Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.65%)
Liberal Democrat: 4890 (12.07%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.45%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.83%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
Majority: 3423 (8.45%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14113 (36.7%)
Conservative: 12050 (31.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 5906 (15.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5455 (14.2%)
Other: 900 (2.3%)
Majority: 2063 (5.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12043 (31.8%)
Labour: 13953 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5399 (14.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5582 (14.7%)
UKIP: 545 (1.4%)
Other: 341 (0.9%)
Majority: 1910 (5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10811 (29.3%)
Labour: 15349 (41.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3248 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6893 (18.7%)
UKIP: 537 (1.5%)
Other: 78 (0.2%)
Majority: 4538 (12.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11335 (26.6%)
Labour: 20956 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3516 (8.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5402 (12.7%)
Referendum: 1432 (3.4%)
Majority: 9621 (22.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Simon Hart (Conservative)
Simon Hart (Conservative) Nick Ainger(Labour) (more information at They work for you)John Gossage (Liberal Democrat) John Dixon (Plaid Cymru) born 1951, Cardiff. Educted at Stanwell Comprehensive. Freelance IT project manager. Glamorgan Borough Councillor 1976-1991. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 1979, 1983, 1989 by-election, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 2005, 2007 Welsh assembly elections.Ray Clarke (UKIP)Henry Langen (Independent) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 72028
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 25.3%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70.2%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 10.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.2%
C gain maj 5000
Con maj 2,000
I have been very surprised by the lack of UKIP presence. I thought this time round there would be more support. I’m a supporter, as it is the party with the most policies I agree with, the main ones regarding Economy and Foreign Affairs.
There seem to be no posters around at all, and I have only spoken to people I know that say they’ll be voting for them (e.g. not heard from any people I’m not friends with, or random people).
I think it may be due to their in-ability to focus on domestic issues where they could pull apart some of the other parties, as Europe is such a big thing and they (we) are so passionate about that aspect of UKIP. Its a shame. I also think lack of leadership skills to generate support in local areas like this is a problem, maybe due to lack of funding.
CON GAIN
Will labours vote harden up with the fear of the tories getting a majority?
If YouGov’s poll last night is accurate, perhaps yes it might.
Note the Plaid demise here
2001 (18.7%) 2005 notionals (15.4%) 2010 (10.45%)
This seat like Vale of Glamorgan is simply a straight Labour/Tory fight. If Labour win this seat they will be the largest party but if the Tories win they are likely to be.
Plaid have selected mid and west Wales list member Nerys Evans for this seat. She must have some confidence of winning otherwise whe wouldnt have given up her safe list seat. Any thoughts?
Any news on who other parties have selected?
Is she not standing on the list as well? Certainly here in Scotland it would be quite common for list MSPs to stand for a seat as well, even if they’re chances are slim, knowing they still have a safety net to hopefully catch them if they fail.
All the time, Tonyotim
I don’t think that’s allowed in Wales.
benjamin, you’re right. In Wales it’s not allowed since 2007 election.
Any developments in this key marginal seat?
Labour have reselected Christine Gwyther to fight this again next year
Nerys Evans addressed the SNP conference and got a big round of applause for announcing that she was only standing in ‘Gwynfor Evans’ old seat’ instead of on the list (which I thought was quite funny given that almost every prominent SNP politician is standing in both a constituency and on the list). It’s a bold move, and i’m not sure if it’ll pay off, but you do have to admire her for doing it.
Unexpected Tory gain here – given that old seat of Carmathen was held by the Labour Party throughout the 1980s and 90s
The old Carmarthen seat was mostly put into Carmarthen E & Dinefwr while a majority of this seat came from Pembrokeshire. I don’t think the Tory gain here was unexpected by many people
SHAUN BENNETT
Cons Gain= 2,000 maj
April 7th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
HYWEL
Con Gain = 3,000
April 12th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
T SAYS…
CON 4800
April 13th, 2010 at 7:26 am
NEILY
Con Gain
Maj 3800
April 15th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
VOTEDAVE
C gain maj 5000
April 16th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
PETE WHITEHEAD
Con maj 2,000
April 20th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
and even:
BARNABY JL MARDER
CON GAIN
May 4th, 2010 at 10:27 am
I thought Pressili Pembrokeshire was more the successor seat to the old Pembrokeshire seat – the one held by Nick Bennett for the Tories – than this,
Still a good Tory result given that in 1992 – the last time the Tories had a majority – Carmarthen and Pembrokeshire were both in the Labour column
Now both are Tory
it’s a bit complex. the most strongly Tory parts of that former Pembroke seat are in this seat now. Labour is stronger in the Carmarthenshire section of this seat, although Pembroke Dock is a traditional Labour stronghold.
Carmarthen was divided 68.4% to Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and 31.6% to this seat
Pembroke went 55.2% to Preseli Pembrokeshire and 44.8% to this seat. So Preseli Pembs was the main sucessor to Pembroke and CE&D was the main successor to Carmarthen.
This seat came 60% from Pembroke and 40% from Carmarthen and was an entirely new seat.
This seat had a notional Labour majority of 1,310 in 1992 and Preseli Pembs had a notional Conservative majority of 603.
I agree it is a good Tory result also given the size of Labour’s 1997 majority. I take issue with the notion that it was unexpected however
Once this seat went blue in the Assembly elections I thought it was always a likely gain at Westminster
‘Once this seat went blue in the Assembly elections I thought it was always a likely gain at Westminster’
It doesn’t always follow…
Plaid Cymru won the old Conwy seat in bthe Assembly first time it was contested – yet in the 97 Westminister election it was a three-way marginal between Tory, labour and Lib Dem
Even at the last election in the new Aberconwy Plaid came 4th at westminster and yet they still hold the assembly seat
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Gain
Nope, what a result. Simply stunning
I was surprised Labour failed to take this but was less surprised at the hold in Llanelli.
Not Llanelli sorry, Preseli