Castle Point
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19806 (43.99%)
Labour: 6609 (14.68%)
Liberal Democrat: 4232 (9.4%)
BNP: 2205 (4.9%)
Others: 12174 (27.04%)
Majority: 7632 (29.31%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 22118 (48.3%)
Labour: 13917 (30.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4719 (10.3%)
Other: 5048 (11%)
Majority: 8201 (17.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17738 (44.6%)
Labour: 16753 (42.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3116 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1273 (3.2%)
Other: 883 (2.2%)
Majority: 985 (2.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19489 (40.1%)
Labour: 20605 (42.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4477 (9.2%)
Referendum: 2700 (5.6%)
Other: 1301 (2.7%)
Majority: 1116 (2.3%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Castle Point is a South Essex seat on the Thames estuary, consisting of Canvey Island and the nearby towns of South Benfleet, Thundersley amd Hadleigh. The area expanded rapidly after the second world war as people moved out of London and it is a solid slice of owner-occupied, middle class commuterland (it has the highest rate of owner-occupation of any seat in the country). Canvey Island is a seaside resort, attached to the mainland by bridge. To the west of the island there are oil and gas terminals, but this too is now largely residential.
The seat is normally rock solid Conservative and the Tories enjoyed a majority of over 30% in 1992. It fell to Labour in 1997 on a massive swing but they held it for only a single Parliament, with Bob Spink managing to retake it in 2001, one of very few Tory MPs defeated in the 1997 landslide who managed to regain the seat they lost.
Current MP: Rebecca Harris (Conservative) Former special advisor to Tim Yeo.
Rebecca Harris (Conservative) Former special advisor to Tim Yeo.
Julian Ware-Lane (Labour) IT consultant and former civil servant. Local football referee. Contested Rayleigh 2005.
Brendan D`Cruz (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Plymouth University. Head of business and computing department at the University of Wales.
Philip Howell (BNP) Butcher.
Bob Spink (Independent Save our Green Belt) born 1948, Worth valley. Educated at Holycroft Secondary Modern and the University of Manchester, with a doctorate from Cranfield University. Former engineer, management consultant and director of Bournemouth airport. Essex county councillor 1985-1992 for the Conservative party. Conservative MP for Castle Point 1992-1997 and from 2001. Spink has a reputuation as a plain spoken, Yorkshireman who had taken a consistently right wing, and often controversial line. He is a supporter of the death penalty and opposed to Britain`s membership of the European Union. In 2005 he was criticised by political opponents for publishing an advert on immigration in his local party saying “What bit of `send them back` don`t you understand Mr Blair?”. Spink faced discord with his own local party, surviving a deselection attempt in 2005, accussing a local councillor of being a conduit for an illegal donation in 2007 and clashing with the local Tory council in 2008, finally leading to his departure from the Conservative party in March 2008. For a period he was described as a UKIP MP, though it is unclear whether he ever formally joined the party.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86608
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 22.9%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.2%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 75.7%
Full time students: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 8.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.2%
Owner-Occupied: 88.5%
Social Housing: 5.6% (Council: 4.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.4%
Very creditable result for Bob Spink polling 27%.
It looks like most of Mr Spink’s vote was ex-Labour – possibly tactical in the hope that the Tory vote would be more split than turned out to be the case?
Paul D – I disagree. Labour have been losing 3,000 votes here at the last 3 GEs. Spink obviously picked up a lot of Tory ie ‘his’ votes with some Labour voters switching to the Cameron Tory.
I insist that Bob Spink’s vote was based on the Canvey independents. But yes these are ex-Labour votes. Canvey was solidly Labour in the 2 local elections in the late 1990s.
South Essex was very hostile to Labour in 2010. There were large swings everywhere, and at the simultaneous loal elections, Labour actually did worse than 2009 despite the normal higher General Election turnout. This wa svery different from most areas (but see my posts for Warwickshire)
Interesting that last paragraph.
That would indeed be well against the national trend.
Labour’s vote just disappeared in many areas in 2009.
They recovered in 2010, with the General Election turnout.
I find it extraordinary if there are any areas where the local elections show worse results than in 2009.
I’m surprised Bob Spink didn’t stand under the UKIP banner. I know that there has been confusion re his status with UKIP in the past, but maybe if he had stood for them, then he may have gained an extra 2000 votes or so.
This MP could cost the Tories (and LibDems) large numbers of votes nationwide by her advocacy of Double Summer Time. It is possible she could even cost the Conservatives the next election single-handed.
I was in Scotland when permanent Summer Time was tried a generation ago. It was horrible not having daylight by 9.00, and having an extra hour of daylight in the evening still meant getting home in the dark. So, instead of getting a little time outside in the daylight in the morning, I and many other people didn’t get any daytime at all on winter weekdays. It is not surprising that the UK went back to the previous arrangements as quickly as was decently possible.
Castle Point, being in the East of England, will be comparatively unaffected by this proposal; but I now live even further East, in Kent. And Double Summer Time would be dreadful for us.
I believe the Bill Ms. Harris is trying to get through is being sought by the tourist industry. Well, I can see that people staying as tourists for several days might like long evenings. But these days we in Kent get more money from people coming over from France and Belgium for the day to shop (or visit Canterbury Cathedral) than from people staying for days. And having British time behind European time is good for European daytrippers, who feel they get up at a reasonable time and still get to England in time to shop in the morning. They are not interested in daylight during the evening: they’ve gone home by then. And frankly the amount of money that goes into the shop tills (not least at Sainsbury and Tesco) is more important than the income of bed and breakfasts nowadays.
An even more important consideration is that London profits considerably from the numbers of business people who come by Eurostar and plane for one-day meetings. Again, they can leave, say, Paris at what seems a reasonable time for them and still be at St. Pancras by 9.30am or even 8.30am British time. Forgetting electoral considerations, if we go onto Double Summer Time business activity will shift from London to more central cities in Europe (e.g. Frankfurt). Double Summer Time could cost the City billions. And the financial costs would have indirect electoral consequences.
Time is a nonsense issue. However we set our watches, it is noon at Greeenwich at Greenwich Mean Time (“proper time”!). But of course at first sight it costs the Government little to tinker with timekeeping (as we have seen above , actually it can cost a huge amount in terms of economic damage) and I suppose it gives a new backbench MP, who is probably finding out how little power backbench MPs , sadly, really have, the feeling of doing something that will alter peoples’ lives literally on an hour by hour basis. But this is an issue on which it at best would be wiser to leave well alone. At worst, the proposal could be disastrous.
Even if (and I would dispute it, particularly given past precedent) Double Summer Time would be more likely to be of benefit than to be harmful, the potential costs if this idea does go wrong are very large compared to the envisaged benefits. It is not worth the political risk.
Con hold here, local elections.
Most likely.
The electorate here fell by over 3,000 over the last year, while it rose slightly in every other seat in Essex. Unclear if this is due to rapid population decline (unlikely) but ti means this seat will need to be expanded considerably. As the Southend seats are also somewhat undersized there could be some major rejigging of the boundaries in that area.
I think double summertime is a good idea and I have no doubt that Rebecca Harris will be re-elected at the next election. It’s interesting how this double summertime idea splits opinion. I wonder whether it’s mainly people who have to get up at 5:30am who are most against it.
Me too.
As someone who does a lot of business in Europe, and in the City, I completely disagree with Frederic’s argument.
Getting rid of the time difference between the UK and continental Europe would if anything enhance business and leisure travel in both directions.
‘I think double summertime is a good idea and I have no doubt that Rebecca Harris will be re-elected at the next election.’
I agree with Frederick in that introducing double summertime is an absolutely abysmal idea and will only reinforce the notion that the Tories are a party that primarily represents those who live in the South East
I very much doubt it will result in Ms Harris getting the boot though. Despite the freak result of ’97 this is one of those seats where a chimpanzee could be elected – so long as he was standing for the Conservatives
Chimpanzees are very popular, and they can be female too!
The only downside from my point of view would be that the time difference between UK and continental Europe would be different in summer and winter. This would cause a lot of travel confusion if Europe kept to the convention of putting the clock back one hour in winter.
I don’t buy the argument about morning sunlight. I lived in Norway for 3 years, far further north than Scotland, and they get along fine on continental time.
‘The only downside from my point of view would be that the time difference between UK and continental Europe would be different in summer and winter.’
But the Scottish would have to wait unrtil about 9;30 in the morning for the sun to rise – which might not be as bad as in Norway is still pretty uinpleasant
I’m someone who far prefers winter to summer but nothing depresses me more than waking up (or rather getting up) in the morning and it’s dark
Lots of people thought beforehand that permanent Summer Time was a good idea thirty years ago, like recent posts on this thread. But the scheme was abandoned as soon as politically possible because so many people hated the change once it actually happened. Will politicians never learn?
I don’t know why you’re working yourself into a tizzy about this, Fredieric.
It’s not going to happen.
- the Lib Dems, under pressure their large Scottish contingent, won’t let the government do this
- the government has got much bigger things to worry about
You are quite right H. Hemmelig, in a way it is not that big an issue, and the Scottish LibDems couldn’t let it happen.
Although dark mornings were a substanial annoyance when I was a student in Scotland.
Actually, from a psephological point of view the interest may not be in the issue itself; but on how a financially inexpensive but life changing issue can get picked up, and what its political and social consequences can be.
Could I make a slightly different comment? In connection with recent posts, I have tried to look up Rebecca Harris MP’s publicly available profile. It appears to me, as a personal opinion, to lack details, for instance in relation to educational background. I do gather from her own site that Ms, Harris has been marketing director of a publishing house which has been taken over, a member of Chichester District Council from 1999 to 2003 and a Special Advisor to Tim Yeo. She says that she regards outside experience in business as important, and I would agree with that.
From a psephological point of view, educational and career background are relevant because they may affect parliamentary performance and hence future electoral outcomes.
Hi Frederick
There are 4 things about that that I distrust
1. People with empty CVs have usually not done much, or got something to hide
2. I distrust ex special advisors
3. People who were on the council for only 4 years were probably only in it to help them get a seat (unless they were defeated)
4. In publishing, any idiot can call themselves a marketing director, including those who spend most of their time cold calling, spamming and junk mailing the rest of us.
I would wager her business experience is somewhat limited. Typical A lister.
I don’t know anything about this lady so I am not going to comment specifically – it’s not fair.
In general, you know my sorts of views on this subject.
Castle Point gave the biggest NO to AV: 79.71%.
I think the three largest ‘No’ votes were all in the Eastern Region:
Castle Point, Broxbourne (79.54%), and then Rochford (79.07%)
So it is perhaps not surprising that the largest ‘No’ vote in London was in Havering (77.30%).
Rebecca Harris is currently #3 on a website which is ranking MPs according to their physical attractiveness.
htt p://sexymp.co.uk/index.php
Interestingly all those currently occupying the top 10 positions are 2010 intake (mostly they are Conservatives)
It’s an interesting website.
I think the honourable members for Knowsley, Stone, Aldrdge-Brownhills, Somerton and Frome, North East Hampshire Birmingham Yardley, Walsall North and East Antrim should fight it out the the death in a knock out contest to see who can avoid the shame of coming last. And as punishment the member who does come last should have to make a personal statement to a packed house explaining why.
This is a very pleasant part of South Essex with some really lovely properties. Having been here numerous times it doesnt surprise me that the Conservative vote is so high here. I cannot see it falling anytime soon and the fact that there is still room for improvement here, particularly parts of Hadeigh, will only bring in more (likely) Tory voters.
Surely this has to be one of the safest Conservative seats along with Romford, Beckenham and Brentwood and Ongar?
You really haven’t looked hard enough. North of the London Road there are many decaying starter homes in a very run down area. Many parts of Canvey are far from salubrious. Just because there’s some nice housing in Hadleigh and on top of the hill in Benfleet doesn’t make this a rich constituency. In fact this is one of the most working class of Conservative seats – its primary claim to fame is the almost total absence of renting (public or private).
The key thing is the political culture of South Essex. In Southend as well the local election vote for Labour fell in 2010 compared to 2008 – no elections in 2009 – although it did improve in 2011.
I drove down that way a while back after visiting Southend to take a look at Canvey Island which is as John Chanin describes it. On Benfleet road (between Hadleigh and Canvey) there are some absurdly ostentatious mansions – almost Bishops Avenue like, but looking rather incongrous in their surroundings, which is flat and where the view is of a muddy river estuary and the industry of Canvey Island and further out on the Isle of Grain in Kent
I did say that there is still room for improvement here and the decay here is nothing to rival parts of Inner London in my opinion. Nor did I say that this is a rich constituency as I know it is not being 20 mins away from me!
John is absolutely correct. This is a constituency with an unusually high proportion of owner-occupiers. But it’s not wealthy or for the most part all that pleasant and although there was a huge swing it’s not actually all that surprising that Labour won in 1997 and made a decent attempt to defend the seat in 2001, suffering a swing markedly smaller than in some other S.Essex seats, especially Romford & Upminster. The seat is clearly capable of being volatile at times, but appears to be settled in its current incarnation as a safe Tory one for the foreseeable future.
“The seat is clearly capable of being volatile at times”
This is very true Barnaby. Voters in many of these South Essex seats seem to have the ability to swing from one party to the next very rapidly. This is the case in my own district (Thurrock) where over the last few years council wards have switched parties fairly quickly. So far South Essex has settled on the Conservatives but even in a bad Tory year, I cannot see them losing this particular seat.
‘So far South Essex has settled on the Conservatives but even in a bad Tory year, I cannot see them losing this particular seat.’
It’s unthinkable that this seat elect a Labour MP again – despite its appearance
Labour’s derisory 14% of the poll must be their worst result of the last election given that they won the seat in 97
Welwyn Hatfield and St Albans might rival it – although both seats did stick with their Labour MP’s a term longer
See my comments above about the Canvey Independents. Incongruous though it may seem to outsiders, Labour supporters voted for Bob Spink.
Possibly as a way to keep the Tories out although there was never going to be enough of them to allow this to happen.
Another point here is that the Labour voters that are here are not of the liberal (Islington) type but fit into the ex eastender old Labour category rather than Blair/Brown Labour. A decline in Labour votes here may also be due to many of these types passing away.
“Labour’s derisory 14% of the poll must be their worst result of the last election given that they won the seat in 97″
“Welwyn Hatfield and St Albans might rival it – although both seats did stick with their Labour MP’s a term longer”
We can also add their lamentable result at Norfolk NW at the last GE to that list.
Nothing I like better than a challenge. Although boundary changes make direct comparison difficult, the lowest Labour vote in 2010 in a seat that they won in 1997 is Norfolk North West with 13.3%, as stated by Stephen Botfield.
You can also add Wyre Forest (14.3%) to the list, although like Castle Point this is affected by a strong independent vote. Camborne & Redruth also had a lower vote than St Albans, although boundary changes played a part here. Romford is the only other one below 20% (excluding Braintree which is really a new seat).
In Welwyn Labour managed a relatively respectable 21.4%, better than Hemel Hempstead