrats 307 0.6 +0.6
Richard Sexton Christian Party 118 0.2 +0.2
Majority 2,470 4.7
Turnout 52,385 72.7 +5.8
One thing I’ve always wondered is why if WEJ is a Devon farmer he was standing in a Wiltshire constituency and in a somewhat urban one at that?
“Online retailer and non-practicising solicitor.”
A curious job description – does he sell things on ebay?
WEJ was just featured on Channel 4′s docu ‘Cameron’s Black Farmer’ It struck me how elections were so new to him, but perhaps that’s why he lost as well as the collapse in the Labour vote and the BNP and UKIP vote.
It’s a shame he didn’t win… I think, having seen the programme, that he could be a good MP.
I can’t believe he wasn’t contacted by Tory HQ after the Election especially after all his hard work!!!
There has been LD strength in this area for some time, even in 1979.
The 1992 result obscured it.
It probably wasn’t as easy as it looked – the Tories should have another go.
WEJ’s article in the Guardian last week suggests he is one (of many?) candidates who have been soundly and roundly dumped by Conservative HQ.
Now that the Tories have achieved their aim of getting back into office, I’m not surprised that the failed A-list candidates have been disgarded by Tory HQ. So much for ‘Modern Conservatism’ which Cameron constantly talked about as Leader of the Opposition.
Isn’t the clue there in the word “failed”?
WEJ didn’t do appallingly but it was a highly winnable seat and he didn’t win. His opponent seems to have been well organised but perhaps not a giant figure – he had stood in part of the seat before (Westbury pre-boundary changes) but would not have had a meaningful incumbency advantage.
Realistically, all parties have to take a view about which candidates have and have not done enough to fight another day and sometimes have to be a bit brutal about it. As I say, WEJ wasn’t a disaster and may be a borderline case. But he did, after all, lose with a small swing against him.
To be honest, I wish my own party would be a bit less forgiving of fairly weak candidates.
”Isn’t the clue there in the word “failed”?
Realistically, all parties have to take a view about which candidates have and have not done enough to fight another day and sometimes have to be a bit brutal about it. ”
Sir Norfolk Passmore – Yes, all parties need to take a view about which candidates have and have not done enough to fight another day but the least they can do is thank the failed candidates for their time and dedication to the party even a quick e-mail thanking them would be sufficient .
WEJ has been treated very badly by Tory HQ considering how much time and effort he dedicated to fighting this seat and I’m saying this as a Labour supporter who usually wouldn’t give any Tory candidate the time of day!!!
They probably should have expressed thanks to defeated candidates, yes.
I have no doubt WEJ put in a shift but wasn’t unusual amongst failed (and successful) candidates in that regard. But it isn’t entirely about the hours on the clock – you have to inspire your troops to put in the hours too, direct your energies efficiently and ultimately convince the electorate.
To be honest, I don’t reserve special sympathy for WEJ above any other unsuccessful candidate. At least his campaign garnered a lot of column inches for his (very tasty) sausages, so he’ll have made up on the swings some of what he lost on the roundabouts.
Having said that, I’m rather less likely to buy his tasty sausages for the knowledge he wants to be a Tory MP. There are plenty of other good sausages too! It all goes to show that there are risks in going into politics. Certainly I never let party politics intrude into my business when I was a shopkeeper.
Even if the Lib Dems are slaughtered at the next Election, I have a feeling they will hold on here.
WEJ has now launched a clothing range! He seems to be doing alright for himself.
In contrast to Barnaby, my mother seems to buy Black Farmer bacon over other types all the time now she knows he’s a Tory…
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lib Dems held on next time, but there are instances, from 2001, 2005 and 2010, of Lib Dem first-time incumbents (and long-time incumbents) losing their seats.
Of course, there’s the rather novel issue of the two competing parties having been in the same government. It’ll be interesting to see what that does to seats like this. Are any of the ‘squeezed’ Labour voters going to refuse to vote Lib Dem, even though it might let the dreaded Tories in?
the answer is likely to be yes, at least to some extent. spme Labour voters will think, why should I give my vote to an anti-Labour party, even if Labour has no chance, as here.
I agree and the natural Labour vote is not insignificant here. You can see how much it was squeezed down from the 2005 notional result and even in 2005 there will have been many Labour supporters voting tactically LD as they did for a long time in both WIltshire North and Westbury. There are several pockets of Labour support in Chippenham itself and especially in Melksham. I had speculated previously that this is a seat Labour would have been likely to win in the period 1945-51 and probably in the 1960s if the 1962 by-election hadn’t brought about this large transfer of support from Labour to the Liberals in Chippenham. I think it’s reasonable to expect Labour’s share to return at least to the 2005 level and for that increase to come almost exclusively at LD expense. That would be enough on it’s own to produce a Conservative gain. It is possible however that there will be some transfer from Conservative to LD and Duncan Hames will likely enjoy some incumbency boost.
I think it’ll be very interesting to see whether Labour does add on figures like +10% or more in seats where they have become so heavily squeezed by 2010.
I do suspect the main driver in all this will be how people view the government overall after 5 years.
If the government has done well, then even some anti Con (LD/Lab tactical voters) may be won across anyway.
If it hasn’t done well, and all the anti votes go to Labour, then both the other two parties will be in trouble.
Too early to say.
The BCE has gone for some radical changes here putting Chippenham town back in with N Wilts (renamed ‘Chippenham’) and putting the rest of this constituency in with a new ‘Trowbridge’ const.
‘Chippenham’ has a notional tory majority of about 5300 and ‘Trowbridge’ a tory majority of roughly 1000.
It may well be the case that the tories and LDs unite against these proposals though although the rest SW Wilts will have to be linked with part of N Dorset anyway to make the numbers add up.
This is really just a return to pre-2010 arrangements, except for the required cross-border seat with Dorset which has knock-on effects in the south of Wiltshire.
Can’t see that the Conservatives would have any objection here. Nor can I really see any sensible alternatives.
‘Can’t see that the Conservatives would have any objection here. Nor can I really see any sensible alternatives.’
Yes indeed, although I see Hames implied on twitter that the two Corsham town wards should be moved back in to the successor constituency of Trowbridge.
I checked the ward electorates here and a few logical ward switches can be done within quota, such as swapping Box and Colerne for the two Corsham town wards and moving Ethandune to Warminster and Shaftesbury (plus moving The Lavingtons ward from W&S to Devizes and Lyneham from Devizes to the new N Wilts/Chippenham).