Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14113 (36.7%)
Conservative: 12050 (31.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 5906 (15.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5455 (14.2%)
Other: 900 (2.3%)
Majority: 2063 (5.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12043 (31.8%)
Labour: 13953 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5399 (14.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5582 (14.7%)
UKIP: 545 (1.4%)
Other: 341 (0.9%)
Majority: 1910 (5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10811 (29.3%)
Labour: 15349 (41.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3248 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6893 (18.7%)
UKIP: 537 (1.5%)
Other: 78 (0.2%)
Majority: 4538 (12.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11335 (26.6%)
Labour: 20956 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3516 (8.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5402 (12.7%)
Referendum: 1432 (3.4%)
Majority: 9621 (22.6%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Nick Ainger (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Simon Hart (Conservative)
John Gossage (Liberal Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 72028
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 25.3%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70.2%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 10.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.2%
12 Responses
I live just over the border in Preseli, but I know area and MP well.
October 9th, 2006 at 7:03 amNick is a popular local Mp and provded he stands I would be very surprised if he loses this seat.
Local Tories have recently had a bit of a fall out with hunt campaigners apparently having a big influence in the local party.
This may count against them as this is not a hunting and shooting constituency.
This is one of those seats that is a Labour/Conservative marginal at Westminster & a Labour/Plaid/Conservative at the Assembly.
I think it will stay Red at Westminster but go Yellow in Cardiff Bay
October 11th, 2006 at 11:27 amA key target for the Tories who will be building on the gradual erosion of the Labour vote in the past two elections.
October 12th, 2006 at 2:14 pmThis is not a natural seat, comprising two very different electorates - South Pembs is English speaking, with Strong Conservative support in places like Tenby, and traditional Labour supporters around Pembroke Dock.
On the other hand Carmarthen West is Welsh speaking with strong Plaid Cymru support.
There is a lot of tactical voting and voters will switch to prevent their least favoured candidate from winning. Predict Conservative at Westminster and Plaid in Cardiff Bay
October 18th, 2006 at 8:12 amLiving in the constituency, I believe an increasing number of people in Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire want a credible alternative to Labour and if the Tories select a good local candidate then Nick Ainger will have a fight on his hands.
October 18th, 2006 at 6:00 pmI agree with Mike Morgan. Split Ticket voting will increase as people get more used to devolution. In May, plaid could well win this at Tiger Bay, whereas those same voters could well hold their noses and vote for the best placed candidate to defeat labour at a Westminster Level, in this case the Tories.
January 15th, 2007 at 7:06 pmConservatives came through the middle to win this assembly seat while losing out in Aberconway. I would now expect a Tory gain at the general election too.
May 10th, 2007 at 7:00 pmBradford South
My money would be on a Tory gain here next time, judging by the magnitude of the party’s recovery here since 1997.
July 2nd, 2007 at 4:26 pmRichmond Park
Could be right. But, again, the swing required is not elementary. The previous Assembly elections, moreover, were not a very accurate guide to the Westminster election that followed. Close I reckon.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:38 pmAinger is devious and does not like local people knowing what he gets up ….. Simon Hart has energy but will scheme … the best candidate is noe of them..
May 26th, 2008 at 4:26 pmcardiff west
At the local elections the Parties polled the following percentages in this seat.
independents 39.15
Labour 23.04
Plaid c. 21.35
tories 11.31
lib Dems 5.13
it is difficult to calculate much from this given the independent vote being so high. It does look like Plaid’s vote has risen since the last general election but that may dissapear at the next general election.
July 5th, 2008 at 11:05 ama difficult seat to call could be a conservative gain or a very, very small labour majority.
Plaid Cymru have selected John Dixon as their candidate. He came third in the Assembly election last year, but there were only 250 votes between first and third, in the closest three way fight in Wales.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:19 pm