Comments on: Castle Point

By: John Chanin

John Chanin — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 17:56:17 +0000

Nothing I like better than a challenge. Although boundary changes make direct comparison difficult, the lowest Labour vote in 2010 in a seat that they won in 1997 is Norfolk North West with 13.3%, as stated by Stephen Botfield.

You can also add Wyre Forest (14.3%) to the list, although like Castle Point this is affected by a strong independent vote. Camborne & Redruth also had a lower vote than St Albans, although boundary changes played a part here. Romford is the only other one below 20% (excluding Braintree which is really a new seat).

In Welwyn Labour managed a relatively respectable 21.4%, better than Hemel Hempstead

By: Stephen Botfield

Stephen Botfield — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 16:34:17 +0000

“Labour’s derisory 14% of the poll must be their worst result of the last election given that they won the seat in 97″

“Welwyn Hatfield and St Albans might rival it – although both seats did stick with their Labour MP’s a term longer”

We can also add their lamentable result at Norfolk NW at the last GE to that list.

By: LBernard

LBernard — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 16:26:51 +0000

Possibly as a way to keep the Tories out although there was never going to be enough of them to allow this to happen.
Another point here is that the Labour voters that are here are not of the liberal (Islington) type but fit into the ex eastender old Labour category rather than Blair/Brown Labour. A decline in Labour votes here may also be due to many of these types passing away.

By: John Chanin

John Chanin — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 10:00:41 +0000

See my comments above about the Canvey Independents. Incongruous though it may seem to outsiders, Labour supporters voted for Bob Spink.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 09:37:07 +0000

‘So far South Essex has settled on the Conservatives but even in a bad Tory year, I cannot see them losing this particular seat.’

It’s unthinkable that this seat elect a Labour MP again – despite its appearance

Labour’s derisory 14% of the poll must be their worst result of the last election given that they won the seat in 97

Welwyn Hatfield and St Albans might rival it – although both seats did stick with their Labour MP’s a term longer

By: LBernard

LBernard — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 07:11:36 +0000

“The seat is clearly capable of being volatile at times”

This is very true Barnaby. Voters in many of these South Essex seats seem to have the ability to swing from one party to the next very rapidly. This is the case in my own district (Thurrock) where over the last few years council wards have switched parties fairly quickly. So far South Essex has settled on the Conservatives but even in a bad Tory year, I cannot see them losing this particular seat.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 22:39:39 +0000

John is absolutely correct. This is a constituency with an unusually high proportion of owner-occupiers. But it’s not wealthy or for the most part all that pleasant and although there was a huge swing it’s not actually all that surprising that Labour won in 1997 and made a decent attempt to defend the seat in 2001, suffering a swing markedly smaller than in some other S.Essex seats, especially Romford & Upminster. The seat is clearly capable of being volatile at times, but appears to be settled in its current incarnation as a safe Tory one for the foreseeable future.

By: L Bernard

L Bernard — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 22:34:37 +0000

I did say that there is still room for improvement here and the decay here is nothing to rival parts of Inner London in my opinion. Nor did I say that this is a rich constituency as I know it is not being 20 mins away from me!

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 22:14:55 +0000

I drove down that way a while back after visiting Southend to take a look at Canvey Island which is as John Chanin describes it. On Benfleet road (between Hadleigh and Canvey) there are some absurdly ostentatious mansions – almost Bishops Avenue like, but looking rather incongrous in their surroundings, which is flat and where the view is of a muddy river estuary and the industry of Canvey Island and further out on the Isle of Grain in Kent

By: John Chanin

John Chanin — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 20:43:56 +0000

You really haven’t looked hard enough. North of the London Road there are many decaying starter homes in a very run down area. Many parts of Canvey are far from salubrious. Just because there’s some nice housing in Hadleigh and on top of the hill in Benfleet doesn’t make this a rich constituency. In fact this is one of the most working class of Conservative seats – its primary claim to fame is the almost total absence of renting (public or private).

The key thing is the political culture of South Essex. In Southend as well the local election vote for Labour fell in 2010 compared to 2008 – no elections in 2009 – although it did improve in 2011.