Cannock Chase
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18271 (40.1%)
Labour: 15076 (33.09%)
Liberal Democrat: 7732 (16.97%)
BNP: 2168 (4.76%)
UKIP: 1580 (3.47%)
Independent: 473 (1.04%)
Others: 259 (0.57%)
Majority: 3195 (7.01%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21325 (50.9%)
Conservative: 12670 (30.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5832 (13.9%)
Other: 2086 (5%)
Majority: 8655 (20.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12912 (29.9%)
Labour: 22139 (51.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5934 (13.8%)
UKIP: 2170 (5%)
Majority: 9227 (21.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12345 (30.1%)
Labour: 23049 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5670 (13.8%)
Majority: 10704 (26.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14227 (27.2%)
Labour: 28705 (54.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4537 (8.7%)
Referendum: 1663 (3.2%)
Other: 3234 (6.2%)
Majority: 14478 (27.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Aidan Burley (Conservative) Born 1979, New Zealand.
Aidan Burley (Conservative) Born 1979, New Zealand.Susan Woodward (Labour) Jon Hunt (Liberal Democrat)Malcolm McKenzie (UKIP)Terence Majorowicz (BNP) Malcom McKenzie (Get Snouts out the Trough)Mike Walters (Independent)Ron Turville (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92126
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 18.6%
Born outside UK: 2%
White: 98.6%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 80.8%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 10.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.7%
Social Housing: 19.3% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 2.8%)
Privately Rented: 4.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%
About 87% for the 2 main parties is quite likely here.
GE most likely
Lab 41.5 (+8.5)
Con 39.1 (-1.0)
LD 9.5 (-7.5)
UKIP 4.4
others 5.5
I think turnout could plausibly rise to 65% here.
If there happens to be a big swing to Labour at the next general election, it would be interesting to see if it’s disproportionately high here, after such a large rightwards swing last time. This seat has in the past, in its various incarnations, seen large swings to the right in winning years (1970 & 1983 in particular) only to see Labour recover its position in the medium term. There has been a longterm demographic drift to the right though, as in many non-metropolitan areas close to large cities with past connections with mining, just as in Aldridge-Brownhills next door, and it’s possible that Labour will not be able to make this seat a safish one again as it has been in the past. Burley’s antics may help Labour a bit but if he’s been a reasonably active local MP it won’t make a lot of difference.
Hard one to predict for sure
If something like
Con 37.5
Lab 36
Lib 18
then id see this seat as
Con 43
Lab 40
Lib 10
Although Burley’s antics will probably cost him some Lab/Con swing voters, there is a large BNP and UKIP vote here and he will probably take some of that for his very un-PC behaviour.
I personally think the most likely election result nationally in 2015 is:
Lab 37
Con 36
LD 15
On those results this seat will be a toss up
Comparing Cannock to the national result since 1974, ignoring boundary changes which haven’t been very important in terms of changing the result politically – (although the towns of Rugeley and Burntwood have been swapped twice they aren’t enormously different from each other in voting terms):
Feb 1974: Lab 23.9%, UK = Con 0.7%
Oct 1974: Lab 28.4%, UK = Lab 3.4%
1979: Lab 15.5%, UK = Con 7.0%
1983: Con 4.0%, UK = Con 14.8%
1987: Con 4.9%, UK = Con 11.4%
1992: Lab 2.5%, UK = Con 7.5%
1997: Lab 27.6%, UK = Lab 12.5%
2001: Lab 26.0%, UK = Lab 9.0%
2005: Lab 21.4%, UK = Lab 2.8%
2010: Con 7.0%, UK = Con 7.1%
So:
Feb 1974: +Lab 24.6%
Oct 1974: +Lab 25.0%
1979: +Lab 22.5%
1983: +Lab 10.8%
1987: +Lab 6.5%
1992: +Lab 10.0%
1997: +Lab 15.1%
2001: +Lab 17.0%
2005: +Lab 18.6%
2010: +Lab 0.1%
Unless the changes have been very rapid since 2005, there isn’t much evidence of a consistent demographic shift to the Tories there.
More an indication of a seat with a lot of typical swing voters, which is normally Labour but is capable of going Conservative in Labour’s worst years.
It’s probably true that Tony Wright did have quite a big personal vote though.
I think Labour are going to win this back in 2015.
Good news for Aiden Burley: the white population of Cannock Chase only dropped very slightly from 98.6% to 97.8%.
Cannock Chase has the third lowest percentage of Jewish people with 9 people out of population of 97,462 just ahead of Hyndburn and Merthyr Tydfil.
Maybe so, but I doubt if his dressing up in a Nazi uniform will endear him to his 97,453 constituents who are not Jewish either. I add that purely as an observation – with my Chronic Fatigue Syndrome I cannot afford another prolonged debate on race relations!
I suspect most people, especially in seats like this, appreciate having a patriotic MP but the question is whether Aiden Burley’s particular brand of patriotism chimes with them. Regardless, it should be an interested seat to watch – I’m sure the TV cameras will be there on the big night.
Could someone please provide a link to the website where all of this constituency/ward census data is available? Thanks.
The ward census data isn’t available yet. I think it’s being released on 30th January.
Link for the local authority data:
ht tp://bit.ly/Uz3THP
Has anyone made a list of those areas which have had the most / least demographic change and then cross referenced it with recent electoral changes?
No because as Andy says the ward data is not yet available and until it is its not worthwhile to embark on such a project
It is now!
The revelations about the local hospitals put Aidan Burley’s comments about the Olympic opening ceremony in a different light.
Rather a difference between the killing fields his constituents experienced and the Nuremburg style propaganda shown to the world.
Aidan Burley voted in favour of gay marriage.