Chesterfield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7214 (15.74%)
Labour: 17891 (39.03%)
Liberal Democrat: 17342 (37.83%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.12%)
Green: 600 (1.31%)
English Democrat: 1213 (2.65%)
Independent: 147 (0.32%)
Majority: 549 (1.2%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 21035 (46.6%)
Labour: 18462 (40.9%)
Conservative: 3784 (8.4%)
Other: 1838 (4.1%)
Majority: 2573 (5.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3605 (8.2%)
Labour: 17830 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 20875 (47.3%)
UKIP: 997 (2.3%)
Other: 814 (1.8%)
Majority: 3045 (6.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3613 (8.1%)
Labour: 18663 (42%)
Liberal Democrat: 21249 (47.8%)
Other: 916 (2.1%)
Majority: 2586 (5.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4752 (9.2%)
Labour: 26105 (50.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20330 (39.6%)
Other: 202 (0.4%)
Majority: 5775 (11.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Toby Perkins (Labour) born 1970. Educated at Silverdale Comprehensive School. Former sales rep and recruitment manager. A qualified rugby coach, he now runs a rugby merchandising and equipment company. Chesterfield councillor.
Carolyn Abbott (Conservative) Contested Sheffield Heeley 2001, Barnsley East and Mexborough 2005.Toby Perkins (Labour) born 1970. Educated at Silverdale Comprehensive School. Former sales rep and recruitment manager. A qualified rugby coach, he now runs a rugby merchandising and equipment company. Chesterfield councillor.
Paul Holmes(Liberal Democrat) born 1957. Educated at Firth park Secondary and York University. Former teacher. Chesterfield councillor 1987-1995, 1999-2003. MP for Chesterfield since 2001. Work and pensions spokesman 2002-2005, chair of Lib Dem Parliamentary party 2005-2006, arts of culture spokesman 2006-2007, housing spokesman until December 2007 (more information at They work for you)Duncan Kerr (Green) David Phillips (UKIP)Ian Jerram (English Democrat)
John Daramy (Independent) Born London. Self employed businessman.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88747
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 22.9%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 98.1%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.9%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 14.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.2%
Owner-Occupied: 66.6%
Social Housing: 25.9% (Council: 23.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.2%
Working on basis of adding the votes together of all the candidates of a party and then dividing by number of candidates, I have worked out swing figures for the election this year.
In order of largest swing to smallest:
Holmebrook 29.51%
St Helens 26.41%
Hollingwood & Inkersall 25.24%
Moor 21.50%
Loundsley Green 21.34%
Dunston 17.51%
West 16.52%
Rother 16.41%
Old Whittington 16.29%
Lowgates & Woodthorpe 15.79%
Brimington North15.33%
Brockwell15.15%
Barrow Hill & NW 14.28%
Brimington South 14.12%
Walton 14.04%
Hasland 13.03%
St Leonards 12.28%
Linacre -3.36%
Average 15.09%
I didn’t hear the exact result from the safest Labour ward Middlecroft & Poolsbrook and can’t find it online so haven’t added that to the list.
In answer to Ricjard’s question, it is hard to know what Tories voters will amke of it all, I would guess they might be quite happy with the sell out, I think the Lib Dems main losses have been from Lib Dems not ex Tories to be honest.
This was borne out by the Tory failure to make an impression in Walton and West where far from taking the seat they fell to third place behind Labour in both cases.
The Lib Dem Staveley Town Council (prev 9LD, 8 Lab) is now Lab 17 LD0 !! And the remaining two LD councillors on Brimington Parish Council have gone that is now Lab 10, LD 0.
The next electoral test is scheduled to be in the Derbyshire County Council elections in 2013 when the Lib Dems will be defending five seats in Chesterfield (we hold four).
Congratulations on these results. I also thought it likely that Labour would retake this council, but it did require some very big swings and some of those are amazing.
This is a safe Labour seat now obviously
I had miscalculated the Linacre swing (thought it looked way out of line) although it was still the smallest on the day, the swing from LD to Labour was in Linacre was 3.83% making the overall average LD to LAB swing 15.28%.
Pleasing for us to note that the swings were biggest where they needed to be biggest so a pretty satisfactory campaign all round.
Congrats Toby.
It occurs to me that without byelections the LibDems would hold fewer seats than they do now.
If MPs were replaced by appointment (at least until the next May election) then the LibDems might never have won:
Bermondsey
Brecon
Berwick
Portsmouth S
Sutton
and of course the LibDem support here would never have come about without a byelection.
Amazing result. Is this the largest swing against the Lib Dems in the Country?
Thanks ETTG, sorry for tardiness of my reply, haven’t been on for a bit! Anecdotally, I believe that the gain of 23 seats was the biggest anywhere in the country although I know that there were also big gains in Gedling, Ellesmere Port and Telford. Many other authorities had big swings to Labour but elect in thirds so wouldnt have been so many gains.
The swing from LD to Labour of 15.28% is the biggest I am aware of but would be interested to know how it compares with Sheffield particularly, where I understand that the Lib Dems were also surprised by the scale of their defeat.
One for you Statto’s out there- were there any swings bigger than 15.28% or any authorities where Labour made more than 23 gains?
The swing in Sheffield from 2007 was a relatively modest 10.55%
In Manchester it was 15.75% and 13 seats were gained (relative to 2007) which given only a third of seats were up would equate to 39.
The swing in Knowsley was 19.1% and in Liverpool 24.4%
I can easily see a Labour majority here of about 12-14,000 with the Conservatives about 2,000 ahead of the Lib Dems.
“The swing in Sheffield from 2007 was a relatively modest 10.55%
In Manchester it was 15.75% and 13 seats were gained (relative to 2007) which given only a third of seats were up would equate to 39.
The swing in Knowsley was 19.1% and in Liverpool 24.4%”
Which-as with Chesterfield-just reinforces why Labour MPs shouldn’t get too excited by their performance in the local elections. The biggest swings from Labour were generally from the lib Dems in areas where Labour already holds all the constituencies or where they can only make one or two gains overall.
But what happened in the areas that will decide the next general election? A very poor performance I’m afraid. Worse that the Tories did under Hague in the corresponding local elections in 1999.
I just thank goodness that Labour MPs remain happy to keep Ed Miliband in place. Its going to be like the last parliament under Gordon Brown-where it became increasingly clear he was going to lose them the election but Labour allowed him to get on with it.
Will they never learn?
Sorry, reading that back, I meant the biggest swings TO Labour were generally from the Lib Dems.
I know its fairly obvious, but I just thought I’d make thay clear.
While Shaun’s judgement about the outcome of elections is often sound, I think he should be wary of being triumphalist this early in the parliament. At first people didn’t take to David Cameron either but he still became PM. You could be right Shaun, but it’s much too early to be as certain as you are. And complacency doesn’t pay in politics.
You’re right of course. One thing I could never be accused of is complacency-I ALWAYS tend to err on the side of caution, as you know. Things can change.
But neither is there any point in not enjoying the moment we have at the moment-a fairly useless Labour Leader who is not seen as a Prime Ministerial figure, and Tory GAINS at local elections a year into government (something which I still think is almost unprecedented).
Nobody warmed to David Cameron in opposition (in my view mainly because he failed to articulate a unique platform for the party distinct from the ‘left’) but he was almost always ahead in voting intentions by enough to win a general election and people caould imagine him as Prime Minister even if they didn’t like him.
Ed Miliband by contrast is bobbing along with a bare minimum poll lead and is widel;y regarded as someone people can’t see as a Prime Minister. That is still very very important in determining how people will vote come a general election. We Tories know of what we speak-we were refusing to believe similar sorts of reaction to William Hague, IDS and Michael Howard. And Labour rightly laughed all the way to their next election victory.
So now the tables are turned. It is Labour with a failing leader and a party completely unwilling to believe it. Labour MPs and members desperately want to talk up generally poor polling and local election results as evidence that they are on course for power.
Been there, done that. I’m glad that Labour members are happy.
Oh no I’m not talking anything up (though I don’t think you’re specifically referring to me). Labour will clearly have to improve on the 2011 local election results to be on course for power. But there are reasons to believe it’s quite possible that the political situation will get worse for the Tories than it is now, just as it did for Labour during the last parliament; for quite a while it looked likely that Labour would recover enough to stay in power, but it didn’t happen in the end. There’s everything to play for; it’s not a done deal that Ed Miliband will be defeated, or will win.
Been looking at the main party’s counter proposals for the boundaries in this area. The Lib Dems are proposing a Chesterfield seat almost identical to that I outlined on this site some time ago.
Their proposed seat would include the following wards:
From Chesterfield Borough: Brockwell, Dunston, Hasland, Holmebrook, Linacre, Loundsley Green, Moor, Old Whittington, Rother, St Leonards, St Helens, Walton, West and Barrow Hill & New Whittington.
From NE Derbyshire District: Dronfield N, Dronfield S, Dronfield Woodhouse, Unstone, Gosforth Valley, Barlow & Holmesfield and Brampton & Walton.
The only difference between the Lib Dem proposals and mine is that I did not include Old Whittington and Barrow Hill and New Whittington in the Chesterfield seat, instead including Wingerworth.
The justification the Lib Dems give for splitting Chesterfield Borough in this way is identical to the one I gave; that NE Derbyshire is an entirely artificial grouping including disparate communities to the north and south of Chesterfield linked together by a swathe of rural Derbyshire to the west of Chesterfield.
It is not really that surprising that the Lib Dems have proposed boundaries if this kind. I mentioned to Mark Senior ages ago on this thread that my plan was very kind to the Lib Dems. Probably their best chance of drawing up a Derbyshire seat that is winnable from their point of view is to have one linking the western half of Chesterfield with Dronfield, albeit that the seat would in all likelihood be a three way marginal.
The rest of the Lib Dem proposals for Derbyshire are utterly bonkers. Mention has been made on the Derby N thread of their proposal for a redrawn Mid Derbyshire extending to not far from Derby city centre. Further north they propose an “Amber Valley” seat covering a thin strip of territory stretching from Shirebrook down to Ripley & Marehay ward. They also bizarrely propose putting Clay Cross in Derbyshire Dales constituency.