Cambridgeshire South East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27629 (47.97%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 21683 (37.64%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.71%)
Green: 766 (1.33%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.85%)
Majority: 5946 (10.33%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 24532 (47.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 16359 (31.8%)
Labour: 10574 (20.5%)
Other: 0 (0%)
Majority: 8173 (15.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26374 (47%)
Labour: 11936 (21.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 17750 (31.7%)
Majority: 8624 (15.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22927 (44.2%)
Labour: 13714 (26.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13937 (26.9%)
UKIP: 1308 (2.5%)
Majority: 8990 (17.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24397 (42.9%)
Labour: 15048 (26.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 14246 (25.1%)
Referendum: 2838 (5%)
Other: 278 (0.5%)
Majority: 9349 (16.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: James Paice(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
James Paice(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)John Cowan (Labour) Jonathan Chatfield (Liberal Democrat) Simon Sedgwick-Jell (Green)Andy Monk (UKIP)Daniel Bell (CPA)Geoffrey Woollard (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 101227
Male: 49.4%
Female: 50.6%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 7.1%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 73.6%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 25.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.5%
Owner-Occupied: 72.6%
Social Housing: 14.5% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 9%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.4%
I think the Tories are going to be in for a uncomfortably close result here now that the Labour candidate has been effectively disowned by the party.
The anti-Tory vote is usually very evenly divided and the LDs only need a swing of 7.84% to win, which the current polls show is possible.
I hadn’t previously considered this seat as a LD possible – but I do now! However, the Tory MP is well respected, so I still think a narrow CON HOLD.
Prediction: Labour will withdraw its advice to vote Labour, within 48 hours. No other candidate will be endorsed.
David, an interesting thought. Are you suggesting Labour will get an attack of principles, or do you think that they will calculate there to be more party advantage from increasing the slim chance of LDs beating Tories here than there is from them getting the 8,000-odd votes that might just make the difference between whether they finish 2nd or 3rd in terms of vote share nationally?
Labour candidate suspended. But apparantly, Labour still hopes people ‘hold their noses and vote for him’!
Labour are not doing very well with all these loony candidates this year are they! Has something gone wrong with their selection procedures?
Still, perhaps they hope all their voters ill tactically back the Lib Dems instead?
“Still, perhaps they hope all their voters ill tactically back the Lib Dems instead?”
That might well happen. It’s certainly a very worrying prospect.
I guess the key for the Tories is to confirm their 2005 share. If they do, they should hold (Lab-UKIP-Green should poll 5% all summed together). Otherwise, they’re at mercy of events (the collapse of Lab vote)
I expect the Labour candidate will try his luck with the Tories next…… they’d be very silly to accept him though.
This should be a comfortable Tory hold, even with the LDs picking up the lion’s share of the Labour voters.
In general, in East Anglia, the Tory vote is holding up well, and in my view, only a a handful of Tory seats are vulnerable to the LD surge here.
Ben – the latter (obviously).
Just checking!
“(Lab-UKIP-Green should poll 5% all summed together)”
Do you really think Labour’s shre will go that low Andrea? I would have expect their vote to collapse here towards 10% anyway and not sure it will go much below that just because of this. Going on local elections this has always been a seat witth some strong LD potential and if they were ever to squeeze the Labour vote they could be in contention here if the Tories were in trouble nationally. I hadnt thought those latter conditions applied to this election but cannot be so sure now
Pete – this could be a constituency whereby Labour voters might flock in droves to the Lib Dems in order to oust the Conservatives. I don’t believe that a Labour lost deposit is too unrealistic. I also think that Labour might not be too disappointed if the Lib Dems won here and they lost their deposit
Pete, no, I didn’t have a proper thought on how much Labour can fall here. I was just pointing out (probably not with the best wording) that the “not Con/LD” vote will be over 5% IMO and so polling 47.7% again should be enough to win the seat.
On the other hand, if they go down to low 40′s, they’re at mercy of LD/Lab voting split.
Not sure if I’ve explained it well. Sorry.
Having been working for the Conservatives in this constituency, it appears to me that the Conservative vote is increasing. Jim Paice is a very well respected MP, and his opponents are not that well known.
Labour will poll about ten per cent, UKIP and others about 3 – 5%. I think that Jim will get over 50% of the vote.
@ Colin Barker
You wrote:
Labour will poll about ten per cent, UKIP and others about 3 – 5%. I think that Jim will get over 50% of the vote.
__________________________________________
From where will his 50% come though? If Labour do poll just 10% then your prediction relies upon a fall in the LD vote too to my mind. I also think you underestimate the size of the UKIP vote you will see. No, I predict a reduced majority of around 2-3,000.
There are Lib Dems coming across to the Conservatives, particularly this last week when the Lib Dems policies on Europe and Immigration have been digested by the electorate.
As for UKIP, their candidate could not even be bothered to turn up for the hustings last Friday.
I live in the constituency, and I can tell you it looks like it will be a close-run contest. At the 2009 local elections the Tories lost a huge number of votes to the Lib Dems. There is a Conservative controlled council, and they have angered a huge number of people with the disastrous guided bus scheme, which is still yet to open, so a huge number of people are angry at the Tories about this. The Lib Dem candidate is well-known, and has been putting up easily the biggest leafleting campaign, and they have worked the hardest to get their message across. Jim Paice, the incumbent Tory, has also shown signs of fear at the possible Lib Dem surge- he knew about what the Labour candidate had done for months and didn’t release the story, he made it very clear to people at a hustings that people could still vote Labour. I can’t say what will happen for sure, of course- my view is limited to my locality within this constituency, but I do think it will be an interesting one to watch.
Just to add to that, there is an (albeit rather dotty) independent candidate running here, who is a former Conservative member who worked with Jim Paice. There is a chance that he will take some of the Conservative votes, though he does come across as a bit eccentric at the hustings!
I spent yesterday with Jim Paice on a whistle stop canvassing tour of the villages in my locality, seven in all. Now this area is a fairly good Conservative area, but even i was suprised at the positive reaction on the doorsteps. Now that the election is almost upon us, the people seem to be making up their minds to vote Conservative. Now that the Lib Dems immigration and Europe policy have sunk in, there were many comments about how ‘crazy’ (most people’s reaction) they were.
By the way, not once was the Labour guys situation mentioned on the doorsteps, and Labour voters (I know where many of them live) still intend to vote for their party.
Time and time again it was said to us that ‘you are the only one’s we’ve seen’.
As i commented to one of my compatriats at the end of the day, ‘It’s looking good for Jim’.
Hello Colin I think you were the Tory candidate for Market Ward in Cambridge when I was an undergraduate. I voted Labour but the Liberals won as always. Same guy I presume?
CON HOLD
Hi Barnaby. No, not Market, but Romsey Ward. (Little Red Russia it was called in those days – how things change!)
Then represented Cherryhinton for four years before moving back to Romsey. Now living in South East Cambs.
Ben, I must disagree with you about the Conservative share of the vote in last year’s County elections. Whilst the Conservatives lost two seats, one was in South Cambridgeshire, (Andrew Lansley’s seat) and the other was one of these strange two member wards, half in South and half in South East Cambs – and that was only lost by a whisker. The Conservatives, however, won two seats from the Lib Dems – Burwell and the second Soham seat – which are both in Jim Paice’s seat. Linton, long seen as a Lib Dem stronghold, was almost won, failing by only 70 votes. In most, if not all (Bar Histon) seats the Conservatives had an increased share of the vote. The original instigator of the Guided Bus saw her majority rise from @ 200 to over 600. On top of that , Ely North, another Lib Dem former stronghold, almost fell. Again, only 70 votes.
Having spent the day with Jim Paice yesterday around the Fulbourn area, it was, even by my standards, an excellent day. The support was good, and on doorstep after doorstep ‘you are the only one’s we’ve seen’ was repeated. Not once was the Labour candidates situation mentioned, and most Labour voters (and i tend to know where they are on my ‘patch’) are staying with Labour.
What seems to be being forgotten is that in this election, people are voting for a Government, and not a local councillor. All in all, an excellent day, and i confidently predict the Jim Paice will have a comfortable majority.
I tried to sketch Ely cathedral 11 months ago, but I didn’t get very far.
It’s a huge task,
and this nice but rather talkative man with learning difficulties kept coming up and asking what I was doing, and advising me how to draw.
Then it got a bit cold, over the fens. (although I don’t usually mind).
I was disappointed to see that the LDs held the two County Council seats in Ely in 2009.
Clearly, the big drop in Liberal/LD support in Cambridgshire NE from 1987 onwards has not been replicated in Ely itself.
Ely N&E was just missed after a huge swing which reduced the majority from over 800 and nearly 20% in 2005 to less than 60 and 25 in 2009. Both Ely seats looked pretty safe for the LDs on paper, but the Conservatives had done well there in 2007 so there may have been some hope of gaining the county seats (or one of them anyway). They did gain seats in Littleport and Soham though. Littleport was part of the old Isle of Ely seat (and still is in Cambs NE)
Should read ‘reduced the majority from over 800 and nearly 20% in 2005 to less than 60 and 2% in 2009
It may be that Ely itself will be moved back with NE Cambs in the forthcoming boundary review. Cambridgeshire is a bit large now for 7 seats even on the larger quota and Norfolk is too small for its existing 9. Together though they can retain 16 seats and the obvious way to breach the county boundary would be to link Wisbech with some surrounding areas to a Norfolk seat. This would leave Cambs NE needing to take extra voters and Ely would fit the bill. This would I think leave Soham as the largest town in this constituency – probably one of the smallest largest towns in any constituency in the country
Interesting prospect.
I guess that would make Cambridgshire NE a seat where the LDs would have more chance of retaining second place (distantly)
but make Cambridgshire SE a somewhat safer Con seat.
They’d both be totally safe, though, whatever permutation one came up with. Only one which somehow split the city of Cambridge in 2 & mixed the halves up with rural & semi-rural surrounding areas would alter that, and I don’t think that would be at all sensible.
Pete’s point about Wisbech is interesting.
I guess that is a place where Labour could expect to run second vs the LDs
in all but a bad year.
If it went into NW Norfolk, that would be a slightly less safe Con seat perhaps, assuming Labour did ridiculously badly there last time, not to be repeated.
Labour usually polls well enough in (King’s) Lynn to give the party a respectable vote in NW Norfolk, but although there are other areas where there is a bit of a Labour vote (some even rural), it isn’t usually enough to win. NW Norfolk was one of the few marginal seats actually to swing from Lab to Con between February & October 1974 and was of course a rare Conservative gain in 2001. Probably Labour will recover quite a bit at some point, but it’s a toughie and a half to win.
‘NW Norfolk was one of the few marginal seats actually to swing from Lab to Con between February & October 1974 and was of course a rare Conservative gain in 2001.’
Unlike some of their other unexpected gains in 97, Norfolk North West (or rather the old seat of Kings Lynn) did at least have a Labour tradition, with the party capable to winning it when they had a majority
i always see the cambridgeshire county seats as far more affluent that norfolk’s although the similarity is that Labour have had little luck in replicating their relative electoral msuccess of the 1950s and 60s and i’m not sure whether it can all be put down to the decline of the agrarian working class
“NW Norfolk was one of the few marginal seats actually to swing from Lab to Con between February & October 1974 and was of course a rare Conservative gain in 2001.”
As pointed out by Robert Waller in his Almanac, Norfolk do different. Of course an explanation would be the overall long-term decline of Labour in these rural areas since the 1960s.
Pete, (or anyone),
please could you do an estimate of how the vast Cambridgeshire seat of 1979 voted in 2010?
Tim is right in that most of Rural Cambridgeshire is, by and large, far more affluent than Rural Norfolk.
Some of Rural Norfolk is actually still quite poor according to the IMD. While pretty, Rural Norfolk lacks the strong knowledge and IT-led economy of Cambridgeshire and Cambs’ fast links to London.
That makes sense.
I like Cambridgshire.
Don’t know Norfolk that well apart from the North West seat, but did once go along the coast to Cromer, or nearby. I’m sure it’s also interesting.
I think Tim’s right by & large, but I think that NE Cambridgeshire is rather poor for a Southern rural seat – well fairly Southern anyway. The other Cambs county seats are indeed generally more prosperous than their Norfolk counterparts.
Yes NE Cambs is far more like Norfolk whereas the two rural seats in the south of the county are heavily influenced by commuters to Cambridge and, to an extent, London.
Joe – I think i’m right in saying that the old Cambridgeshire seat consisted of the whole of this seat minus Ely, Stretham and Haddenham and the whole of South Cambridgeshire minus Queen Edith’s ward. The electorate would be about 135,000 now. Both the areas which would be excluded are the strongest LD areas in their respective seats so a rough guess would be that the Conservative majority would be only slightly lower than the combined majority in the two seats – probably about 13,000 and with the Conservatives winning about 49% to the LD’s 35%
Thanks Pete,
very interesting.
So just copying down the figures from the actual Cambridgshire seat below,
if it was about C 49 LD 35 last year
that still represents a substantial swing from Con and Lab towards LD since 1979
” Cambridgshire had no changes to it’s boundaries in force from 1974.
So direct comparisons are possible….
1970
Con 32,264 54.6%
Lab 19,993 33.8
Lib 6,861 11.6
February 1974
Con 32,638 47.0%
Liberal 18,826 27.1
Labour 17,930 25.8
October 1974
Con 30,508 47.5%
Labour 17,853 27.8%
Liberal 15,841 24.7%
1979
Con 41,218 56.5%
Labour 17,929 24.6%
Liberal 13,780 18.9% “
The Conservtives are down about 7% compared with 1979 which is about in line with the national position (a bit better if you consider it as a proportion of their share), and a fair chunk of that is taken by UKIP. But Labour have lost around two thirds of their vote share even compared with their poor 1979 result and three quarters of their 1970 share. They couldn’t muster even 10,000 votes in a seat with 135,000 voters. A number of the small towns in both these constituencies (but particularly this one) harboured a substantial Labour vote until recently – Sawston, Soham, Cottenham, Histon, Fulbourn