Chelmsford
2010 Results:
Conservative: 25207 (46.17%)
Labour: 5980 (10.95%)
Liberal Democrat: 20097 (36.81%)
BNP: 899 (1.65%)
UKIP: 1527 (2.8%)
Green: 476 (0.87%)
English Democrat: 254 (0.47%)
Others: 153 (0.28%)
Majority: 5110 (9.36%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18180 (39%)
Liberal Democrat: 14413 (30.9%)
Labour: 12396 (26.6%)
Other: 1584 (3.4%)
Majority: 3767 (8.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22946 (44.9%)
Labour: 13236 (25.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13326 (26.1%)
UKIP: 1544 (3%)
Majority: 9620 (18.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20446 (42.5%)
Labour: 14185 (29.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11197 (23.3%)
UKIP: 785 (1.6%)
Green: 837 (1.7%)
Other: 693 (1.4%)
Majority: 6261 (13%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23781 (40.6%)
Labour: 15436 (26.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 17090 (29.2%)
Referendum: 1536 (2.6%)
Other: 734 (1.3%)
Majority: 6691 (11.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Simon Burns(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Simon Burns(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Peter Dixon (Labour) Stephen Robinson (Liberal Democrat) born 1966. Regional director of the Royal Institute of British Architects. Former Epping Forest District Councillor, leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Epping Forest council (1993-1996) and Essex County Councillor. Contested West Chelmsford in 2001 & 2005.Angela Thomson (Green)Ken Wedon (UKIP) Contested Chelmsford West 2001, 2005.Michael Bateman (BNP) Claire Breed (English Democrat)Ben Sherman (Reduce Tax on Beer)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96198
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 19%
Born outside UK: 5.9%
White: 96%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.3%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 3.2%
Graduates 16-74: 20.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.5%
Social Housing: 14.9% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.6%)
Privately Rented: 6.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.8%
As the Party Acoounts for 2009 have just been published , it is quite easy to compare the relative strengths of Chelmsford Conservative and LD Constituency Partys
Membership
LD 260 + 37 on 2008
Con 267 – 24 on 2008
Income 2009
LD £ 52,819
Con £ 45,966
Expenditure 2009
LD
Con £ 54,588
Net Current Assets
LD £ 21,164 ( Nil property )
Con £ 76,413 ( £ 47.865 property )
Looks very evenly matched to me .
Ooopps
LD expenditure £ 51,305
“Chelmsford would be an interesting seat under AV. I suspect it would still be a Con hold.”
Almost definitely – under AV it would be under very exceptional circumstances that a candidate polling over 45% under FPTP could be defeated. The LIb Dems here would need to hoover up almost all the second or third preferences and I can’t see that happening from the likes of UKIP or the BNP. Its even doubtful they would get all the Labour second preferences.
A by-election is taking place today in the Chelmsford Central division of Essex CC.
It was a Conservative gain
8% swing since 2009.
Conservative and Labour shares both up 10 points.
Fewer candidates (just 3) than in 2009.
Essex County Council – Chelmsford Central 9th June 2011
Dick Madden Conservative 1496 (43.6%)
Graham Pooley Liberal Democrats 1323 (38.6%)
Russell Kennedy Labour 610 (17.8%)
The Conservatives also seem to have done well here in the local elections last month.
Within this seat’s boundaries I think the Tories gained 8 seats from the Lib Dems, with Labour also gaining 1 seat from the yellows.