Cardiff North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.09%)
Liberal Democrat: 8724 (18.32%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.33%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.37%)
Green: 362 (0.76%)
Christian: 300 (0.63%)
Majority: 194 (0.41%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 17707 (39%)
Conservative: 16561 (36.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8483 (18.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 1936 (4.3%)
Other: 673 (1.5%)
Majority: 1146 (2.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13680 (31.6%)
Labour: 19845 (45.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6631 (15.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2471 (5.7%)
UKIP: 613 (1.4%)
Majority: 6165 (14.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16334 (33.7%)
Labour: 24460 (50.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5294 (10.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1201 (2.5%)
Referendum: 1199 (2.5%)
Majority: 8126 (16.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Cardiff North covers the affluent residential suburbs of northern Cardiff, taking in places like Heath, Lisvane, pleasant villages that have become subsumed into Cardiff like Rhiwbina and Whitchurch (home of the Welsh Conservative party) and to the north a smattering of country parks and tourist villages like Coryton and Tonywynlais.
This is is a strongly middle class area, largely Conservative at a local level (and since 2007 at the Assembly level). Until the landslide of 1997 it was held by the Conservatives at every election but 1966 and along with Aberconwy appears to be one of the two most obvious Tory targets in the principality.
At the 2005 election Catherine Taylor-Dawson, standing for Rainbow George Weiss`s Rainbow Dream Ticket party in all four Cardiff seats, managed to secure only a single vote, the record low for a Parliamentary contest.
Current MP: Jonathan Evans (Conservative) born 1950, Tredegar. Educated at Lewis School Pengam. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire 1987. MP for Brecon and Radnorshire 1992-1997. MEP for Wales since 2000.
Jonathan Evans (Conservative) born 1950, Tredegar. Educated at Lewis School Pengam. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire 1987. MP for Brecon and Radnorshire 1992-1997. MEP for Wales since 2000.
Julie Morgan(Labour) born 1944, Cardiff. Educated at Howell`s School and Kings College London. Former social worker and assistant director of Barnardos. South Glamorgan councillor 1985-1997. Cardiff councillor 1995. Contested Cardiff North 1992. First elected as MP for Cardiff North 1997. She is married to Rhodri Morgan, the First Minister of Wales. (more information at They work for you)
John Dixon (Liberal Democrat) Cardiff councillor
Llywelyn Rhys (Plaid Cymru) Christopher von Ruhland (Green) Lawrence Gwynn (UKIP)Derek Thompson (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81844
Male: 47.3%
Female: 52.7%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 95.1%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 1.3%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 73%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 1.5%
Full time students: 8.7%
Graduates 16-74: 28.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.2%
Owner-Occupied: 83.3%
Social Housing: 9.6% (Council: 6.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.4%
I agree with you there, Results. Over time it could become a semi-safe Tory seat, although they do only have a fairly small majoirty in 2010 as a starting point.
They may even gain Brecon and Radnor in 2015 if there’s a sufficient drop in the Lib Dem vote, although the 2011 assembly elections showed that to be by no means certain.
I think Aberconwy will be a fairly straightforward Labour gain. You can’t really compare the 2011 results in that seat with predictions for 2015 because Plaid are strong in that seat at Assembly level but not as Westminster level.
I also think seats like Bridgend, Delyn, Gower and Clewyd South are trending towards the Tories long term. Bridgend and Delyn will certainly be seen as Tory target seats in 2020 if the Tories do well nationally at that election (which after 5 years of the two Ed’s I think they will). Vale of Clewyd will be a harder nut to crack and it’ll be interesting to see how far the Lib Dem vote falls at Westminster level in their rural heartlands and how far the Tories and Plaid can exploit this in Powes and Credigion respectively.
I don’t believe that the two Pembrokeshire seats are as certain for the Tories as many assume here. I suspect that if the Assembly election were being held now – rather than May 2011 – Labour could well take both.
”I agree with you there, Results. Over time it could become a semi-safe Tory seat, although they do only have a fairly small majoirty in 2010 as a starting point.”
Indeed. I believe that Montgomeryshire has been trending Conservative for a fair few years now- In 2005 even though their vote share was down their numerical vote was up. They were never out of the game there, despite the fact that it took them 31 years to win it back.
I think that Opik’s mishaps couldn’t have done the Lib Dems too many favours and may well have contributed to his defeat.
And the Lib Dems now without Opik are probably just going to keep spiralling backwards in Montgomeryshire I would suspect- Yes it is traditionally a Liberal stronghold as we all know, but if the Tories keep working it hard, Glyn Davies if he wants the seat will be in there for as long as he wants to be.
Whether a successor Tory candidate could improve the vote share on the other hand is difficult to say for certain.
Some interesting observations there, Adam. Could you elaborate a bit further about those particular seats? Why would you say that seats like Delyn or Bridgend are trending Tory while others like Vale of Clwyd will be tougher to gain? Not saying you’re wrong but I’m just interested to know what sort of trends are occurring in that part of Wales.
AKMD: I guess Adam has based his view on how those seats have voted since Blair’s first landslide. In Bridgend, for example, Labour’s vote fell 22% points between 1997 and 2010, while the Tory vote increased by about 7.5% points.
I would add Alyn and Deeside to the list. Labour’s vote fell by over 22% points between 1997 and 2010 while the Tory vote increased by nearly 10% points.
I can see the Tories holding 6 Welsh seats in 2015: Montgomery, Clwyd W, the two Pembrokeshires, Monmouth and Glamorgan (though very narrowly).
AKMD, I’ve based those observations on a bit of messing around I’ve done on electoral calculus and experimenting with different scenarios. I know it’s not very scientific, but it’s useful for getting a broad idea of what’s happening in parts of the country I’m not all the familiar with.
I was surprised to see the Labour majoirities fall as low as they did in Bridgend and Delyn in 2010 and I was also surprised to see Vale of Cleyd stay Labour on a below average swing. The pensioner vote in the seaside towns of North Denbighshire didn’t have as much of an effect as I thought it would. And I think increasing social deprivation in Rhyl will continue to make it difficult seat for the Tories to take, although it’s not impossible for them to do that in an ’83 style landslide.
Regarding Alyn and Deeside, I’ve always been sceptical as to that seats potential to go Tory since it (or it’s predecessor seat of East Flintshire) hasn’t elected a Tory MP since 1945, although the Tories did almost take in it 83. So on that basis I should really class it as a marginal.
I think it’s realistically possible for the Welsh Tories to win as many as 15 Westminster seats in 2015;
Monmouth
Cardiff North
Vale of Glamorgan
Bridgend
Gower
Presili Pembrokeshire
Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Radnor
Montgomery
Alyn and Deeside
Delyn
Clwyd South
Vale of Clwyd
Clwyd West
Aberconwy.
Although I think the real number will be more likely to be about 10 or 11. Alyn and Deeside, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Gower and possilbe Brecon and Radnor are the ones they may fail to take.
This is base on an assumption that William Hague will lead the Tories to victory with a majority of about 50 in 2020 in an election contested on current boundaries.
“I think the Tories will hold 5 sears in Wales in 2015; Monmouth, Montgomery, Clewyd West and the two Pembrokeshire seats.”
Are you expecting Labour to win Aberconwy?
Looking a little deeper into the figures, the Labour majority in Delyn at the 2007 assembly elections was on 511 and was only 1,624 in 2003, so it’s certainly a seat the Tories shouldn’t write off.
‘I think it’s realistically possible for the Welsh Tories to win as many as 15 Westminster seats in 2015′
That reads as very much an extended wish list which is likely to accord very little to reality.
With the exceptions of Montgomery and Brecon & Radnor, the seats listed have been Labour in recent years. A return to zero Tory MPs in Wales is a good deal more likely than reaching 15 – not that either scenario is at all likely.
Like I said, I think they’ll win 5 seats in 2015 and a bout 10 in 2020, assuming the Tories are doing well nationally at that point.
I suspect that at a Westminster election both Pembrokeshire Tory MPs will be vulnerable to anti – Tory tactical voting by Plaid and ex LibDems.. Neither MP appears to have the personal following of their Assembly counterparts.
‘I don’t think that’s fair. He lost a parliamentary seat once, as a Tory in the nadir of 1997. I wouldn’t hold that against anybody.
As for carpet bagger he now represents a seat in the city where he attended secondary school and where he qualified as, and worked for many years as, a solicitor.’
i agree
whilst i’m not known for usually speaking in fond terms about Conservative members of parliament, jonathan evans is definitely a good egg as it were, and i hope he hangs on in 2015 – although i suspect he might not
Clearly you missed the reason why this thread has recently been revived Tim
I’m just putting the final touches to the “zombie review forum”
http://sixthperiodic.proboards.com/
I don’t know Cardiff,
although some members of my family did live there for a bit.
I guess what happened is Labour lost a fair number of votes in 2005, but that put them near their core, although I take Barnaby’s point – he seems to be indicating few traditional Labour areas, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t core voters elsewhere in the seat in significant numbers.
I did expect the Tories to gain this more easily though. I suspect Julie Morgan is fairly popular.
I would guess about half the Lib Dem vote is up for grabs here – although it should be noted that Plaid C, the Greens and UKIP all did rather poorly in 2010 and could improve.
The Tories will need to turn out some extra votes to hold on here.
With respect to HH, I don’t think his remarks about Jonathon Evans are entirely fair.
He gained the Brecon and Radnor seat in 1992, which was a good year for the Tories, but one where our majority was cut,
lost in 1997 as most people did,
was a Euro MP,
and returned here, where he has connections, albeit with a low swing.
I remember him as an effective Minister towards the end of the 1997 Government.
Indeed. Anyone judging solely on the basis of Hemmelig’s remarks could be forgiven for thinking that Evans didn’t stick around to refight Brecon having lost narrowly in ’87, and that when he decided on a comeback to Westminster he’d run away to some Tory dead cert in the home counties.
Hemmelig’s posts are usually engaging, but he does jump on the odd slightly bonkers hobby horse, as when he argued that a Derbyshire/Yorkshire boundary running south of Sheffield could be any more sensible than the current one. This is another example.
That should say “a Derbyshire/Yorkshire boundary running south of Dronfield”.
Looking at the other comments on this thread it seams likely that the middle class nature of the seat is a more likely explanation for the slightly unspectacular Tory performance than any shortcomings Evans might have as a candidate. The MORI figures I’ve cited on here before show middle class Tory support at the last GE virtually the same as in 1997.
Yes, I don’t know why HH decides to go out of his way to attack Tories in this rather personal way
when he actually speaks a lot of sense /knowledge on other occasions which I suspect we all benefit from.
“Hemmelig’s posts are usually engaging, but he does jump on the odd slightly bonkers hobby horse”
Well we all have our bonkers hobby horses Kieran….for example do you remember that idiot who was insisting that the Tories were going to gain council seats in Chesterfield, much to the deserved ridicule of Mark Senior and others?
“I don’t know why HH decides to go out of his way to attack Tories in this rather personal way”
Why should Conservatives be immune from criticism? After the many arguments I’ve had on here with Robin Hood, Merseymike, Kokopops etc you can’t seriously be suggesting that I’m some kind of leftie? Nevertheless to me there’s nothing more ridiculous than blind devotion to one party or another.
“Well we all have our bonkers hobby horses Kieran….for example do you remember that idiot who was insisting that the Tories were going to gain council seats in Chesterfield, much to the deserved ridicule of Mark Senior and others?”
Ho ho!
I may yet be vindicated in this year’s county council elections though. The extensive boundary changes have drawn up a division that could scarcely be more winnable from a Tory point of view, with a boundary drawn tightly around the most expensive property area in the town.
I hope you’re right.