Chelmsford
2010 Results:
Conservative: 25207 (46.17%)
Labour: 5980 (10.95%)
Liberal Democrat: 20097 (36.81%)
BNP: 899 (1.65%)
UKIP: 1527 (2.8%)
Green: 476 (0.87%)
English Democrat: 254 (0.47%)
Others: 153 (0.28%)
Majority: 5110 (9.36%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18180 (39%)
Liberal Democrat: 14413 (30.9%)
Labour: 12396 (26.6%)
Other: 1584 (3.4%)
Majority: 3767 (8.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22946 (44.9%)
Labour: 13236 (25.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13326 (26.1%)
UKIP: 1544 (3%)
Majority: 9620 (18.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20446 (42.5%)
Labour: 14185 (29.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11197 (23.3%)
UKIP: 785 (1.6%)
Green: 837 (1.7%)
Other: 693 (1.4%)
Majority: 6261 (13%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23781 (40.6%)
Labour: 15436 (26.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 17090 (29.2%)
Referendum: 1536 (2.6%)
Other: 734 (1.3%)
Majority: 6691 (11.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Simon Burns(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Simon Burns(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Peter Dixon (Labour) Stephen Robinson (Liberal Democrat) born 1966. Regional director of the Royal Institute of British Architects. Former Epping Forest District Councillor, leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Epping Forest council (1993-1996) and Essex County Councillor. Contested West Chelmsford in 2001 & 2005.Angela Thomson (Green)Ken Wedon (UKIP) Contested Chelmsford West 2001, 2005.Michael Bateman (BNP) Claire Breed (English Democrat)Ben Sherman (Reduce Tax on Beer)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96198
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 19%
Born outside UK: 5.9%
White: 96%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.3%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 3.2%
Graduates 16-74: 20.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.5%
Social Housing: 14.9% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.6%)
Privately Rented: 6.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.8%
CON HOLD
The Conservative vote is actually around 11.5% points higher than in 1997,
which means it will be about the same as in 1987 (although not 1992).
It does go to show how much of the LD strength must be concentrated in Chelmsford itself,
as the Tory share will only be abour 3-4 points below what it was in 1992, when the LD challenge fell apart in the inflated seat.
Looking at the local elections you will see that all of the LD strength is in Chelmsford town, and that they significantly outpoll the Tories.
Simon Burns did exceptionally well to win this with a 5000 majority. His reputation as a very good local MP will have helped suppress the Lib Dems this time.
I wonder how the coalition will change elections here.
Whilst at the despatch box (in his capacity as a junior health minister), Simon Burns apparently called the Speaker a “sanctimonious dwarf”.
Obviously very unprofessional, but I have to admit that the corners of my mouth twitched ever so slighlty
It sems inevitable (with these boundaries, and a growing urban area) that Chelmsford will at some point be won by he Lib Dems.
Not the most sensible thing to say.
I don’t see it as inevitable this seat will go Lib Dem.
The Tories seem capable of maintaining a good share,
and the Labour vote must already very depressed from it’s natural state.
I agree if no action is taken in seats where there is a LD threat you end up with Solihull.
This must be one of the most frustrating seats for the LDs, with them getting relatively close to winning it in election after election since the 1970s.
The coalition will prevent this seat and others like it from going Lib Dem, as a slice of the Lib Dem vote will go to Labour, and perhaps some of it will feel it might as well vote Tory.
Chelmsford would be an interesting seat under AV. I suspect it would still be a Con hold.
One of the few increases in the Liberal vote in 1979, along with a number like Richmond, Twickenham, Totnes, and David Steel’s seat.
As Robin Day reminded the former MP on the Friday morning, you nearly lost yourself.
DId Stuart Mole, the former Liberal candidate, join Labour later, or am i imagining it?
The Liberals could only manage 14% in Colchester in 1979 yet today that’s their only seat in Essex.
I think Simon Burns’ unkind remarks were most unfortunate
mr burns proved himself an effective junior minister in he tory governments of the 1980s and 1990s, a very capable mp and has a knowledge of the american political system that puts most of his colleagues to shame
what he mouthed to speaker john bercow was outrageous, as was his childish refusal to shake his hand on the opening of the new parliament, and does nothing but enforce the low regard with which mps are held by the public
as for the seat i don’t see it an inevitable lib dem gain at all. i don’t know how strong the party is at a local level but i wouldn’t fancy their chances of unseating mr burns any time soon
As the Party Acoounts for 2009 have just been published , it is quite easy to compare the relative strengths of Chelmsford Conservative and LD Constituency Partys
Membership
LD 260 + 37 on 2008
Con 267 – 24 on 2008
Income 2009
LD £ 52,819
Con £ 45,966
Expenditure 2009
LD
Con £ 54,588
Net Current Assets
LD £ 21,164 ( Nil property )
Con £ 76,413 ( £ 47.865 property )
Looks very evenly matched to me .
Ooopps
LD expenditure £ 51,305
“Chelmsford would be an interesting seat under AV. I suspect it would still be a Con hold.”
Almost definitely – under AV it would be under very exceptional circumstances that a candidate polling over 45% under FPTP could be defeated. The LIb Dems here would need to hoover up almost all the second or third preferences and I can’t see that happening from the likes of UKIP or the BNP. Its even doubtful they would get all the Labour second preferences.