Cheltenham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21739 (41.18%)
Labour: 2703 (5.12%)
Liberal Democrat: 26659 (50.5%)
UKIP: 1192 (2.26%)
Monster Raving Loony: 493 (0.93%)
Majority: 4920 (9.32%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18989 (40%)
Conservative: 18474 (38.9%)
Labour: 5320 (11.2%)
Other: 4699 (9.9%)
Majority: 515 (1.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15819 (36.3%)
Labour: 4988 (11.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 18122 (41.5%)
Green: 908 (2.1%)
UKIP: 608 (1.4%)
Other: 3176 (7.3%)
Majority: 2303 (5.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14715 (35.2%)
Labour: 5041 (12%)
Liberal Democrat: 19970 (47.7%)
UKIP: 482 (1.2%)
Green: 735 (1.8%)
Other: 892 (2.1%)
Majority: 5255 (12.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18232 (36.2%)
Labour: 5100 (10.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 24877 (49.5%)
Referendum: 1065 (2.1%)
Other: 1029 (2%)
Majority: 6645 (13.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Martin Horwood(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Mark Coote (Conservative) Educated at Cheltenham Grammar School and Nottingham University. History and Politics teacher. Contested Hastings & Rye in 2001 & 2005.James Green (Labour) Martin Horwood(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Peter Bowman (UKIP)Dancing Ken Hanks (Official Monster Raving Loony) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98733
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 21.8%
Born outside UK: 7.3%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.3%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 71.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.5%
Graduates 16-74: 27.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.1%
Social Housing: 13.9% (Council: 10.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 12.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
Heiman your claims are still inaccurate and partisan and don’t deserve to be here. The point of this website is to make judgements on the results on particular constituencies based on results not on how you personally feel
You fail to spell properly. You fail to manage basic grammar. You seem to know very little about national campaigns and the fact that *all* parties send out literature that does not count as local spend. Nationally Ashcroft is way less than 3% of all donations. Coote locally raised 2,500 from donations in fivers and tenners but Horwood has had little success in this manner interestingly…
I am a Conservative and I admit that. But I am happy to debate with people as to the results locally. You seem to be a Liberal plant to spread innuendo and rumour. That is frankly not what this website is about. If you genuinely think that posters are a good indicator of results (which most suggest they aren;t) or that Ashcroft impacts on the views of voters (which most polls suggest they don’t) or that George Osborne is now George Osbourne then put your argument foward….
If we want to start being deliberately partisan then we can but not on this website. You and your liberal plants should be ashamed.
It was nothing partisan in my last post, and for your info, I sometimes post by phone which makes it difficult to edit.
I asked Craig on how he obtain his figures, while lying out how I feel about people posting without any back up to their claims. There is nothing partisan about this.
On poster – all I am doing is putting forward another way than just looking at the polls nationally. It is true that national polls don’t necessarily work on Lib Dem seats cos of personal votes – nothing partisan about this, just what I have observed.
On Ashcroft, all I have pointed out is that the Conservatives are spending a great deal, I did not say anything about other parties not sending anything out, nor did I say I am not aware of it.
Please donlt let your emtion get the better of you. I can understand how you see I have Lib Dem as my background and easily jump to conclusion. No one is immune
Uh… Batter low, I will post the rest later
10 days ago I would have certainly predicted Con gain.
Now very close. I shall take the status quo of LD hold by 500 but I wouldn’t bet on it!
[...] to have been becoming steadily more yellow inclined over many years – and there has been little meaningful change in the vote share since 1997. Although everyone thinks of Cheltenham as a very wealthy town (which [...]
If you’re Tory you should be getting ever more confident with the marginal Lib Con Polls.I’ve long suspected the LibDems would hold but am not so sure now.One to watch on May 6th.Need people to feel engaged and encouraged to vote for sure.
I’ve so far had 4 pieces of election literature from Libdem, 2 from UKIP, and 1 each Con and Lab. The Libdem is almost entirely negative, slagging off the labour govt and the tory candidate, but offering nothing positive. The Tory one was a bit better, but still mostly slagging off labour. The labour and UKIP ones were good, actually telling you what they would do, rather than slagging off the others. I know one undecided who has been persuaded by the libdem literature to vote tory.
“If you’re Tory you should be getting ever more confident with the marginal Lib Con Polls.I’ve long suspected the LibDems would hold but am not so sure now.One to watch on May 6th.Need people to feel engaged and encouraged to vote for sure.”
I am slightly puzzled here. I was under (perhaps mistaken) impression that the LIB/CON marginals were showing minimal swing/ swing away from the Tories toward the Libs.
I agree this is one to watch and far too close to call.
CON GAIN, 800
LD HOLD
Hvaing been slogging around the seat yesterday with dozens of other Lib Dems I was very surprised at the apparent lack of Conservative activity.
They had less posters up and residents told me they have had loads of literature from the Lib Dems but much less from the Tories, particularly in the last week.
I know that volumes don’t always count but I do think this will be a Lib Dem hold.
One wonders whether there has been some Tory redeployment to Gloucester in recent days, Madmacs. Purely speculative on my part but Gloucester requires a 6.5% swing from Labour putting it close to the cusp of what the Tories need. Alternatively, they may judge Cheltenham as in the bag – though that would surprise me a little.
2010 result:
Martin Horwood Liberal Democrat 26,659 50.5 +11.1
Mark Coote Conservative 21,739 41.2 +2.4
James Green Labour 2,703 5.1 -6.7
Peter Bowman UK Independence Party 1,192 2.3 +1.0
Dancing Ken Hanks Monster Raving Loony Party 493 0.9 -0.2
Why oh why did I ever doubt Martin Horwood?!!!
I honestly thought that this would fall especially after watching some of the swings in T&Y and the rest…but an increased majority and a swing away from the Cons:
Martin Horwood Liberal Democrat 26,659 50.5 +11.1
Mark Coote Conservative 21,739 41.2 +2.4
James Green Labour 2,703 5.1 -6.7
Peter Bowman UK Independence Party 1,192 2.3 +1.0
Dancing Ken Hanks Monster Raving Loony Party 493 0.9 -0.2
Majority 4,920 9.3
Turnout 52,786 66.8 +4.4
Again the labour vote collapsing, a common occurence in the south in seats of this kind.
I think this seat, which is very similar to Bath, has been becoming steadily more yellow in recent years. I think it may be part of a more general upper middle-class move away from the Tories, which would explain Taunton and Solihull – although on that logic the Lib Dems would also have taken Guildford (inheritance tax cuts a factor there perhaps)? The collapsing Labour vote was a factor in the size of the majority, but on these figures Horwood would have held on anyway.
Certainly nobody I know was surprised by the result, although after a grim night for the Lib Dems I suppose it was something to cheer on the morning after.
‘I think this seat, which is very similar to Bath, has been becoming steadily more yellow in recent years. I think it may be part of a more general upper middle-class move away from the Tories, which would explain Taunton and Solihull’
Not sure what’s particularly upper middle class about Taunton but interesting analysis which I partly agree with
Unfortunately it’s marred by some of the Lib Dem losses in 2010 – Winchester, Harrogate & Knaresborough and Richmond Park – which are amongst the most wealthy constituencies in the country and fell to the Tories on quite large swings
Perhaps the most interesting thing about the last election – in light of the inheritance tax cut and all the other Tory promises that would have benefitted the well off – was that the A/B professionals that had deseerted the Tories in the mid-90s seemed the group most reluctant to return to them