Comments on: Cheadle

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 18:24:14 +0000

Some of the sneary middle class types might well actually be voting for you.

They just do not like people knocking on their door.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 17:10:36 +0000

Canvassing is not everyone’s cup of tea
but
if you don’t do it another party will anyway.

Very few people are personally hostile though,
whatever they think of the party,
but those that are tend to be
middle class liberal types,
not Labour voters.

I don’t know David Shaw,
just wish to put a bit of balance into these discussions
that default to the Lib Dem line that of course he was a thug.
But if I’m a lone voice being a bit battered for gently pointing that
out ,so be it.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 14:52:31 +0000

It’s hardly shocking news that some people do not respond nicely to having political activists knocking at their door – particularly when those activists are from a party they do not support and indeed may even despise. It’s unfair to judge someone based on their reaction to being rudely interrupted in their home by a political canvassor just as you couldn’t judge their personality based on what they said to a door-to-door double glazing salesman.

Personally I find political canvassing highly irritating, intrusive and a breach of the right to a secret ballot. My own reaction to it could be described as sneary but I would like to think I’m not like that in general as a person.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 12:44:35 +0000

‘I was canvassing in a by-election in Richmond Park
and had a good laugh with a Labour supporting man from Glasgow
who said he’d never vote Tory in a million years
but met a sneary Liberal type in a very smart house.’

For the record Joe I’ve met plenty of sneary Tory and Labour voters up and down the country who live in ‘very smart houses’ – and let’s not get into the type of people who vote for fringe rightist parties like the BNP and English Democrats

I really don’t see the point in your continuous sniping at Lib Dems and the people who vote for them – funnily enough its the tactics your beloved David Shaw adopted in Kingston & Surbiton in 2001 and it didn’t do him much good

By: Tory

Tory — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 19:38:20 +0000

Well Edgbaston would effectively become Harbourne on the new boundaries. On paper, it will be among the Tories’ best prospects in Birmingham but we’ve said that before about Edgbaston!

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 19:30:10 +0000

Champagne types are always the most hostile to the Tories.
I was canvassing in a by-election in Richmond Park
and had a good laugh with a Labour supporting man from Glasgow
who said he’d never vote Tory in a million years
but met a sneary Liberal type in a very smart house.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 19:27:55 +0000

Some of those seats are unlikely (although we await boundary changes).
Some of them are the obvious ones to look for – should they be successful.

It looks like Morley and Outwood and Grimsby have been broken up by the boundary commission and Labour will push up their majorities
although actually
although I’d loved to have seen it,
I think Balls is doing Tories a favour as Shadow Chancellor.

I’ve got a feeling Edgbaston may never be won – even if the boundaries stay the same or Gisela Stuart moves on.

Good Tory prospects like Wakefield may depend on how they react to the aftermath (or near state of) recession.

By: akmd

akmd — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 18:59:03 +0000

Yes, I agree. SW London is the part of the capital that I know the best having lived in the Wandsworth area my whole life although I also have fairly good knowledge of inner SE London due to spending quite a lot of my school years and then time at university in Lewisham while frequently passing through much of Southwark and Lambeth as part of my travel there. I do break this rule sometimes if I see a comment that prompts me to reply hence my presence here.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 18:18:59 +0000

It is a good rule on here – albeit one I don’t always follow myself – only to make predictions about the areas you live in or know very well.

From his list of supposed good Tory prospects it is pretty clear Adam knows little about London.

Kingston & Surbiton is and will remain solid for the Lib Dems. As AKMD explains above, Hampstead & Kilburn on the old boundaries would likely return to being quite safe for Labour in 2015 due to the loss of a large number of champagne socialist votes back from Lib Dem to Labour. On the new boundaries Hampstead is made safer for Labour in any case.

Eltham on the old boundaries is not a realistic prospect for the Tories to win unless they win nationally in some kind of landslide. The demographics of Eltham have shifted very strongly against the Tories in recent years and will likely continue to do so. However on the new boundaries Eltham will include part of Bexley which will make it a reasonably good Tory prospect.

On the old boundaries Westminster North, Hammersmith and Tooting would all have been better prospects for the Tories than Eltham. However the Westminster North seat is to be abolished, and Tooting merged with Streatham, ruining those two prospects.

Carshalton & Wallington would be a long shot under old boundaries but easily winnable under new boundaries bringing in parts of Croydon.

I agree Sutton & Cheam is a good Tory prospect under both old and new boundaries.

By: akmd

akmd — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 15:56:26 +0000

A number of seats on that list are good Conservative targets but quite a few are not. Hampstead & Kilburn will become much better for Labour if the boundary changes go through and there’s bound to be a significant amount of LD voters going over to Labour in places like West Hampstead. Gedling saw a massive swing to Labour in May and the area seems to be trending in their favour as is Birmingham Edgbaston. Cambridge certainly won’t see another Tory MP anytime soon. They were very lucky to just about manage 2nd place last year and I can see them fall back to 3rd as Labour recover strongly at the expense of the LDs. Eltham, Kingston and Surbiton, Torbay and Blackpool South have all become less reliable for the Conservatives and I can’t see that trend reversing.