Cardiff West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12143 (29.65%)
Labour: 16893 (41.25%)
Liberal Democrat: 7186 (17.55%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.73%)
Green: 750 (1.83%)
Majority: 4750 (11.6%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16908 (44.1%)
Conservative: 9047 (23.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6492 (16.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 4873 (12.7%)
Other: 997 (2.6%)
Majority: 7861 (20.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7562 (21.9%)
Labour: 15729 (45.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6060 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 4316 (12.5%)
UKIP: 727 (2.1%)
Other: 167 (0.5%)
Majority: 8167 (23.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7273 (21.3%)
Labour: 18594 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4458 (13.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 3296 (9.7%)
UKIP: 462 (1.4%)
Majority: 11321 (33.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8669 (21.5%)
Labour: 24297 (60.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4366 (10.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 1949 (4.8%)
Referendum: 996 (2.5%)
Majority: 15628 (38.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Kevin Brennan(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Angela Jones-Evans (Conservative) Kevin Brennan(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Rachael Hitchinson (Liberal Democrat).Mohammed Sarul Islam (Plaid Cymru) Jake Griffiths (Green) Mike Henessey (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83836
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 25.1%
Over 60: 19.1%
Born outside UK: 6.3%
White: 92.4%
Black: 1%
Asian: 3.8%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 67.3%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 3.2%
Full time students: 4.5%
Graduates 16-74: 24.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.2%
Owner-Occupied: 69.1%
Social Housing: 19.6% (Council: 13.8%, Housing Ass.: 5.8%)
Privately Rented: 8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
The last local election Plaid won in Fairwater because they had worked hard leafleting and campaigning, also the local Labour councillors were regarded as deadbeats.
I think that the Liberal win in Llandaff was a fluke, and Tories should have won, if they were’tn so complacent and lazy. Also it did not help when the Lib Dems put out leaflets talking about “Russell Goodway’s Labour party” winning , I thought that it was dishonest, but worked. I also remember 1983 and agree with Richard J assessment of the Caerau councillors. In fact we used to joke about Bill Carling’s “Home Guard Vote” (local social club he was treasurer of) being the reason he used to get back in. the SDP/Alliance won after he died in a byelection. I think that Labour will win, unless Plaid can siphon off enough of their vote.
The Riverside by election will be a good barometer of May 5th. Steve Garrett is doing very well. The Conservative vote is falling away. May looks very interesting.
Neil Mcevoy
Well of course you’re going to say partisan things like that when you’re the (ex-Labour) Plaid C candidate for May!
For all your comments can be relied on, Conservative could be about to win by a country mile! (I freely admit I have no idea personally of course)
Steve Garrett did very well……..so well he lost the seat quite easily to Labour! The result :
Lab 1700 (46.8; +14.4)
Plaid Cymru 1099 (30.3; -13.6)
Con 369 (10.2; -2.0)
Green 277 (7.6; +7.6)
LD Gwilym Owen 187 (5.1; -6.4)
Majority 601
Turnout not known
Lab GAIN from Plaid Cymru
Percentage change is since May 2008.
Here’s to Plaid continuing to “do well”! Seriously though, it is a good result for Labour, and yet another pretty poor one for the LDs although of course they weren’t challengers in this ward.
I am sure that Mark Drakeford will win Cardiff West with ease. Neil McEvoy did well before he was elected to the Council, and though he has a reputation for working hard for Fairwater and Pentrebane (and Ely, I have not ever heard of the Liberals working Ely before). McEvoy’s time in the Council Executive has giving him bad press lately, and his connection with the promotion of WM education will make English speakers quite wary of the party he represents, and not necessarily him. As for the Tories, they tend not to campaign in the western parts of the constituency.
Lab 51%
Con 25%
PC 17%
LD 7%
A Brown is that the last assembly result or a poll for the next one?
No I was just trying to extrapolate poll results onto this constituency, don’t know what effect Morgan’s retirement will have though.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Hold
To Morgan Rees, it is Plaid who are working Ely, not Libs! Every vote we take there is a direct one from Labour to us. There is a long way to go in this campaign. I’m enjoying it a lot. In Cardiff, Plaid is about the next few decades, not just the next election. It is undeniable that we are progressing and developing hugely in our capital city. Watch this space. It’s an interesting one!
Totally partisan & pointless post with no relation to the actual polls.