Carlisle
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17517 (45.7%)
Conservative: 13448 (35.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6180 (16.1%)
Other: 1217 (3.2%)
Majority: 4069 (10.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11324 (32%)
Labour: 17019 (48.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5916 (16.7%)
UKIP: 792 (2.2%)
Other: 343 (1%)
Majority: 5695 (16.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12154 (34.8%)
Labour: 17856 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4076 (11.7%)
Other: 823 (2.4%)
Majority: 5702 (16.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12641 (29%)
Labour: 25031 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4576 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1233 (2.8%)
Other: 126 (0.3%)
Majority: 12390 (28.4%)
Boundary changes: gains Wetheral and part of Stanwix Urban ward.
Profile: Carlisle is located in the extreme north-west of England, near the Scottish border. The seat covers the city of Carlisle itself and the surrounding rural area to the South and West, including Dalston and the more affluent dormitory village of Wetheral to the East. Carlisle is a compact town, historically its position near the border made it an important strategic stronghold and the castle and city walls remain relatively intact. Local indistries includes Carrs Biscuits and the headquarters of the Eddie Stobart haulage firm.
The city was hit by severe flooding in 2005 and significant redevelopment of the city centre is currently underway. From 2007 the city will be the site of the University of Cumbria, formed from the Cumbria campuses of the University of Central Lancashire.
The seat has been held by Labour since 1964 but is increasingly becoming a Conservative target seat and subsequent boundary reviews add rural wards to the s/p>
Outgoing MP: Eric Martlew(Labour) born 1949, Makerfield. Educated at Harraby secondary and Carlisle College. Prior to his election was a lab tecnicaian and personnel manager at Nestle. Former Carlisle Borough councillor (1972-4) and Cumbria County Councillor (1973-88). First elected as MP for Carlisle 1987. Opposition whip 1996-7, shadow defence minister 1992-97. PPS to Baroness Jay until 2005. Will stand down at next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
John Stevenson (Conservative) Solicitor. Carlisle councillor.
Michael Boaden (Labour) Carlisle councillor. Contested Penrith and the Border 2001, 2005.
Neil Hughes (Liberal Democrat)
John Reardon (Green) Born Carlisle. Teacher. Former Carlisle councillor for the Labour party.
Michael Owen (UKIP) 
Peter Howe (Independent) Former policeman. Runs a fireplace store.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80454
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 21.5%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 80.3%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.9%
Owner-Occupied: 69.8%
Social Housing: 19.9% (Council: 17%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.8%
Interesting post, John Reardon, including useful gen about the implications of local politics here.
I guess the psephological question is whether the flooding issues in Carlisle can be transferred into support for the Greens.
The Green and TUSC interventions will probably help the Tories slightly if the result is tight. Incidentally, we are being told that TUSC candidates are standing in various seats; but what do the initials TUSC stand for, what are their policies and what are their antecedents? I guess they are a hard-left coalition, in which case on past precedent they will make little impact except perhaps in one or two exceptional seats (as George Galloway did for Respect). I guess I could Google about all this, but frankly I doubt if it is worth my while.
John Reardon will probably get more votes from the Labour-disillusioned left than will TUSC, particularly given his past political career.
Frederic: TUSC = Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition. Thier web site is:- wwwDOTtuscDOTuk. (Obviously repace the DOT with .)
Dave Nellist is standing in Coventry NE, which should give you some idea of the Socialist area they appeal to. Another coalition for this election (Alliance for Democracy being the other I know of, to date).
Sorry, quoted the web address wrongly, need to add org. :-
wwwDOTtuscDOTorgDOTuk.
Thanks, Blake.
On past hard-left form, TUSC are going to lose a lot of deposits! And there is no reason I know of why they should do particularly well in Carlisle.
The hard-left need, if they are not to waste their time and resources, to ask serious questions as to why they don’t do better. But what I came across of the left wing of the Labour Party years ago, that is not the way they think.
The new Lib Dem candidate is Neil Hughes
Carlisle to count votes on election night:
http://bit.ly/aOrObs
Penrith and the Border as well:
http://bit.ly/b4vHGt