Chatham and Aylesford
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18405 (46.8%)
Conservative: 13605 (34.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5510 (14%)
Other: 1778 (4.5%)
Majority: 4800 (12.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16055 (38.2%)
Labour: 18387 (43.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5744 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.9%)
Other: 668 (1.6%)
Majority: 2332 (5.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14840 (37.3%)
Labour: 19180 (48.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4705 (11.8%)
UKIP: 1010 (2.5%)
Majority: 4340 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18401 (37.4%)
Labour: 21191 (43.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7389 (15%)
Referendum: 1538 (3.1%)
Other: 642 (1.3%)
Majority: 2790 (5.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Jonathan Shaw(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Tracey Crouch (Conservative) Educated at the University of Hull. Former researcher to Michael Howard and Chief of Staff to David Davis. Currently Senior Political advisor at Norwich Union.Jonathan Shaw(Labour) (more information at They work for you)John McClintock (Liberal Democrat)Steve Newton (UKIP)Sean Varnham (English Democrat) Student, studying law at the University of East London. Contested South East region in 2009 European elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91528
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 26.4%
Over 60: 15.7%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 95.6%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 2.4%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 72.4%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.9%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 11%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.5%
Social Housing: 16.1% (Council: 2.3%, Housing Ass.: 13.8%)
Privately Rented: 7.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.8%
Was Chatham in the Mid Kent constituency 1983-97? I have a feeling it was from reading Andrew Rowe’s maiden speech on the Hansard Millbank site.
Yes. (I’ve found my 1983 copy of Robert Waller’s Almanac of British Politics). Chatham had 40,000 electors at the time according to the book.
The recent by-election for Luton and Wayfield was a very useful indicator of how this seat will go in the next general election.
The safest Labour council seat in the constituency is now conservative (albeit by 4 votes). The Conservative party machine are no fools and threw everything they had into the last week of the campaign. Why? because in one ward, they now have over 1000 people they have now identified as conservative voters. This alone would be enough to take the seat. Repeat this across the other wards in the constituency and you’ve got a massive conservative majority.
Labour seems to be a spent force now throughout Kent. Even in Medway, the home of the super Kent marginals, they are down to just 10 councillors (down from 13 in July). For them to lose their strongest ward is an indication of far they have sunk.
Given Labour and the Conservaties were treating this as a dry run for the General Election (to the extent a Labour minister was out campaigning), it’s not surprising the other parties were squeezed. However, it’s interesting to note that the Liberal Democrat vote was massively up but the big swing to BNP didn’t materialise. The Green vote was just 50.
UKIP would seem to be the big unkown factor in the next election across all seats.
My prediction for Chatham and Aylesford
1. Conservative: 19000 (45.1%)
2. Labour: 13000 (30.8%)
3. Liberal Democrat: 8000 (19%)
4. UKIP: 2088 (4.9%)
42088
Majority: 6000 (14.3%)
Can you give a description of the Luton & Wayfield ward? I’d be interested to hear more about it from someone locally.
It’s been a Labour ward for some 30 years.
It’s one of Kents poorest areas. Luton has a lot of Slovak immigration (especially roma) and the BNP have sought to profit from that. It is predominately let -out terraced housing with a lot of adjacent social housing.
Wayfield is composed of council housing that is mostly owner occupied now.
Past two election results as follows. Locally I think it one of those ‘catalyst’ results in peoples’ minds that if Labour can lose here, then they can’t win anywhere in Medway.
Perhaps its worth pointing out that the reason the by-election was called was because there was allegations of benefit fraud against one of the labour councillors in the ward. The other two resigned over the choice of Labour candidate for the by-election and became independents. The affair cast Labour in a very bad light locally and brought into question the judgement of the local MP by the fact that he had backed the labour candidate. 2 months worth of bad press in the local Medway papers and a crushing defeat is a hard place to bounce back from, especially when your strongest ward has no labour councillors and diminishing numbers of foot soldiers ready to canvass for you.
2007 Election Results
May 3, 2007
Turnout: 30.4%
Candidates Party Votes
Alan Gordon Beavan Conservative 807
Michael Edward Franklin Conservative 782
Tony Goulden * Labour 1519
Val Goulden * Labour 1483
Adrian Victor Henry Gulvin Conservative 696
Dennis John McFarlane Labour 1375
Tom Odley English Democrats 417
Maura Elizabeth Pike Medway Independent Party 359
2003 Election Results
May 1, 2003
Turnout: 24.1%
Candidates Party Votes
Alan Gordon Beavan Conservative 494
Nora Jeanne Beavan Conservative 451
Simon Brown British National Party 344
Herbert John Crack Liberal Democrat 234
William Henry Davis * Labour 1212
Anthony Ronald Goulden * Labour 1173
Valerie Anne Goulden * Labour 1119
Adrian Victor Henry Gulvin Conservative 436
Theresa Veronica Murphy Liberal Democrat 250
Anthony Robert Stoner UK Independence Party 148
Janette Lesley Wastell Liberal Democrat 216
This from Your Medway today:
‘End of the road for Gordon Brown’
Outspoken MEP Daniel Hannan claims the shock Tory victory in the Luton and Wayfield by-election will act as a pre-cursor to the end of the Prime Minister’s time in office – saying “Gordon Brown is finished”.
The Conservative MEP for South East England made the comments following a visit to Medway at the weekend to congratulate newly elected councillor Tashi Bhutia on his by-election success.
Writing in a national newspaper, Mr Hannan paid tribute to Mr Bhutia and predicted a Tory landslide in the forthcoming general election.
He wrote: “The Conservatives of North Kent have achieved something unbelievable; wresting the Luton and Wayfield ward from Labour for the first time in 40 years.
“The winning Tory candidate is the most likeable, hard-working and modest of men, a former Gurkha soldier called Tashi Bhutia.
“Luton and Wayfield was perhaps the safest Labour seat in non-metropolitan England.
“But its residents had had enough. They felt angry, ignored, over-taxed, ripped-off, lied-to, and they knew exactly whom to blame.”
In his Daily Telegraph blog, Mr Hannan added: “I wish I had the vocabulary to describe the magnitude of this defeat. If Labour can’t hold Luton and Wayfield, not a single Labour constituency can be considered safe. Gordon Brown is finished.”
Medway Council’s deputy leader Alan Jarrett agreed with Mr Hannan, saying: “This result demonstrates that the electorate are fed up with Labour and that the British public don’t trust Labour to run the country, the council or even Labour’s safest seat in Medway.
“Labour has not only lost this by-election, but two other councillors and are clearly now even losing their hard core supporters.
“I fully expect a Conservative MP to be elected in Chatham and Aylesford as part of a Conservative Government.”
Medway’s Labour Party hit back at Mr Hannan, calling on the MEP to apologise for branding the NHS a “60 year mistake” and citing opinionated “Rivers of Blood” MP Enoch Powell as among his main influences.
Labour Councillor for Chatham Vince Maple said: “Daniel Hannan is without doubt the most contemptuous representatives Medway has ever had.
“On the one hand the Tories try to paint themselves as compassionate Conservatives, while in reality they attack the NHS and praise Enoch Powell.
“When another Tory candidate praised Powell in 2007, David Cameron criticised him and he was forced to resign.
“The question now for Cameron is whether he will take a similar approach with his MEP who is clearly becoming more and more of a liability.”
Cllr Teresa Murray added: “When I carried out a survey about the NHS last year, I received a massive response with an incredible 100% positive rating, proving that Medway’s residents really do value their local health services.
“I am therefore concerned that Mr Hannan’s best friend, Councillor Mark Reckless, will not join me in criticising Dan Hannan’s scandalous comments about the NHS.”
Thanks for this. Interesting local news.
I truly appreciate all the local news from this seat.
Despite the boundary changes definitely favouring Labour, I am predicting Con gain here.
Looks like it yes.
….though not 100% sure……. could be very close.
Now that the polls are swinging back to Labour, this does indeed look very marginal. A few months ago Labour appeared to have little hope in (historic) Kent: but now they could save this seat and possibly Dover. More reports please of what is happening on the ground.
Good point Frederic – except for the Harris poll, all the POLLS in the last week have shown an UNS low enough for Labour to save both these/those seats.
Remind me, someone, who used to say POLLS again……..
John McClintock is the new Lib Dem candidate here