Comments on: Carlisle

By: Dalek

Dalek — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 18:44:49 +0000

The Tories have only ever won Carlise in two elections since WW2 prior to last year (1955 and 1959).

The Guardian gives the new Carlise a notional Conservative majority of 5762.

On these boundaries between 1945 and now its in certain that Labour would only have won in October 1974 and 1997. Even 1945, 1950, 1966, Feb 1974, 2001 and 2005 would have been too close to call.

Tories would certainly have won in 1955, 1959, 1964, 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992 and 2010.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 23:48:44 +0000

Labour held a very small lead in Stevenage borough in the local elections but they wouldnt have had in the constituency as a whole. I suspect it may be a case though where they carried the borough in the locals but not in the general, but as far as the wider constituency the Conservatives would have been ahead in both.

By: David

David — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 22:56:07 +0000

and I also wondered if Stevenage might be a third? Not worked out the results on that one, though I know Labour dominant local elections there so just a hunch!

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 16:31:53 +0000

Another example of what you describe here is Brent Central. I agree there are far more examples of the opposite happening

By: David

David — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 15:15:57 +0000

Best guess for Carlisle local election results in 2011, with change on 2010
Lab 45.2% (+5.2%)
Con 36.7% (-0.4%)
LD 6.3% (-4.4%)
Oth 11.8% (-0.4%)

A small amount of estimation as Burgh ward didn’t vote in 2010 (took the result from 2007) and Wetheral didnt vote in 2011 (took the result from 2010).

Very limited change overall in terms of seats, just a Labour gain in Castle, which was the one ward the Tories didn’t stand in. Interestingly this is the first seat I’ve found where Labour ‘won’ locally in 2010 but lost the same area in the general election on the same day (many where the reverse is true, i.e. Edgbaston, Sheffield Central, Newcastle North, Wirral South, Southampton Itchen, Bolton West to name a few). It could be a result of the LDs not standing in several wards in 2010, with the effect of inflating Labour’s local total and lowering the LDs, though the Tory share was also a little higher in the General vote than the local one.

This seat needs at least 7,500 extra voters to come up to the new quota.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 21:05:53 +0000

I don’t think you could move ALL of Whitehaven into Workington though could you. In reality it would porbably be at best split between seats…and I don’t think it would have much impact on either.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 20:59:22 +0000

Yes presumably about 7 northern wards of P & the B will be added and Dalston might be taken out as has been suggested upthread. I imagine those changes could just prevent Labour taking back the seat.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 20:40:45 +0000

I assume a larger Carlisle constituency would include more of the cities rural wards currently in Penrith & The Border and be more Tory?

Also, a combined Whitehaven & Workington urban constituency could be a solid Labour seat.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 14:28:07 +0000

That is probably achievable. If Labour do indeed pick up Castle this year, and then repeat the feat next year, they should also gain Morton from the LDs & both Belle Vue & Yewdale from the Tories next year. That would give Labour 28 seats, a majority of 4. But it isn’t a formality to pick up Castle. I don’t think control can be achieved this year for Labour.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 14:09:30 +0000

Labour should definately be looking to pick up Castle as a minimum if they are going to be able to claim voters are switching to them from the Lib Dems in great numbers.

I remember that Carlisle started swinging back to Labour in the mid 2000s after above average Tory wins under Hague in 1997-2001. There was a point when I thought the council would be gained by Labour a few years ago, but they didn’t.

Tories have done very well to keep Carlisle balanced. But surely Labour should be regaining overall control next year at the very latest?