Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14113 (36.7%)
Conservative: 12050 (31.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 5906 (15.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5455 (14.2%)
Other: 900 (2.3%)
Majority: 2063 (5.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12043 (31.8%)
Labour: 13953 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5399 (14.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5582 (14.7%)
UKIP: 545 (1.4%)
Other: 341 (0.9%)
Majority: 1910 (5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10811 (29.3%)
Labour: 15349 (41.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3248 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6893 (18.7%)
UKIP: 537 (1.5%)
Other: 78 (0.2%)
Majority: 4538 (12.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11335 (26.6%)
Labour: 20956 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3516 (8.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5402 (12.7%)
Referendum: 1432 (3.4%)
Majority: 9621 (22.6%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Nick Ainger (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Simon Hart (Conservative)
John Gossage (Liberal Democrat)
John Dixon (Plaid Cymru) born 1951, Cardiff. Educted at Stanwell Comprehensive. Freelance IT project manager. Glamorgan Borough Councillor 1976-1991. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 1979, 1983, 1989 by-election, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 2005, 2007 Welsh assembly elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 72028
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 25.3%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70.2%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 10.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.2%
Of course, Plaid will fall back slightly at a Westminster election. I’d now have this seat as a near cert Tory gain.
If the Conservatives do win this seat, as seems likely, it will be the first time that any part of Carmarthenshire has returned a Conservative MP to Westminster for nearly 150 years (I think 1868 was the last time a Tory was elected in the county, though Liberal MP Alfred Mond did defect to the Tories while representing Carmarthen in 1926). The only other county in the whole United Kingdom which never had at least part of it represented by a Conservative in the 20th century is Cardiganshire and that seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Vaughan Roderick on the Beed is blogging (in Welsh) on this today. He discusses the tactics of Simon Hart, the Tory candidate, in winning the nomination. He quotes John Jenkins in February 2007:
“”I was Deputy Chairman in charge of membership for that association when friends of Mr Hart started recruiting en masse with a view to hijacking the local Association. I remember one branch signing up over 90 members in one month which, for an association at the time with only 400 members, was a considerable proportion.”
They have also raised a pile of money over the last few years. Nothing illegal of course but I just wonder at the rural Welsh reaction to such overt carpetbagging….just a thought ! Tories still odds on…
On the “Beeb” of course
What I would say, Dewi, is that in the Lib Dems we have rules to counter this kind of carpet bagging / fixing nominations. New members cannot vote for PPCs until they have been in continuous membership for a year. This has occasionally got people’s backs up, but it does prevent distortion of the “proper” members’ viewpoint. In a case which occurred a few years ago, most of the “new members” allowed their membership to lapse and did not renew - the only reason they ever joined was to vote in that specific election. I am sure it is not beyond the wit of Tories to adopt similar rules. But then they do mad things like having “open” selections!
Tim,
Two advantages of allowing “carpet-baggers”:-
1 - if the candidate can be that organised to secure the nomination, then the candidate is likely to put in a fairly committed campaign to win the seat.
2 - the prospect of being targetted in this way should keep an association on its toes and prevent them from becoming lax - thereby allowing the party’s prospects in that seta to decline. [This after all is how so many Tory seats fell to an active Liberal campaign over the years.]
My Prediction:
Conservative: 15000
Plaid: 9000
Labour: 9000
Lib Dems: 4000
“The closeness of the assembly election here is uncanny!!! Only 240 votes between the Tories and third place Plaid.
Conservative Angela Burns 8,590 30.1 +9.8
Labour Christine Gwyther 8,492 29.7 -5.1
Plaid Cymru John Dixon 8,340 29.2 -4.0″
Compare with the Euro result:
Con 5612
PC 3714
Lab 2902
UKIP 2411
LD 1640
The Conservative performance here was almost as good as it was in Preseli Pembrokshire:
Con 5748
PC 3309
Lab 2975
UKIP 2379
LD 1691