211 Responses to “Cheltenham”

1. Sir Norfolk Passmore

   “how are the demographics bad for the Tories in Cheltenham?”

   They are not bad as such (and of course the Tories remain quite competitive), but have not gone in the right direction for the Tories over the past 25 years or so.

   Newer buildings have been less in keeping with the ultra-posh reputation of Cheltenham (not awful but in line with many similarly sized places). Many larger houses towards the centre have been developed into flats for younger professionals, and rich families have headed out of town.

   The change in Hastings (which Coote also contested) have been more dramatic. It has frankly declined as an area. With Cheltenham, “decline” isn’t the word, but the character of the place has gradually shifted.

   January 26th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
2. Tim Jones

   That’s inetesting to hear Sir Norfolk

   I haven’t been there for some time but whenever i do go there I’m always struck by how generally up-market it seems and hadn’t notice any decline as such

   I think the Lib Dems have done well to hold on here and agree that Martin Horwood comes acrodss as a better MP than his predecessor

   January 26th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
3. richard

   Sir Norfolk

   Perhaps I was a bit unfair on Coote but the fact is 3 reasonable chances to get elected and 3 fails.

   Maybe he has been unlucky in that the seats were harder to win than they looked (and I would agree with you that they were) but luck is part of being a winner.

   And there’s also the possibility that Coote didn’t understand that Hastings and now Cheltenham would be as hard as they were.

   Certainly many Conservatives were expecting to reduce the LibDems to below 40 MPs, which would surely have meant a Conservative gain here, and perhaps Coote was one of them.

   As to Warsi I liked here before she got promoted.

   The problem Cameron has with her (and why promotion on image grounds is so risky) is that she is almost unsackable. This is dangerous in itself but also gives the impression that there are two levels of government minister.

   January 28th, 2011 at 8:56 am
4. richard

   Re the economy the problem that the government has is that they have never developed an economic philosophy – Cameron and Osborne have not moved on from the ‘sharing the proceeds of growth’ strategy and even now their plan involved cuts and tax rises now to be followed by giveaways in 2014-5 as if things are ‘normal’.

   The problems that the UK has are much more fundamental than that. What we need (and what we’ll get whether we like it or not) is a fullscale rebalancing of the econony onto a more sustainable basis. Now Cameron and Osborne will parrot phrases associated with this ‘more exports, less debt’ etc but they do not grasp what the consequences are and that for the majority of people it means falling living standards not just for a year or two but for at least a decade.

   What the government needs to do is explain this and explain also the long term benefits that this will bring.

   Unfortunately Osborne is possibly the least suitable person to do this – chinless wonder, inherited wealth and never having done a ‘proper’ job. His appointments by Cameron remain two of the greatest political blunders of recent times.

   January 28th, 2011 at 9:13 am
5. H.Hemmelig

   A Bulgarian secretary I know from a previous job used to work for the Osborne family as a cleaner when she first came to the UK in the late 1990s.

   She has a very low opinion of them and their abilities, and they were apparently very bad employers. She couldn’t believe it when she realised that George had become Shadow Chancellor and now Chancellor.

   I am therefore inclined to agree with Richard.

   Incidentally I think Phillip Hammond would be a fine chancellor, far better than Osborne.

   January 28th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
6. richard

   I agree about Hammond and think Fallon, Hague or Redwood would have been good as well.

   In fact almost anyone would have been more suitable than Osborne.

   It was completely unnecessary for Osborne to have been appointed Chancellor but Cameron is very loyal to his inner circle. How much of that is due to stubborness and/or insecurity I’m not sure.

   I was very impressed by Cameron’s speech yesturday, that he wasn’t saying those things before is an indication of how much the Cameroons misunderstood the economy. It also showed how strong Cameron is in speechmaking, Osborne would not have looked realistic if he had made that speech.

   I do wonder though if Cameron understands the consequences of what he was saying. In electoral terms alone it means that the Conservatives will have to effectively write off all but a handful of urban target seats and instead concentrate on the M/M areas. In which case they will have to shift resources now in preparation for the next election.

   January 29th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
7. Joe James B

   Entirely agree about Hammond and Fallon.

   Redwood is very knowledgeable – he has some very good ideas, and solutions, because he is prepared to think afresh. But some of his other ideas are not right though, and he would be politically impossible to appoint – he scares people off.

   January 29th, 2011 at 5:25 pm
8. Joe James B

   I think we’d be well advised to listen to what Redwood says about the banks though, as it is key to getting lending going again to small businesses.
   He thinks we’ve violently shoved a slow responding shower the other way, and in danger of breaking it.
   His strength is he’s objective, but he’s not politically that good because he just serves up very harsh solutions raw.

   January 29th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
9. richard

   “he would be politically impossible to appoint – he scares people off.”

   You think that Redwood gives a worse impression than Osborne?!?

   He might give it out harsh and raw but that’s what the country’s going to get whether it likes it or not.

   Cameron could then ‘pretty up’ the message, that’s what he’s good at.

   Although being told some harsh truths would do much of the country some good.

   Osborne on the other hand didn’t get it before, shows no sign of getting it now and is a PR disaster to boot.

   January 29th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
10. Joe James B

    Personally, I prefer to have it raw,
    maybe the thing with Redwood is he looks a bit sinister.
    I don’t think he is though.

    I am somewhat re-assured that this government is very focused on the domestic agenda.

    January 29th, 2011 at 5:47 pm
11. Joe James B

    Bath and Cheltenham were two of the most disappointing Tory results in LD seats.

    There are about 15 seats I think the LDs really shouldn’t have.

    January 29th, 2011 at 6:16 pm

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website

CAPTCHA Code *