Cambridgeshire South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 20157 (34.13%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.17%)
Green: 1039 (1.76%)
Independent: 1968 (3.33%)
Majority: 7838 (13.27%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 24146 (44.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 15919 (29.4%)
Labour: 11123 (20.6%)
Other: 2870 (5.3%)
Majority: 8226 (15.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 23676 (45%)
Labour: 10189 (19.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 15675 (29.8%)
Green: 1552 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1556 (3%)
Majority: 8001 (15.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 21387 (44.2%)
Labour: 11737 (24.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12984 (26.9%)
UKIP: 875 (1.8%)
Green: 1182 (2.4%)
Other: 176 (0.4%)
Majority: 8403 (17.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22572 (42%)
Labour: 13485 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 13860 (25.8%)
Referendum: 3300 (6.1%)
Other: 466 (0.9%)
Majority: 8712 (16.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Andrew Lansley(Conservative) Secretary of State for Health since 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Lansley(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Tariq Sadiq (Labour) Development manager at Downing College. Cambridge councillor since 2007.Sebastian Kindersley (Liberal Democrat) Simon Saggers (Green)Helene Davies-Green (UKIP)Robin Page (Independent Leave the EU Alliance)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95104
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 8.1%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.1%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 72.7%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.5%
Owner-Occupied: 76.3%
Social Housing: 14.2% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 2.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
The Lib Dems gained that Hardwick ward county council seat last November, with 1369 votes to 1169 for the Conservative candidate and 208 for Labour (Turnout 36%).
It will be interesting if they can hold on to the seat in the regular election in June – which may have a higher turnout. There will be a Green party candidate standing in the ward in June as well as the 3 major parties.
As far as the parliamentary seat is concerned, I can’t see it being anything other than a Conservative hold at the next election.
The Greens have selected Simon Saggers here
Which seats has Grantchester been in since 1885?
Which seats have contained Grantchester since 1885?
Re Badger’s comment earlier this year , the LibDems held Hardwick with a much increased majority 1881 to 1091 votes . They also gained Melbourne and Cottenham/Histon ( which is split with SE Cambs . There was a marked diversity in the behavior of the CC wards . Some showed a very big swing to Conservatives , others relatively no swing and others a movement to the LibDems .
‘Which seats have included Grantchester’
Further to my above query, I have discovered through Wikipedia that Grantchester was in the old division of Chesterton for the whole of its existence, after which an educated guess would be that it was in the Cambridgeshire county division which was in place until 1983, and after that SW Cambs until 1997. Is this correct?
I have a feeling that it was in SE Cambs from 1983 until 1997. But I could be wrong.
Barnaby, in Andrew Lansley’s maiden speech he refers to Sir Anthony Grant and no one else, which is what I based my theory on
It was in Cambridgeshire SW. The boundary between Cambs SE and Cambs SW/S did not change in 1997 south of Cambridge (and anyway Grantchester is to the west of Cambridge). Cambs S did take some wards north of Cambridge from Cambs SE to compensate for the loss of the southern part of Huntingdonshire to the new Huntingdon seat
Should have known that – I am a Cambridge man. Duh.
UKIP’s candidate is Helene Davies-Green.
Cons Hold= 11,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 10400
C hold maj 14000
More like Conservative majority 7000
Con maj 12,000
CON HOLD
As his website says he’s well-respected for his knowledge of the NHS.So much so that he personally appointed 10 new midwives at Milton Keynes. INot a team player I feel.
Has Wimpole been in the same constituencies as Grantchester, ie:
Chesterton 1885-1918
Cambridgeshire 1918-83
Cambridgeshire South West 1983-97
Cambridgeshire South 1997-present
Disappointing result for Mr Lansley. The Lib Dems are starting to get uncomfortably close.
The Coalition may mean natural Labour supporters become less willing to tactically vote Lib Dem (though if they want to see the incumbent Tory MP defeated they have little choice).
Random facts for the tiny number of people who’ll visit this thread who may find them slightly interesting….
I think Andrew Lansley holds the record (for the ’97 – 2010 period) for a Tory MP shadowing a single porfolio for the longest continuous period of time (one month short of 6 years; 2004 – 2010).
Dominic Grieve comes close, as Shadow Attorney General (two months short of 6 years; 2003 – 2009).
If David Davis hadn’t resigned in 2008 there’s a good chance he could’ve claimed this particular honour. If he’d been Shadow Home Secretary up to this year’s election, he’d have held the post for 6 years 6 months (2003 – 2010). I wonder if he regrets resigning at all?
If we include Peers in the equation then Lord Strathclyde beats everyone, having been Shadow Leader of the House of Lords for 11 years and 5 months; 1998 – 2010!
Lord Strathclyde casts a pretty big shadow, too.
There quite a few big shadows in the House of Lords, so you need one which can command the stage.
Re: Andrew Lansley’s tenure as Shadow Health Secretary. Some sources say he got the job in 2003, some say 2004, I thought I’d play it safe and say 2004.
However… I only had the simple idea of checking the Conservative Party’s website after I’d posted the above comment.
S*d’s law being as it is (please excuse my bad language), it says he became Shadow Health Sec in 2003 (though it doesn’t say what month).
I’ve been making too many errors lately… I need a holiday
Slightly disappointing result here,
as the Tory vote dropped 16% in 1997 and is still therefore 11% down on 1992,
but it’s hard to see how Labour could go any lower.
I wonder what the May local elections will be like nationally.
Labour could gain about 1,500 seats even if the Tories also do relatively well.
Wards of the old Cambridgeshire South West which existed from 1983 to 1997:
Cambridge City Council: Queen Edith’s, Trumpington.
Huntingdon District Council: Buckden, Eaton Ford, Eaton Socon, Eynesbury, Gransden, Paxton, Priory Park, Staughton, The Offords.
South Cambridgeshire District Council: Arrington, Barrington and Shepreth, Barton, Bassingbourn, Bourn, Comberton, Duxford, Foxton, Gamlingay, Great Shelford, Hardwick, Harston, Haslingfield, Ickleton, Little Shelford, Melbourn, Meldreth, Orwell, Papworth, Sawston, Stapleford, The Mordens, Whittlesford.
In 1945 the Cambrideshire seat was won by the Labour candidate Alfred Stubbs by 44 votes. It went back to the Conservatives in 1950 by 2,800.
again proof that there used to be a large rural Labour vote particularly in East Anglia.
There’s a by-election tomorrow in Bourn, (South Cambs DC).
2010 result:
C – 1,935 (46.0%)
LD – 1,670 (39.7%)
Lab – 425 (10.1%)
UKIP – 180 (4.3%)
Electorate – 5,582
Total votes – 4,210
Turnout – 75.4%
‘again proof that there used to be a large rural Labour vote particularly in East Anglia.’
ther certainly did – but it was always most prominent in norfolk – the most working class county in east anglia
Labour didn’t do too bad in Norfolk in 97 and came close to winning seats that had looked rock-solid for the Conservatives in 92
But in Cambridgeshire they came nowhere near to challenging the Tories in any of the county seats
whatever happened to that vote
In rural Cambs, Labour in 1997 did best in NE Cambs finishing about 4,500 behind the Tories. Labour was a decent 2nd in the rest of the county except in this seat. Of course the 2 city seats were won by Labour. Since then, the LDs have replaced Labour as the main opposition everywhere in the county except Peterborough, though in current circumstances this could of course change. NE Cambs is not dissimilar to Fenland district which somehow Labour actually won in 1995, albeit not retaining control for long – of all Labour’s amazing sweep through much of Britain that year, that was probably the most shocking result of all, to me at least.
The Tories held Bourn very easily. Both their vote and Labour’s went up by over 10% since last year, with Labour almost catching the LDs for second.
Yes,
an encouraging result for both main parties in an area where the LDs have become a little too strong for comfort.
If this kind of result is replicated then we could see Tory seats becoming safer (or gained) as Labour recovers in third/takes second,
but council by-election results are very sporadic and need a lot of aggregation to get real trends.
there have been a lot now since May 2010. The Tories have often improved at the expense of the LDs in their stronger areas, and in general Labour has done the same, often in both stronger & weaker areas; there seems to be a pattern of Labour doing worse in Kent (there doesn’t seem to have been a by-election in Essex) than anywhere else, though there have been some disappointing results ranging from Brent to Keighley. There have been a small number of LD gains from the Conservatives mainly in more rural & small-town areas.
That’s an interesting analysis.
- there is a pattern of Labour doing pretty well,
but the LD and Tory pattern is much more patchy.
Sometimes the LD vote is collapsing – but sometimes it isn’t and they gain the odd seat from the Tories.
I think you do get odd periods though.
The Tories had a relatively good patch in by-elections around 1996/97 but only because of terrible results a year or two before.
If the LD vote is holding up in areas where they are stronger then that is a concern.
It’s not illogical though – perhaps it’s collapsing in places where it’s fairly rootless.
If they hold 50 seats on 10% of the vote then they are not far off PR anyway.
The LDs have done particularly badly in larger cities, including Liverpool, Manchester (a particularly extreme example) and Sheffield, and haven’t done well in London either (a major exception being Earl’s Court which they gained from the Tories for strong local reasons). In many cases this has been in wards where they have previously been strong.
That seems to be right,
I’m not sure whether they are at risk in Gloy Plopwell’s own Hornsey and Wood Green though.
A massive swing from Lib Dem to Labour here in Cambridgshire though would help the Tories by making the seats safe (unless they fall also back themselves)
If the NHS reforms are perceived as a massive failure, the Lib Dems could run one of their unpleasant highly personalised smear campaigns and unseat Lansley.
Look at what happened in North London in 1997, and in Wyre Forest in 2001, in terms of voters who were angry at NHS reforms.
Most likely, however, things will pan out as Joe suggests, with the Lib Dems falling back and Cambs becoming safer for the Tories against a more split opposition.
Well they could try,
but I think they’ll look very silly if they go on with these sorts of tactics against their coalition partners.
(They are still doing so in my area by the way.
With Cable campaigning on local issues the Tory council is having to clear up the mess from,
having refused to get involved when the LDs ran it until last May).
I for one could never trust them,
certainly not out in the constituencies,
although even I have been pleasantly surprised by 1 or 2 of them – notably Danny Alexander.
I’m not totally sure much of that swing in North London was down to the hospital, but others with specific knowledge seemed to suggest I was wrong.
It just sounded like a touchy feely story invented by the BBC,
as the results seemed to suggest voters in Ilford North and Romford and actually parts of Bromley would also be using Edgware Hospital.
But someone on this site did say he warned Rhodes Boyson that the hospital issue was seriously big and he could lose – perhaps it’s a convenient kind of catch all when people want to boot a government out anyway.
Yes maybe.
Tory performance in Barnet, Brent and Harrow (in general elections) has been consistently sluggish since 1997.
It suggests demographic changes were already an important factor in 1997, probably more important than the hospital issue.
Was interested to know whether Sir Anthony Grant is still alive and happily he is (according to Wikipedia) at the age of 87. Of course he was MP for Harrow Central before 1983.
Andrew Lansley is the new Leader of the House following the reshuffle. It looked to me at PMQs yesterday that he didn’t look too comfortable in his new post (he was sitting in the traditional Leader of the House’s space previously occupied by George Young.)
Well Harry it’s never nice to be demoted & then have to look as if you’re contented with your lot.
I heard it said that it was a promotion.
I thought he looked fairly relaxed actually – let someone else have a go
but he must be at least partly annoyed.