Cardiff Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7799 (21.57%)
Labour: 10400 (28.77%)
Liberal Democrat: 14976 (41.43%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.45%)
UKIP: 765 (2.12%)
Green: 575 (1.59%)
TUSC: 162 (0.45%)
Monster Raving Loony: 142 (0.39%)
Independent: 86 (0.24%)
Majority: 4576 (12.66%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 17991 (49.8%)
Labour: 12398 (34.3%)
Conservative: 3339 (9.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1271 (3.5%)
Other: 1133 (3.1%)
Majority: 5593 (15.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5537 (15.9%)
Labour: 13451 (38.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 12792 (36.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 1680 (4.8%)
UKIP: 221 (0.6%)
Green: 661 (1.9%)
Other: 500 (1.4%)
Majority: 659 (1.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8470 (20%)
Labour: 18464 (43.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 10541 (24.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1504 (3.6%)
Referendum: 760 (1.8%)
Other: 2514 (5.9%)
Majority: 7923 (18.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jenny Willott(Liberal Democrat) born 1974, Wimbledon. Educated at Wimbledon High School and Uppingham School and Durham University. Former researcher to Lembit Opik. Merton councillor 1998-2000. Contested Cardiff Central 2001. First elected as MP for Cardiff Central 2005. Youth affairs spokesman 2006-2008, justice spokesman since 2008 (more information at They work for you)
Karen Robson (Conservative) Contested Cardiff South & Penarth 2007, Wales in 2009 Euro Elections.
Jenny Rathbone (Labour) former Islington councillor.Jenny Willott(Liberal Democrat) born 1974, Wimbledon. Educated at Wimbledon High School and Uppingham School and Durham University. Former researcher to Lembit Opik. Merton councillor 1998-2000. Contested Cardiff Central 2001. First elected as MP for Cardiff Central 2005. Youth affairs spokesman 2006-2008, justice spokesman since 2008 (more information at They work for you)Chris Williams (Plaid Cymru) Sam Coates (Green) Sue Davies (UKIP)Ross Saunders (TUSC)Mark Beech (Official Monster Raving Loony) Alun Mathias (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 73754
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 17.8%
Over 60: 15.7%
Born outside UK: 10.9%
White: 89.4%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 5.7%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 60.9%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 5.3%
Full time students: 24.9%
Graduates 16-74: 29.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19%
Owner-Occupied: 63.4%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 5%, Housing Ass.: 6.9%)
Privately Rented: 21.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.7%
I think it is a long shot but very much possible Dalek.
It depends entirley on what happens between now and the election. The student vote may fall away from the Lib Dems (It is always much lower in Assembly elections anyway), and loss of incumbent and inpopularity in Government may be the Lib Dems downfall. Labour will still need a stronn candidate and good campaign to win here though.
Latest August ITV Wales/ Yougov poll shows Lib Dems on 10% their lowest Welsh Assembly polling share ever!
“Hornsey is more precarious and could go back to Labour and I think Manchester Withington and Bristol West will. But i’m sure theyre safe in Cambridge and here at the next election.
They would have lost Brent East too but as it is boundary changes have eliminated it and Teather has bugger all chance in Brent Central.”
Remember these words of wisdom when you hear the prediction of LibDem wipeout at the next election.
But that was when people thought they would lose due to a low profile. Now everyone knows who Nick Clegg is and what he and the remainder of his party stand for, there’s no way to avoid a wipeout.
Indeed. And at the times those wise words were written Ming Campbell was leader, and the wise person who wrote them was considering the political landscape three years ago and no doubt revised his/her forecast for a number of those places as the election drew nearer
Pete
Do you know who the wise person was?
I wouldn’t have described them as wise without checking who it was first!
It was your his/her phrase that baffled me!
My point being that even the wisest and most knowledgeable commenters can make predictions that turn out to be rash.
There’s a lot that will happen before the next election and though general demographic trends in certain areas can still be predicted now not much else can be.
Over a generation, political history shows that all three major, UK, parties, can win here. I wouldn’t rule any party out for the future.
For cultural reasons, e.g. proximity to television studios, the Welsh speking community has tended to live in Cardiff West rather than areas of this seat like Cathays which are quite similar in social terms and in terms of housing stock. However, I could see Plaid improving here if all three other major parties become unpopular or if they continue to offer similarly unattractive policies on things like higher education. It is also clear that the Plaid vote here is seriously depressed by tactical voting, and if AV were introduced at Westminster level this could change.
When discussing this seat, don’t forget the large, transient, student vote. The LibDems won not inconsiderably because of their higher education policy, and if their record in the ConDem coalition is poor in relation to universities they could rapidly lose support here (and in places like Cambridge). Not least because at each election they have to appeal to a new generation of student voters, who as first time voters do not usually have the baggage of past political commitments.
Individual voter registration could have major implications for student voting, which we psephologists need to think about.
Cardiff Central 2011
LD 44%
Lab 35%
Con 12%
PC 9%
Prediction 2011
Lab 38%
Lib 29%
Con 17%
others 16%
The news that the Welsh Assembly will be meeting the extra costs for students has swung this seat into Labours favour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11878033
Certainly could be volatile this seat but possibly a labour longshot, I don’t know.
As for the welsh lib dems, I have know idea how things will work out for them in terms of list seats. Maybe they will end up with 4/5 seats overall?
If that YouGov poll is correct, it would be more like 2 seats in total, and Cardiff central would certainly go Labour.
That poll shows the LDs getting beaten in 3 regions by UKIP and in North Wales by both UKIP and the Communist Party.
Could see the Lib Dems retaining the Assembly seat but the Westminster seat could fall!
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Gain
The rumour is that Labour is marginally ahead of the LDs. Recounts going on.
Labour gain by 38 votes on 15% swing.
The Liberal Democrats should have held this seat in the Welsh Assembly elections but for Nick Clegg’s unpopularity with students though many of them were still on Easter vacation on May 7th. Their campaigning was overkill allowing Jenny Rathbone who spends more time in London than in Cardiff to take the seat.
Having recently visited a family friend i am now aware of a row ensuing within the Cardiff Central Tory Party. Apparently on Election day Tories were running around the Cyncoed and Penylan area delivering leaflets and knocking doors urging people to vote Conservative and telling people that the Lib Dems were safe and not going to lose the seat.
This allowed Labour to win and activity here rather than Cardiff north meant they lost north and allowed Labour to take this seat as well. A lot of tory voters are very angry apparently that they have a Labour M.P.
This may mean that at the next general election Conservatives will not be running around Cardiff Central but all put into Cardiff North.
That could swing the seat back towards a narrow Lib Dem win.
At the moment one would expect Labour to win a Westminster election in Cardiff Central. However, if the boundary changes do go ahead the seat might disappear altogether, or if it remains will be greatly altered. The territory which borders the present constituency is less good for the LDs than anywhere within the present seat & a Labour gain would look very likely unless the pendulum swings a long way back towards the LDs.
Has present-day Cathays ward in this constituency (which includes among other landmarks Cardiff Castle and the RC Cathedral) been in
Cardiff to 1918
Cardiff Central 1918-50
Cardiff South East 1950-83
Cardiff Central since 1983
Has present-day Cathays ward (which includes among other places Cardiff Castle and the RC Cathedral) been in
Cardiff to 1918
Cardiff Central 1918-50
Cardiff South East 1950-83
Cardiff Central since 1983
Has present-day Cathays ward in this constituency (which includes Cardiff Castle and the RC Cathedral) been in
Cardiff to 1918
Cardiff Central 1918-50
Cardiff South East 1950-83
Cardiff Central since 1983?
Since 1885 which seats have contained the area covered by Cathays ward?
Since 1885 which constituencies have included the area covered by Cathays ward?
Harry I think you have already answered your own question. I can’t improve on what you’ve said myself and it doesn’t look like anyone else is going to come forward
Harry – how’s the book going?
‘Harry – how’s the book going?’
LOL I’m not writing it!! If only Wikipedia’s constituency pages gave historic boundaries as well as the present ones, most of them only seem to list the latter which is somewhat annoying for those like myself who want to know what they were!!