Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14113 (36.7%)
Conservative: 12050 (31.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 5906 (15.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5455 (14.2%)
Other: 900 (2.3%)
Majority: 2063 (5.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12043 (31.8%)
Labour: 13953 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5399 (14.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5582 (14.7%)
UKIP: 545 (1.4%)
Other: 341 (0.9%)
Majority: 1910 (5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10811 (29.3%)
Labour: 15349 (41.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3248 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6893 (18.7%)
UKIP: 537 (1.5%)
Other: 78 (0.2%)
Majority: 4538 (12.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11335 (26.6%)
Labour: 20956 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3516 (8.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5402 (12.7%)
Referendum: 1432 (3.4%)
Majority: 9621 (22.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Nick Ainger(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Simon Hart (Conservative) Nick Ainger(Labour) (more information at They work for you)John Gossage (Liberal Democrat) John Dixon (Plaid Cymru) born 1951, Cardiff. Educted at Stanwell Comprehensive. Freelance IT project manager. Glamorgan Borough Councillor 1976-1991. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 1979, 1983, 1989 by-election, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 2005, 2007 Welsh assembly elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 72028
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 25.3%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70.2%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 10.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.2%
If the Tories were to win this seat would it be the first time since any part of Carmarthenshire has had a Conservative MP since 1900? or how long previously?
I suggested over the page that 1868 was the last time but it was in fact 1880 when the Carmarthenshire county seat returned one Conservative and one Liberal. It was though a two member division and had only one LIberal and two Conservative candidates that year so a Conservative could hardly have failed to get elected. In the previous election though (in 1874) two Conservatives were elected in a straight fight against two Liberals and they also won the Carmarthen district (which included Carmarthen and Llanelly)
Apologies to Shaun Bennett
Apologies to me? is this a conversation that I’ve forgotten about, Pete?
You have I think Shaun expressed a distaste for long-ago election statistics and I think Pete is simply referring to that. However others too have expressed a similar view. I myself have no objection at all although my knowledge is distinctly sketchy before 1945.
Putting history aside, surely Nick Ainger cannot hold on next time around?
Looks like it at the moment.
“You have I think Shaun expressed a distaste for long-ago election statistics and I think Pete is simply referring to that.”
Oh I see. No I’m all in favour of long ago election statisitcs. I spent a lot of my time at university in the library researching past elections from the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
The point I was making was that elections are about parties and party politic, and so to discuss them in a way that is non-political or non-party political as some seem to want is a nonsense.
To illustrate this, I have said in the past that with real campaigns going on, with real arguments and real elections, why are we restricting ourselves to discussing whether such and such a boundary was 2 feet to the left in 1885?
In the LONG (too long) periods inbetween elections, I’m as interested in ancient election data as the next man
‘The Fishguard area & some territory further North than that…were the only parts of Pembrokeshire included in the Ceredigion & North Pembroke seat. Fishguard is now in Preseli Permbrokeshire’
Therefore I would guess that Fishguard was in Pembroke until 1983 and Ceredigion and Pembroke N until 1997
I was shown some figures a few days ago on Welsh Marginal seats.
I originally had this seat down as a Labour hold now believe Plaid Cymru will gain the seat unless the Labour party up their work rate dramatically between now and the election.
CORRECTION Conservatives. It has been a long day.
Conservative: 12000
Plaid Cymru: 11500
Labour: 11000
Liberal Democrat: 4500
Other: 1500
Majority: 500
I haven’t had this down as anything other than a Tory gain for quite a long time. If anything I think Labour’s chances of holding it are improving a little bit, but it will still be CON GAIN. Labour definitely 2nd though, not Plaid Cymru.