Comments on: Ceredigion

By: Dalek

Dalek — Tue, 10 May 2011 16:23:22 +0000

2015

Brecknockshire & Monmouthshire North – Con Hold
Ceredigion & Pembroke North – PC Gain from Lib Dem
Montgomery & Radnorshire – Con Gain from Lib Dem

By: Andrea

Andrea — Tue, 10 May 2011 16:21:05 +0000

“Any thoughts on what happened in Montgomery?”

This was the AM for Montgomeryshire
http:// ww.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11969705

He didn’t stand for re-election but I doubt it helped

By: A Brown

A Brown — Tue, 10 May 2011 15:58:54 +0000

‘The Lib Dems certainly held up much better in Wales than in Scotland. Maybe their vote in Wales is less left-leaning.’

indeed a few months ago I would have expected the opposite.

The only area where the LDs held up in Scotland was in Tweedale (i.e. Peebles, West Linton and Innerleithen) but their vote utterly collapsed in the rest of the Borders.

The lib dems will almost certainly hold two seats in Wales at the next election I’d imagine.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Tue, 10 May 2011 15:51:31 +0000

Also the ‘left’ vote went more to the greens than Labour as they narrowly held their deposit but labour got 9%, unlucky to miss out on third place.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 10 May 2011 15:14:43 +0000

Thanks Pete. Any thoughts on what happened in Montgomery?

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 10 May 2011 15:06:49 +0000

Kirsty Williams who is the LD leader in the Welsh assembly was the AM for Brecon & Radnor and must have had some personla vote. Teh Conservatives carried the seat in the list vote

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 10 May 2011 14:49:39 +0000

The Lib Dems certainly held up much better in Wales than in Scotland. Maybe their vote in Wales is less left-leaning.

Quite a surprise also that the Lib Dems lost Montgomery yet held Brecon & Radnor comfortably. Maybe someone with local knowledge could comment. Are their shifts away from the Lib Dems in Montgomery above and beyond the Lembit Opik factor? The assembly results suggest so. Conversely the Tories look pretty unlikely to ever regain Brecon & Radnor on present boundaries.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Tue, 10 May 2011 12:35:49 +0000

The LD vote held up here. Clearly disaffected Plaid supporters must have moved across to the LDs to offset votes they lost to labour etc.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:52:33 +0000

Welsh Assembly 2011: PC Hold

By: Jack

Jack — Sat, 26 Mar 2011 17:23:11 +0000

@H.Hemmelig, I think that’s being a little flippant about Ceredigion. If the electoral history of the constituency tells us anything it’s that, it doesn’t follow any national trends (ie is a LD/Plaid Marginal) and that it often produces shock results that nobody expected. From Cynog’s win in ’92, to Mark’s win in 05/10.

Based on it’s history and the size of Mark Williams win last time around, I wouldn’t bank on it being an easy Plaid win.

Also, for those who do care about the badger cull, they’ll likely vote solely on that issue, whether they’re for or against it. But for the majority of voters, you’re right it won’t feature. Still cull voters will be a sizeable minority.