Ceredigion
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4421 (11.56%)
Labour: 2210 (5.78%)
Liberal Democrat: 19139 (50.03%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.27%)
UKIP: 977 (2.55%)
Green: 696 (1.82%)
Majority: 8324 (21.76%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 13093 (36.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 12840 (36%)
Labour: 4316 (12.1%)
Conservative: 4312 (12.1%)
Other: 1107 (3.1%)
Majority: 252 (0.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4455 (12.4%)
Labour: 4337 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 13130 (36.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 12911 (35.9%)
Green: 846 (2.4%)
Other: 268 (0.7%)
Majority: 219 (0.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6730 (19.4%)
Labour: 5338 (15.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9297 (26.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 13241 (38.3%)
Majority: 3944 (11.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5983 (14.9%)
Labour: 9767 (24.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6616 (16.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 16728 (41.6%)
Referendum: 1092 (2.7%)
Majority: 6961 (17.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Mark Williams(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Luke Evetts (Conservative)Richard Boudier (Labour) Mark Williams(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Penri James (Plaid Cymru) born 1962, Aberystwyth. Educated at Ysgol Gyfun Penweddig and Bangor University. Agricultural lecturer. Dyfed county councillor 1993-1996. Ceredigion county councillor 1995-2008. Leila Kiersch (Green) Educated at Aberystwyth University.Elwyn Willams (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 74941
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 19.3%
Over 60: 24.2%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 70.8%
Full time students: 13.8%
Graduates 16-74: 21.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 9.2%, Housing Ass.: 2.8%)
Privately Rented: 13.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.1%
I think Clegg has actually started to pick up again. He was on fire yesterday in various interviews…problem was that for a week things seemed to have gone awol….
Why does Plaid never get off its arse and givie it some welly…only adam price has come close….god I could even be more passionate
I’m switching from narrow PC gain to narrow LD hold
Daily politics debate on and I’ve only just picked up on the story of the Eastbourne LD member arrested for theft of election signs. Bit of a weak link for you there unfortunately.
Hope Penri gets in – besides him being a good guy, genuine and clever – I have to think of my elderly parents back in Ceredigion and Plaid’s certainly offering the best deal for pensioners. Besides students, coastal Wales also has a higher than average elderly vote both newcomers and long-term residents. Pity we don’t get as much input and insight from them as an identified group on this site. I wonder how that block responds to what’s on offer.
Judging by a conversation with a couple of Plaid activists yesterday and twitter, they think their chances here have drifted. They’ve already set up their blame too, looks like its a mix of the leaders’ debates and the students.
Mind Ceredigion is still far too close for anyone’s comfort and I’d be wary to predict a result.
Throughout this campaign i have seen 3 Plaid activists yesterday, and have received 1 postal leaflet from them. Compared with the Lib Dems utter persistance in the postal leaflets, i believe i received about 4 per week, but a complete lack of doorstep callers. I think if i was a ‘personal’ voter that allowed the best talker my vote i dont think i would be voting at all.
Im annoyed i missed the leader debates for Wales, but there should not have been a reliance on these… whatever happened to the annoying knock on the door and the chance to be swayed by a convincing argument ?
Wow, I hadn’t predicted that one. That was huge.
Any news on whos standing in Ceredigion in the Assembly election?
Will it be Elin for Plaid, what about the Lib Dems? Even with the collapse in their vote in that last ITV Wales poll they must think they are in with a chance?
Elin’s been selected for Plaid, but I don’t think the LibDems have selected a candidate yet…. And Ceredigion doesn’t tend to follow Wales wide results, let alone UK wide, so it could probably go either way. It’s going to be one to watch.
Geraint Howells Esq. sported a dark blue rosette when triumphing here in February 1974.
Traditional Tory colour in this area is red, and traditional Liberal colour is blue.
Have the Lib Dems selected their candidate here yet? If I was them I would have wanted to select my candidate by Late August/ Early September at the latest after the very succesful General Election for them.
Plaid Cymru have already distributed a paper county wide plastered full of Elin Jones.
News in-
Ceredigon Lib Dems will select on the 27th of November.
The two candidates are Cllr. Elizabeth Evans (Aberaeron), and Keith Nevols former LibDem parliamentary candidate in Sittingbourne & Sheppey.
My guess would be Liz Evans as candidate next May.
Very good Lib Dem result here and an appalling one for both the major parties. The Tories actually went down from the 12.4% they polled in 2005 whereas the Labour vote more than halved to below 6% – and i assume a lost deposit
Is there any other constituency in the UK (excluding Ulster of course) where the two main parties fared so poorly?
5% is the threshold for saving a deposit
This was indeed the lowest combined Conservative and Labour share at 17.3%
The next lowest was Orkney & Shetland (21.2%)
The LDs will probably experience a significant drop in their share of the vote at the next election because the Tories are not particularly popular in this area and won’t approve of the coalition.
Be honest, the way Ceredigion bucks national trends & generally tends to vote however the hell it wants pretty much makes any guessing games as to the result fairly pointless.
Also the uniqueness of the seat, a Plaid / LibDem marginal also makes predictions more difficult. But realistically, Plaid may have an easier time of it than they did in the GE, they’ve got the personal vote factor (although that might be undermined because of issues with Glastir & the badger cull) as well as the fact that people are more likely to vote Plaid in Assembly elections.
Logically speaking, given the Welsh & Westminster setting, you’d broadly expect Labour voters to vote tactically for Plaid & Tory voters to vote tactically for the LibDems. But of course, that’s by no means certain. Although what does seem certain is that both sides will take as much as they can from the Tory/Lab vote. They’ll be lucky to keep their deposits this time. Of course, I wouldn’t write off the LibDems, if they pick a good candidate & campaign hard they could still increase their vote, or even possibly win. Basically the end result will be very complex & very unpredictable.
Interesting sidebar, Elin’s majority is almost as large as Simon Thomas’ was in 2001. So essentially, the LibDems just need to pull the same trick off again.
Don’t normally comment on town/parish council elections but some voters clearly still love the LDs who held Aberystwyth Central ward last night with over 90% of the (not very large) vote! The sole opposition came from the Conservatives.
‘Be honest, the way Ceredigion bucks national trends & generally tends to vote however the hell it wants pretty much makes any guessing games as to the result fairly pointless.’
This is certainly one of the harder seats to predict
I remember in 92 Plaid came from 4th to win the seat – and that was against the long-standing and veteran Lib Dem MP Geraint Howells
And once Plaid had won you’d assume they would hold the seat for many years (in this part of Wales) and yet the Lib Dems retook it in 2005
“some voters clearly still love the LDs who held Aberystwyth Central ward last night with over 90% of the (not very large) vote”
I make the turnout at about 9% in that ward, so the electorate weren’t exactly bowled over with enthusiasm. I would imagine with that kind of figure we would be looking at a largely student electorate who would be rather disinclined to turn out for a parish council by-election at the best of times and perhaps even more at the moment when the choice was between two parties in the same government (of which they are not much enamoured)
@Pete
-The town council candidate was also the county councillor for the ward so will have a following from that
- Students moved in towards the end of September and even for thos who filled out the electoral registration form wont be registered until next January. Therefore the majority of the wards residents couldnt vote because they werent on the register.
-As you pointed out with only Government candidates there wasnt much choice
These both come together to cause such a low turnout (To be honest I expected it to be a bit lower)
The Lib Dems also selected their Assembly candidate yesterday, anyone know when the results are due in?
Elizabeth Evans is the candidate for the Lib Dems. The student vote may make a difference in the assembly election – though I get the impression that most students find the NUS pretty irrelevant and will not be swayed into voting against the Lib Dems just on the basis of the Labour campaign, which seems to boil down to trying to win student votes by opposing their own review, which will lead to lower repayments for graduates, after being the party that brought in fees to begin with. It’s all rather mindbending.
I also understand Mark Williams is one of the (probably a majority of) Lib Dem MPs intending to vote against the government and keep the NUS pledge anyway.
You can get that impression if you want Benjamin, but it would a dangerous one to get. The LDs will suffer an enormous drop in their share of the student vote.
Barnaby, you’re presuming that students in Ceredigion actually vote in large numbers. Trust me on this, the student vote isn’t as large a factor as some people believe. It might be sufficient to tip the balance in a very tight election, but that’s pretty much it.
End of the day, unless it gets as tight as it was in 2005, it’ll come down to who wins over voters in Aberystwyth, Cardigan, New Quay, Lampeter and every other place in Ceredigion, not who can attract the tiny number of students who actually bother to vote in Ceredigion.
I agree with John, but the problem for the Lib Dems is not the actual student votes lost, but the damage that is being done to their party image by the perception that they’ve sold out on this issue.
I’m talking about Welsh students in general, not just in this constituency.
As with all issues, it will come down to who can most effectively put across their message. If Labour can rebrand themselves as progressive and/or the champion of students then they will benefit. If the Lib Dems can articulate their ongoing commitment to abolish fees (still the only party to support this UK-wide) and portray the new system as a stopgap compromise, it will be a very different story.
I would certainly reiterate my previous point about student politics. Turnout in student elections is dire, student unions and the NUS are widely seen as ineffectual and irrelevant sandpits for wannabe Labour hacks and their politics and behaviour is not representative of students as a whole.
Exam standards may or may not be dropping but students are not yet so stupid that they have forgotten who introduced fees after promising not to, introduced top-up fees after promising not to, set up the Browne review and were running the country for the last 13 years.
‘If the Lib Dems can articulate their ongoing commitment to abolish fees (still the only party to support this UK-wide) and portray the new system as a stopgap compromise, it will be a very different story.’
Is it an ongoing committment though? I thought the lib dems were divided on this.
Anyway I think PC will hold this with 45-50% of the vote.
In many aspects, the tuition fee issue will be a moot point in Ceredigion, neither party can really push it too hard. Both the LibDems and Plaid are against them and both of them have had to introduce/raise them against a manifesto pledge as a result of a coalition.
In Ceredigion at least, nobody will play the fees card heavily this time, as nobody can really win on it. Unless of course Mark Williams votes against in Parliament, in which case the LibDems probably won’t shut up about it until the next General Election
A year or so back there were some moves to come up with a different policy on student finance. The uproar from all quarters of the party that the review was quietly shut down. Even the change to a gradual abolition over 6 years which we went into the election with in recognition of the recession was quite controversial.
The Lib Dem commitment to abolishing fees is absolute. Unfortunately it’s an area where progress was always going to be slow when whichever party we went into government with was going to want to raise fees when we wanted to get rid of them – the Tory/LD coalition included a negotiated abstention on higher fees, Labour negotiators weren’t even willing to offer that – or any of the other Lib Dem policies that are being enacted.
These Assembly elections could be interesting…if the opposition parties i.e. liberal democrats ..play the badger cull line well (even though most parties support the cull)
Elin and Plaid Cymru could lose their seat here in the assembly, could be something to watch. Rumours are lib dems did much better than expected here back in may due to the threat of the badger cull.
I think the cull card may perhaps be overstated, whilst for those it’s an issue for, it’ll decide their vote, that won’t be an enormous number in the constituency…. Will certainly make hustings interesting though!
Nobody is going to lose their seat because of a badger cull. The electorate have more important things to think about right now.
This will be an easy PC hold, assisted by the sharp drop in Lib Dem popularity and the yes vote in the assembly powers referendum.
@H.Hemmelig, I think that’s being a little flippant about Ceredigion. If the electoral history of the constituency tells us anything it’s that, it doesn’t follow any national trends (ie is a LD/Plaid Marginal) and that it often produces shock results that nobody expected. From Cynog’s win in ’92, to Mark’s win in 05/10.
Based on it’s history and the size of Mark Williams win last time around, I wouldn’t bank on it being an easy Plaid win.
Also, for those who do care about the badger cull, they’ll likely vote solely on that issue, whether they’re for or against it. But for the majority of voters, you’re right it won’t feature. Still cull voters will be a sizeable minority.
Welsh Assembly 2011: PC Hold
The LD vote held up here. Clearly disaffected Plaid supporters must have moved across to the LDs to offset votes they lost to labour etc.
The Lib Dems certainly held up much better in Wales than in Scotland. Maybe their vote in Wales is less left-leaning.
Quite a surprise also that the Lib Dems lost Montgomery yet held Brecon & Radnor comfortably. Maybe someone with local knowledge could comment. Are their shifts away from the Lib Dems in Montgomery above and beyond the Lembit Opik factor? The assembly results suggest so. Conversely the Tories look pretty unlikely to ever regain Brecon & Radnor on present boundaries.
Kirsty Williams who is the LD leader in the Welsh assembly was the AM for Brecon & Radnor and must have had some personla vote. Teh Conservatives carried the seat in the list vote
Thanks Pete. Any thoughts on what happened in Montgomery?
Also the ‘left’ vote went more to the greens than Labour as they narrowly held their deposit but labour got 9%, unlucky to miss out on third place.
‘The Lib Dems certainly held up much better in Wales than in Scotland. Maybe their vote in Wales is less left-leaning.’
indeed a few months ago I would have expected the opposite.
The only area where the LDs held up in Scotland was in Tweedale (i.e. Peebles, West Linton and Innerleithen) but their vote utterly collapsed in the rest of the Borders.
The lib dems will almost certainly hold two seats in Wales at the next election I’d imagine.
“Any thoughts on what happened in Montgomery?”
This was the AM for Montgomeryshire
http:// ww.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11969705
He didn’t stand for re-election but I doubt it helped
2015
Brecknockshire & Monmouthshire North – Con Hold
Ceredigion & Pembroke North – PC Gain from Lib Dem
Montgomery & Radnorshire – Con Gain from Lib Dem
Tory AM for Mid West Wales til 2007, Lisa Francis has resigned from the Party, citing poor management by the professional (paid) Party and lack of communcication with members.
Possible result in 2015-
Williams (Lib Dem)- 16, 648 (42.4%) (-7.63%)
Plaid Cymru- 13, 095 (33.3%) (+5.03%)
Labour- 4, 235 (10.7%) (+4.92%)
Tory- 4, 126 (10.5%) (-1.06%)
Others- 1, 139 (2.9%) (-1.47%)
Turnout- 39, 243.
Majority for Mark Williams of 3, 553 (9.0%)
Swing- +6.33% from Lib Dem to Plaid Cymru,
Yes, that looks likely/credible although the Greens might fancy their chances of holding their deposit.
Was there any particular reason why Geraint Howells lost Ceredigion and Pembroke North so heavily to Cynog Dafis of Plaid Cymru in 1992, because it was a rather unexpected result?
This is Mark Williams’ remarkable electoral record-
2000 by-election- 5, 768 (23,0%, +6.5%)
2001- 9, 297 (26.9%, +10.4%, against 1997)
2005- 13, 160 (36.53%, +9.66%)
2010- 19, 139 (50.0%, +13.5%)
With figures like that, it’s pretty clear that it is solid groundwork that got Mr. Williams to Westminster over these past 12 years. And with an impressive record like that, he must rival perhaps only Norman Lamb in proudly being able to say he is a Liberal Democrat who has increased his party’s share of the vote consecutively every time he has stood.