Cardiff South and Penarth
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12553 (28.29%)
Labour: 17262 (38.91%)
Liberal Democrat: 9875 (22.26%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.17%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.58%)
Green: 554 (1.25%)
Christian: 285 (0.64%)
Independent: 648 (1.46%)
Others: 196 (0.44%)
Majority: 4709 (10.62%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18506 (46.8%)
Conservative: 9387 (23.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7835 (19.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2062 (5.2%)
Other: 1780 (4.5%)
Majority: 9119 (23%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8210 (22.2%)
Labour: 17447 (47.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7529 (20.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2023 (5.5%)
Green: 729 (2%)
UKIP: 522 (1.4%)
Other: 452 (1.2%)
Majority: 9237 (25%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7807 (21.8%)
Labour: 20094 (56.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4572 (12.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 1983 (5.5%)
UKIP: 501 (1.4%)
Other: 794 (2.2%)
Majority: 12287 (34.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8766 (20.7%)
Labour: 22647 (53.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3964 (9.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1356 (3.2%)
Referendum: 1211 (2.9%)
Other: 4456 (10.5%)
Majority: 13881 (32.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alun Michael(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Simon Hoare (Conservative) Alun Michael(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Dominic Hannigan (Liberal Democrat) born Cornwall. Educated at Cape Cornwall School and Penwith College. Contested Cardiff South and Penarth at 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
Farida Aslam (Plaid Cymru) Legal advice worker for a housing association.Matthew Townsend (Green)Simon Ziegler (UKIP)Clive Bate (Christian Party) 
Robert Griffiths (Communist) General Secretary of the Communist Party of Britain. Contested Newport East 2001, Pontypridd 2005. Contested Wales 2009 European elections for No2EU.George Burke (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90593
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 26.6%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 6.8%
White: 91.1%
Black: 2%
Asian: 3.6%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 68.1%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 3.9%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.2%
Owner-Occupied: 66.6%
Social Housing: 23.1% (Council: 13.7%, Housing Ass.: 9.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
The answer Simon is cogan.
I appreciate your response it is nice to see candidates commenting on the seats they are fighting.
I think both yourselves and the Lib Dems will increase your vote at the next elections but Labour will hang on. It might be better to get some more work done in the vale where ypu can beat Labour. That maybe dissappointing to you as a candidate but i am a realist.
The friend who told me about penarth lives in Cogan and is a Labour voter so may have been lied to.
Can i just ask your opinion Simon on the Welsh Assembly attempting to force Cardiff Council to build housing on greenfield sites. I ask as it is an issue which people would like to know peoples opinion on.
Simon, I live in constituency at its very eastern end – and I have received one single piece of literature from Conservatives – but that was from Newport West (I think some of your people need to check the boundaries!!!)
In reply to the latest postings:
Dewi – George O was very good and more importantly realistic about the scale of the task ahead. We had an enjoyable day.
Richard J – the way the Council is treating green spaces eg Bute Park and Rumney Rec I think they’re on thin ice with the Assembly. I’m conscious that we need more family homes and the Vale is favouring brownfield development around Barry and I’d like to see more homes come in as ‘infill’ on futher Bay redevelopment. That said, we need to ensure that Councils provide adequate housing to continue economic growth etc. It should be, as a matter of first principles, brownfield development first and then green.
Penddu – sorry about that. if you email me at
[email protected]
and let me have your address I shall send you some stuff
Best to all
Simon
Penddu you will notice my typo on the email address. Typing too quickly. Should be
[email protected]
Glad to see you agree that it should be brownfield development first.
Apparently the assemblies planning inspector has refused to include sites with planning permission already that development has not started on in his calculations so thousands of units were left out. The council may win this one. Have a feeling there may have been some guidance from the minister on that one.
Merthyr and caerphilly are experiencing problems as well apparently with WAG and development plans.
They are non Labour run Councils as well. Not sure who the minster in charge of planning is but i get the feeling he may be interfering.
Which seat included Penarth before 1918? I think I discussed post-1918 seats upthread
Glamorganshire South
The Labour Group Leader on Cardiff Council has resigned apparently.
The Communist Party of Britain are standing their general secretary, Robert Griffiths, here – http://www.communist-party.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=762:leading-communist-to-contest-cardiff-south-and-penarth&catid=123:election-2010&Itemid=165
Lab Hold= 5,000 maj
This seats going to be a lot closer than people think and could even be the big Welsh shock on the night.
Dewi,
Could you give us an idea who will be the shock candidate
please?
I feel the Conservatives are going to do better than people think. The deomography of the seat has changed a lot, the boundaries slightly favour the tories and there is a national swing in their favour.
Thanks Dewi!
I live in this seat and I concur. Sinec the last election there has been much new housing and appartments in the bay, – and there has been a steady yuppification which will favour Conservatives and Lib Dems.
I dont thing the Conservatives will win, simply because the LDs will split their vote. FWIW I predict Lab 14k Con 12k LD 10k PC 3k
Pingback: 2010 Constituency Profile: Cardiff South and Penarth | WalesHome.org
Lab Hold
Maj 6800
Neily…some of your predictions are heading towards ‘Ian MacKintosh proportions’. This constituency will be much closer than 6800.
I agree, some of the predictions look as though they’re selected at random more than been given any real thought! This one (and your Llanelli and Arfon predictions) are the three standouts!
Lab hold maj 3000
Message for Simon Hoare:
=====================
Sorry!
I had decided I was going to vote for you (and break the habit of a lifetime) but two things have made me change my mind.
Firstly, Nick Clegg’s performance in the UK Leaders Debate has persuaded me that LDs could win in Cardiff South.
Secondly and more critically, Cheryl Gillan’s performance in the Welsh Leaders debate has convinced me that I never want to see a Conservative government.with her kind.
Sorry – Penddu
The LDs will and can not win Cardiff South. I remain at present certain of a Labour hold. The Conservatives may be enjoying a slightly larger swing in Wales than in most of England but Michael starts with twice as many votes. That’s not likely to be overcome in one go.
Whatever you say Barney – but I think you may be in for a long night on May7th…….
I thought I should add some detail to what I just said above. A few days ago I predicted that due to demographic changes as much as a Tory rise, the vote would be:
Lab 14k Con 12k LD 10k PC 3k
But if Clegg can maintain his recent momentum, then floating voters will flip from Tory and Labour to LD and I can very easily see this as a LD gain…..
Lab maj 3,500
It would be a bit more realistic to forecast a Lib/Dem win if they’d done a bit more work for this election Dominic Hannigan in previous elections where he’s stood here, has positively flooded the constituency with pamphlets – this time we’ve had two only in Penarth and Grangetown have not had many more – his former army of student distributors seem to have deserted him. So whatever the Clegg ‘bounce’ effect’ on UK trends, it’s not going to happen here..
BTW, to those people who see a vote for Plaid as ‘wasted’ remember that in the1997 election ago the Lib-Dem vote was less than 4000. I wouldn’t be surprised if Plaid reached that figure this year – and it’s the Assembly election next year where they ‘ll do even better….
And if Plaid had a TV platform like Clegg…?
It is fantastic that Nick Clegg has done so well for an amateur. However once the people of Cardiff come to realise the state Cardiff is in, after 8 years of a LD Council, we’re straight back into the good old two horse race.
Lib Dem surge seems to be holding right across Wales – I still this Lab win but it will be close
Lab 13.5k
LD 13k
Con 12.5k
PC 3,5k
We may even get into recount country if a late switch to LD occurs.
What is sad is that there are nine candidates in this constituency, but five of them are totally deprived of media coverage, and Plaid have very little. As a result we’re getting an election that has been transformed into a ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ lookalike. And because Nick Clegg’s the ‘voice of sweet reason’ and a pretty boy doesn’t make him an effective leader – even if we were electing him here. Which we’re not.
If by some strange chance LD won here, we’d get Dominic Hannigan – nice fellow, personable, but would be pressed to make a good councillor, let alone an MP.
On the evidence of the hustings in Penarth, Robert Griffiths, the veteran communist, was the most effective both in his command of issues, debating skills and in his principled (if outdated!) views. Farida Aslam showed surprising grasp for one with little experience of politicking and a good awareness of issues. Alun Michael kept harping on about his time as a youth leader and quoted all the committees he’s served on, while Simon Hoare showed himself up as a fussy knowall who may know a lot about politics, but talks too long and talks down to people. Dominic said very little, and pretty unmemorably. UKIP candidate seemed a very pleasant fellow ( for UKIP!) but said virtually nothing of note, Green Party Matthew was young, and enthusiastic but up in the air, and the Christian party candidate was a bit of a joke, even to me, a regular churchgoer.
And who’s running the best campaign in Penarth? probably, George Burke – spoke quite well at the hustings, has spent a lot on leaflets and posters, uses a good loudspeaker system on a car and knows a lot of local people. He’ll get an anti-Alun Michael protest vote which could take 2000 who might have voted LD.
Personally, I’m sticking to Farida Aslam – one for the future.
I also attended the hustings and although the communist did get best reception he seems unaware that economic growth comes from the private sector. If communism worked why do so few countries around the world adopt it?
I felt Simon Hoare spoke well on the issue of discrimination of homosexuals – using personal family experience.
Alun Michael did OK but I will never forgive him for his expenses. How can anyone even consider re-electing this liar? He paid back over £19,000! But he claims he did nothing wrong. Bad judgement to take that money in the first place. I wouldn’t trust him to look after my piggy bank!
I liked the Lib Dem guy but then I received his leaflet through the door and it was negative. Their policies weren’t thought through because they never expected to get over 25% of the national vote! People who vote LibDem because Clegg did well on the 1st debate need to realise this is a general election not a talent contest. I don’t want Clegg controlling the country in a hung parliament.
I’ll vote George Burke just because I’ve met him and he seems genuine. He will represent US rather than some party. He’s funding his own campaign so obviously not in it for the money!
Canvassing in different parts of this constituency show contrasting results. In Penarth, there seems to be a strong tide against Alun Michael – even a Labour canvasser admitted he’s been down one of the longest streets and not found one who supported him. George Burke gets a lot of support on the street and may make an unexpected impact – though he’s more likely to take away a protest vote which could otherwise have gone to one of the smaller parties.
In Grangetown, there’s still a rump faithful to Alun Michael but the ones who have developed a lot of following there are Plaid.This is partly because of the area’s disillusion with their Lib-Dem councillors who won all four seats from Labour at the last local election, but also because of increased muslim and Welsh-speaking residents moving into the ward.
However, Plaid lose out, together with Lib-Dems, in Llanrumney because of Cardiff Council’s intention to build on the playing field there. Unclear who will benefit.
Splott still seems largely Labour, but Butetown has changed its demography because of all the new apartments in the Bay, and the newer part may tend more towards Simon Hoare, who claims he lives in a house there (while still a cabinet member in West Oxfordshire!) .
Too close to call, but Simon Hoare may be edging ahead particularly in Penarth, helped also by Burke’s gaining some disillusioned Labour voters there. UKIP will pick up some votes, though kess than in previous elections, but the other four to lose their deposits
Llanrumney is in Cardiff North isnt it??
No it’s in this seat.
LAB HOLD
I stand corrected – I was thinking of Llanedeyrn.
The issue of Llanrumney playing fields/Eastern Leisure Centre might have an effect on Lib Dems as it was their policy, but I dont think it will have any effect on Plaid as they were not seen as being associated with this particular plan (unlike in Canton and Whitchurch where they were more involved)
I wouldn’t be so confident. More and more of a Conservative swing to be seen, though Labour have canvassed strongly in Llanrumney and St Mellons
By the way, new Alun Michael leaflet spotted today the first since the diastrous mispelt main election communication. Apart from use of capital letters after colons, this one seems fairly correct!
Yes – I know, there’s another ‘s’ in disastrous. It always happens when you comment on someone else’s spelling doesn’t it?
The Senedd (Welsh Assembly building) is in Butetown ward in this constituency
Am I correct in thinking that since the Westminster boundary changes, those boundaries are now co-terminous with Cardiff Bay boundaries?
In the meantime Harry all Cardiff and Westminster boundaries are co-terminous….don’t know what will happen when number of MPs reduced.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Hold