Comments on: Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 23:46:45 +0000

I haven’t had this down as anything other than a Tory gain for quite a long time. If anything I think Labour’s chances of holding it are improving a little bit, but it will still be CON GAIN. Labour definitely 2nd though, not Plaid Cymru.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 23:24:51 +0000

Conservative: 12000
Plaid Cymru: 11500
Labour: 11000
Liberal Democrat: 4500
Other: 1500
Majority: 500

By: richard j

richard j — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 22:52:17 +0000

CORRECTION Conservatives. It has been a long day.

By: richard j

richard j — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 22:50:24 +0000

I was shown some figures a few days ago on Welsh Marginal seats.
I originally had this seat down as a Labour hold now believe Plaid Cymru will gain the seat unless the Labour party up their work rate dramatically between now and the election.

By: Harry Porter

Harry Porter — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 19:29:35 +0000

‘The Fishguard area & some territory further North than that…were the only parts of Pembrokeshire included in the Ceredigion & North Pembroke seat. Fishguard is now in Preseli Permbrokeshire’

Therefore I would guess that Fishguard was in Pembroke until 1983 and Ceredigion and Pembroke N until 1997

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 13:04:37 +0000

“You have I think Shaun expressed a distaste for long-ago election statistics and I think Pete is simply referring to that.”

Oh I see. No I’m all in favour of long ago election statisitcs. I spent a lot of my time at university in the library researching past elections from the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

The point I was making was that elections are about parties and party politic, and so to discuss them in a way that is non-political or non-party political as some seem to want is a nonsense.

To illustrate this, I have said in the past that with real campaigns going on, with real arguments and real elections, why are we restricting ourselves to discussing whether such and such a boundary was 2 feet to the left in 1885?

In the LONG (too long) periods inbetween elections, I’m as interested in ancient election data as the next man

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 11:27:21 +0000

Looks like it at the moment.

By: Neil Turner

Neil Turner — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 10:41:34 +0000

Putting history aside, surely Nick Ainger cannot hold on next time around?

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 10:34:52 +0000

You have I think Shaun expressed a distaste for long-ago election statistics and I think Pete is simply referring to that. However others too have expressed a similar view. I myself have no objection at all although my knowledge is distinctly sketchy before 1945.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 09:24:02 +0000

Apologies to me? is this a conversation that I’ve forgotten about, Pete?