Chatham and Aylesford
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18405 (46.8%)
Conservative: 13605 (34.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5510 (14%)
Other: 1778 (4.5%)
Majority: 4800 (12.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16055 (38.2%)
Labour: 18387 (43.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5744 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.9%)
Other: 668 (1.6%)
Majority: 2332 (5.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14840 (37.3%)
Labour: 19180 (48.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4705 (11.8%)
UKIP: 1010 (2.5%)
Majority: 4340 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18401 (37.4%)
Labour: 21191 (43.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7389 (15%)
Referendum: 1538 (3.1%)
Other: 642 (1.3%)
Majority: 2790 (5.7%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Jonathan Shaw (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Tracey Crouch (Conservative) Educated at the University of Hull. Former researcher to Michael Howard and Chief of Staff to David Davis. Currently Senior Political advisor at Norwich Union.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91528
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 26.4%
Over 60: 15.7%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 95.6%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 2.4%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 72.4%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.9%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 11%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.5%
Social Housing: 16.1% (Council: 2.3%, Housing Ass.: 13.8%)
Privately Rented: 7.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.8%
Indeed, Joe, I would expect Essex to be one of the last places where Labour would be likely to do better than expected. Nor do I think that the Tories would lose Guildford or gain Edinburgh N & Leith.
I don’t think the Tories will take Ealing North or Waveney, although if they do as well as in 1979 I suppose they could be outlyers.
If they are successful I’d expect a smaller majority - more like 1992.
I think Labour will probably hold Dover, and Chatham, also Thurrock - although it could go the other way
if the majority (if they get one) is above 20-30.
Joe is much closer to the mark I believe.
For the record, I don’t think it’s some foregone that the Conservatives will win - but is most likely in my view.
If the recession is mild - and is seen to be - then things could be different - but recession indicators tend to lag, and one of the things that struck me about post 1992 was how pissed off people were until about 1996.
I think the Tories will gain Harlow but not Thurrock, South Basildon and East Thurrock will be knifeedge. If Labour do hold a seat in Kent it would be Chatham and Alyesford.
More likely to hold Dover that Chatham - these days Chatham lacks the solid dock vote of days past whereas Dover retains that unionised work force in and around the docks and ferry terminals (not to mention a bit of the old Kent coalfield which remains reliably Labour).
Agree with JJB about Thurrock - think Labour will hold on there (just).
My predictions are kind of strange to most people I am showing what area’s I think the votes are going to be volatile. Ealing North is one example whoever wins the wards in that area normally wins control of the council. The wards are always swinging between Con and Lab in that area and Greenford is a typical bellwether area in a local election.