Carlisle
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17517 (45.7%)
Conservative: 13448 (35.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6180 (16.1%)
Other: 1217 (3.2%)
Majority: 4069 (10.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11324 (32%)
Labour: 17019 (48.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5916 (16.7%)
UKIP: 792 (2.2%)
Other: 343 (1%)
Majority: 5695 (16.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12154 (34.8%)
Labour: 17856 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4076 (11.7%)
Other: 823 (2.4%)
Majority: 5702 (16.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12641 (29%)
Labour: 25031 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4576 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1233 (2.8%)
Other: 126 (0.3%)
Majority: 12390 (28.4%)
Boundary changes: gains Wetheral and part of Stanwix Urban ward.
Profile: Carlisle is located in the extreme north-west of England, near the Scottish border. The seat covers the city of Carlisle itself and the surrounding rural area to the South and West, including Dalston and the more affluent dormitory village of Wetheral to the East. Carlisle is a compact town, historically its position near the border made it an important strategic stronghold and the castle and city walls remain relatively intact. Local indistries includes Carrs Biscuits and the headquarters of the Eddie Stobart haulage firm.
The city was hit by severe flooding in 2005 and significant redevelopment of the city centre is currently underway. From 2007 the city will be the site of the University of Cumbria, formed from the Cumbria campuses of the University of Central Lancashire.
The seat has been held by Labour since 1964 but is increasingly becoming a Conservative target seat and subsequent boundary reviews add rural wards to the seat.
Current MP: Eric Martlew (Labour) born 1949, Makerfield. Educated at Harraby secondary and Carlisle College. Prior to his election was a lab tecnicaian and personnel manager at Nestle. Former Carlisle Borough councillor (1972-4) and Cumbria County Councillor (1973-88). First elected as MP for Carlisle 1987. Opposition whip 1996-7, shadow defence minister 1992-97. PPS to Baroness Jay until 2005. Will stand down at next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
John Stevenson (Conservative) Solicitor. Carlisle councillor.
Stephen Tweedie (Liberal Democrat) born 1975, Carlisle. Educated at Nelson Thomlinson School and University of Northumbria. Director of a publishing resale company. Carlisle councillor since 2006. Contested Carlisle 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80454
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 21.5%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 80.3%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.9%
Owner-Occupied: 69.8%
Social Housing: 19.9% (Council: 17%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.8%
My guess is that the Tories wouldn’t like to risk the safeness of Penrith & the Border in a Labour landslide year by having two sandwiches. They probably wouldn’t lose them even in a Labour landslide year but local parties tend to be ultra-cautious about that sort of thing. On these boundaries Carlisle would probably have been Tory in 1983 and 1987 of course.
“Yes I guess its fair to say, Wandsworth central formed part of that whole belt on the southern fringes of the LCC area from Putney to Lewisham, which saw a trend against the Tories in the 60s and 70s but while the trend in Lewisham, Dulwich, Streatham etc has continued that in the Wandsworth area has been put into reverse”
I think I described them as ‘half way out seats’ on another thread. Croydon North is another example and there are some in north London such as Hornsey, FinchleyEaling North and Leyton & Wanstead.
What would Clapham constituency be part of now? Streatham perhaps?
Clapham was a Wandsworth consituency which was annexed (together with Streatham) by Lambeth in 1965/ 66.
Its last MP elected in 1970, became the MP for Streatham in 1974 (and took with him the Southern part of his Clapham constituency).
The North of the Clapham constituency formed part of Lambeth Central from 1974 - 1983 and then this area has been part of Vauxhall since 1983.
The Clapham constituency (abolished in 1974) will be more or less equally divided between Streatham and Vauxhall today.
If the conservatives did take this seat how many of the English border seats would they expect to have?
BTW - why has the Lib Dem candidate stood down?
When a candidate stands down, it always seems to be for “personal reasons”, which never get elaborated on.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dem-ppc-quits-over-website-14111.html
The link above explains the issue behind the Libdem resignation Tam.
“If the conservatives did take this seat how many of the English border seats would they expect to have?”
It depends on what you mean border seats - do you mean the Scottish side to (that includes Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con), Dumfries & Galloway (Lab) and Berwickshire, Selkirk & Roxburgh (Lib Dem) - the seats that the Conservatives would like to win/ hold).
In addition to Carlise, the Conservatives would also like win Berwick Upon Tweed and retain Hexham in Northumbria. In Cumbria, the Conservatives would like Carlisle and Copeland, in addition to Penrith & The Border. They would also like Workington, but Labour are far more secure here.
Not sure whether, despite being Cumbria, Barrow and Westmoreland are ‘borders seats’?
Peter
I would probably think that list is pretty much it.
Whilst the Libdems have to select a new candidate,(and the Labour Party have yet to get going on their selection)the Green Party has selected John Reardon, an ex Labour Cllr. He stood at the 2005 GE as the Labour candidate in Westmorland and Lonsdale. He was rather poorly treated by the local Labour Party, so I doubt will pull any punches.
First time I can recollect a Green candidate at the GE.
Well he wont be attracting any Conservative votes but he could well be an easy outlet for disaffected Labour supporters.