Chichester
2010 Results:
Conservative: 31427 (55.34%)
Labour: 5937 (10.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 15550 (27.38%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.82%)
Majority: 15877 (27.96%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 24552 (47.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14261 (27.7%)
Labour: 9584 (18.6%)
Other: 2999 (5.8%)
Majority: 10290 (20%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25302 (48.3%)
Labour: 9632 (18.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (27.6%)
UKIP: 3025 (5.8%)
Majority: 10860 (20.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23320 (47.1%)
Labour: 10627 (21.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11965 (24.2%)
UKIP: 2308 (4.7%)
Green: 1292 (2.6%)
Majority: 11355 (22.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25895 (46.4%)
Labour: 9605 (17.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 16161 (29%)
Referendum: 3318 (5.9%)
Other: 800 (1.4%)
Majority: 9734 (17.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Andrew Tyrie(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Tyrie(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Simon Holland (Labour) Martin Lury (Liberal Democrat) Andrew Moncrieff (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97326
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 19.9%
Over 60: 29.1%
Born outside UK: 6.3%
White: 98.3%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 4%
Graduates 16-74: 23.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.9%
Owner-Occupied: 71.1%
Social Housing: 14.7% (Council: 6.9%, Housing Ass.: 7.8%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.3%
Although this is a strong Tory seat, their vote does seem to have fallen much more than average here, by about 15% since when they were in government.
Also, the Labour vote was pretty respectable here in 1997 and 2001, although they fell back in 2005 to just under 19%.
Labour were once quite active and well-organised in Chichester, I understand, leaving a residual vote that appears at parliamentary level.
Labour did better in chichester in 05 than in 97. not many seats where that was true.
Labour’s vote is still quite high considering that the party has only won 1 seat in the history of the District Council, Selsey South in 1995. I’m rather surprised that the Tories aren’t even further ahead, though they usually lose the Chichester city wards themselves to the LDs.
The Conservatives gained seats off the LDs in the May 2007 local elections, and are pretty secure.
Pretty secure is an example of English understatement, Joe.
Anthony Nelson was elected in October 1974 at the age of 26 and then stood down in 1997 at 48. He could probably have clocked up 50 years as MP for Chichester if he’d wanted to.
Although his defection to Labour would have made it difficult to be M.P. for Chichester for fifty years.
I didn’t know he had defected to Labour. I see the BBC News website had a report on it just before the 2001 election. Maybe that explains why Labour got one of its best results ever in Chichester in 2001 just after he defected. I wonder if he’s considering switching back to the Conservatives now that the party has got its act together.
The only possible interest I can think of here, bar another MP defecting or doing something else spectacular, is how UKIP might do. I notice they saved their deposit last time. In a number of South Eastern constituency areas, UKIP got more votes in the European elections than Labour. Whilst one in general expects UKIP to get many fewer votes in a General Election than a European Election, is there any chance that UKIP could take third place in this seat, presumably ahead of Labour?
if nothing else, there is an opposition vacuum here in which a party like UKIP could put down a marker ready for the easily imaginable scenario when the going gets tough for a future Tory government.
The Greens did not stand last time, but a 2.6% vote in 2001 could just about translate into a saved deposit in current circumstances if they had a serious go at this seat. This is the sort of seat which will have environmental concerns, but where the Greens appear to be jeopardising their chances by swerving hard to the left.
If some sort of moderate right Christian Democrat party became a serious player in English politics, this could be one of their top prospects.
Much as I am opposed to postal votes on demand, I am inclined to think that a stereotypical voter here might be advised to get his or her (probably Tory) vote sent in and go back to enjoying the yacht.
Will the new university in Chichester have any impact on its demographics and voting behaviour, presumably by making it comparatively less rock solid Tory?
Cons Hold= 13,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 15100
Con maj 12,000
Con maj 11000
CON HOLD
Has the Portfield area been in this seat since 1885, and which ward is it in? (There is none named Portfield)
When I enter the postcode for Hollycombe and Liphook into writetothem.com, it says they are in this seat! That can’t be right? I’d say they are really in Meon Valley! Isn’t this seat on the border with Hants?
Liphook is definitely in Hampshire but I thought it was in E Hampshire after the boundary revision – before it was in NE Hampshire.
Definitely Hampshire, as Barnaby says.
But on the border of Surrey, Sussex and Hampshire.
In the 1990s, it was in a ward called Bramshott, or part of it was.
Andrew Tyrie is the new chairman of the Treasury Select Committee.
Slightly unexpected as Michael Fallon was considered the favourite to succeed John McFall.
Quite a good Tory result here, compared with disappointing ones in other Sussex seats.
‘Quite a good Tory result here, compared with disappointing ones in other Sussex seats.’
Not this part of Sussex
The Tories hold all the seats in West Sussex – some feat considering the ugliness of some of the coastal towns – Shoreham, Worthing, Littlehampton, I could go on
They even won in working class Crawley, with its huge population of ethnic minority voters
Of course you’d expect seats like this one, Horsham & Arundel & South Downs – to return Tories to Parliament with healthy majorities – but not the other places I mentioned – which look more suited to Tyneside or Teeside than Sussex
The Tories should be delighted that they can still win in these seats – despite the demographic changes which should work against them
West Sussex wasn’t, on the whole, too bad.
Chichester, Arundel and South Downs, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton and both Worthing seats were all alright, but Horsham and Mid Sussex were a bit disappointing.
East Sussex was definitely more disappointing than West Sussex:
Obviously there’s Eastbourne (though that was expected)
The Bexhill and Battle result was poor
The Hastings swing was a bit sluggish
The Hove gain wasn’t very convincing
Standing still in Brighton Pavilion…
Wealden was alright though
Are Bexhill, Mid Sussex and Horsham feeling the ripples from Brighton, Lewes and Eastbourne?
‘Are Bexhill, Mid Sussex and Horsham feeling the ripples from Brighton, Lewes and Eastbourne?’
Mid-Sussex no ,onger returns Tories to Parliament with the five figure majorities it once did – but i think this is more to do with a strong local Lib Dem pressence and a non-existant Labour vote
The two largest towns – East Grinstead and Haywards heath – are a bit hit and miss but generally it’s no less affluent than other Sussex seats away from the cost so I don;’t think it’s down to changing demographics
Horsham has always been a very strong Conservative seats – producing one of the party’s best results in 1997 and 2001. I’ve no idea why they have fallen back here. Perhaps the Lib Dems had an unusually good candidate or viters don’t consider Francais Maude a particularly good constituency MP but I’m just guessing
Bexhill & Battle is different and i’m convinced it has everything to do with their MP, who shortly after the 2005 election left his wife and children for a man.
In today’s world of swinging and bi-sexual MPs you msy well say ‘so what’ but Bexhill and Battle has one of the highest proportion of elderly voters in the country and I imagine some of them would have found themselves unable to endorse their MP
This was after all the Tories stringest seat in the whole country in 1987 and in that context, the 2010 result was little short of pathetic
Still though they won Hastings – a town which really has no right to elect a Tory MP
Er..yes. That’s why I said Sussex to include both counties.
Wasn’t most of the town of Crowley part of the Horsham seat prior to 1997? If so, that could explain why the torries did so well there in 1997 and 2001 if so may working class voters were moved to a new seat.
There was a seat called Crawley & Horsham – reprersented by right winger Peter Hornden – but this only existed from 1974 to 1983 – when Crawley got a seat of its own
This was redrawn in 1997 when it lost some of its rural and Tory-voting areas to Horsham and Mid-Sussex
In horsham’s case though this was counter balanced by it losing some very Tory small towns and villages to the newly created seat if Arundel & south Downs
Hastings still has a Labour council, but its Rye hinterlands gave the parliamentary seat – just – to the Tories
However, until 1997 it was thought of as a safe Tory seat.
The question that interests me Mike is how the Tories were able to hold onto Hastings for so long in the first place as its steep decline started quite a while before 1997
I remember going there in 1988 and it was pretty shocking!
Perhaps Hastings like other seaside towns held on to its traditional Tory vote while its economic prosperity declined .
This may have been due to fewer older people leaving the area whilst retaining their traditional Tory allegiance and more older people(disproportionately pro Conservative) people retiring to the seaside and dying there.
Goodness what a morbid comment!!
morbid perhaps but i think that analysis has some merit
hastings certainly isn’t the sort of place you would imagine would have a tory mp – but as tim jones points out – neither are worthing, shoreham, littlehampton, and you could add to that portsmouth, gosport, plymouth and away from the coast swindon, crawley, bedford, reading, stevenage and harlow to that
the tories have always overperformed in the south of england – but i found their results in the last election in the aforementioned places quite frankly astonishing
perhaps the southern working class white man really is way to the right of his middle class counterparts
It will be interesting to see if the Labour vote recovers to a more respectable level here.
Excellent speech today by Lord Young of Graffham (Graffham in this seat).
He has a role advising the government, and
had a whole raft of proposals to scrap a lot of health and safety legislation, and taking away lots of work from no win no fee lawyers who can cripple small firms.
Good to hear this is a long term appointment to see the changes through.
Maybe not surprisingly Lord Young isn’t quite my favourite political figure, but it’s hard not to agree with him about InjuryCharlatans4U & such adverts.
Lord Young appeared in the BBC election studio at the start of the 1987 programme.
Only a week after being central to the ‘wobbly Thursday’ blazing row with Norman Tebbit which rocked the Conservatives’ election campaign that year.
Cllr Weekes has resigned from the Tories to sit as an Independent.
Lib Dem County Cllr Brian Hall has defected to Ind, to form an Ind group, in fact.