Cambridgeshire North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 26862 (51.4%)
Labour: 9274 (17.74%)
Liberal Democrat: 10437 (19.97%)
BNP: 1747 (3.34%)
UKIP: 2991 (5.72%)
English Democrat: 387 (0.74%)
Independent: 566 (1.08%)
Majority: 16425 (31.43%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22187 (46.8%)
Labour: 14657 (30.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8042 (17%)
Other: 2536 (5.3%)
Majority: 7530 (15.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 24181 (47.5%)
Labour: 15280 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 8693 (17.1%)
UKIP: 2723 (5.4%)
Majority: 8901 (17.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23132 (48.1%)
Labour: 16759 (34.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6733 (14%)
UKIP: 1189 (2.5%)
Other: 238 (0.5%)
Majority: 6373 (13.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23855 (43%)
Labour: 18754 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9070 (16.4%)
Referendum: 2636 (4.8%)
Other: 1110 (2%)
Majority: 5101 (9.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Steve Barclay (Conservative) born Lytham St Annes. Educated at King Edward VII School, RMA Sandhurst and Cambridge University. Solicitor and former amry officer. Contested Manchester Blackley 1997, Lancaster and Wyre 2001
Steve Barclay (Conservative) born Lytham St Annes. Educated at King Edward VII School, RMA Sandhurst and Cambridge University. Solicitor and former amry officer. Contested Manchester Blackley 1997, Lancaster and Wyre 2001
Peter Roberts (Labour) Born 1983, Derby. Educated at Backwell Comprehensive and Cambridge University. Managed the office of Dan Norris MP.Lorna Spenceley (Liberal Democrat)Robin Talbot (UKIP)Susan Clapp (BNP) Graham Murphy (English Democrat) Debra Jordan (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98588
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 24.1%
Born outside UK: 3.6%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.2%
Full time students: 1.5%
Graduates 16-74: 10.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.6%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 14.1% (Council: 9.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
Conservative candidates website manager in April fool amusement.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/blog/2010/mar/31/april-fool-round-up-hoaxes
(see section marked 12.20pm)
Yeah. It wasn’t my finest hour. : )
Cons Hold= 11,000 maj
BNP have selected Susan Clapp
Is there another seat where the Lib Dems are further from taking now with 60+ MPs which they held with < 20?
Isle of Wight possibly
Leeds West
Good answer Pete but not quite correct…
Its true my party are well short in Leeds West at present, but they only held it 8387 when they did hold 23 seats nationally.. my question said when < 20.
Con Hold
Maj 8300
C hold maj 16000
Chris: Croydon North, which Bill Pitt briefly held when it was largely Croydon North West.
Con maj 14,000
CON HOLD
Since 1885 which seats have included Wisbech?
Tory vote is around 9.1% up on 1997.
So it’s within a shade of 1992.
A good result given that the other Cambridgeshire seats do seem to be trending LD. Possible influence of the county town or simply the Labour vote collapsing and coalescing around the perceived main challenger?
Yes, South Cambridgeshire, South East Cambridgeshire and Huntingdon do seem to be trending the yellow way.
I was particularly disappointed with the South East Cambridgeshire result.
North West Cambridgeshire has seen a bit of a strengthening in the Lib Dem vote, but not to the same extent as the other three seats. It’s still very secure.
This seat actually seems to have seen a weakening of the Lib Dem vote (comparing this result to the notional 1992 one – though of course those figures may have been inflated by a residual Clement Freud effect).
It’s ironic that that the only Cambridgeshire seat the Tories didn’t win in 1983 is now their safest in the county.
The LDs have got probably almost all the Labour votes they could get in those seats – Labour could regain some of them now the LDs in coalition.
‘A good result given that the other Cambridgeshire seats do seem to be trending LD.’
That’s certainly true of the seats in South Cambs, but not North Cambs where the Tories still hold monolithic majorities in Cambs North West, Huntingdon and here
I too was surprised by the large(ish) swing from Tories to Lib Dem, when most seats in this area were going the other way
I don’t think it’s anything to do with the MPs of those seats or with the fact that the Lib Dems are now strong in Cambridge – as the Tories pipped Labour to 2nd place in that poll.
‘It’s ironic that that the only Cambridgeshire seat the Tories didn’t win in 1983 is now their safest in the county.’
Not really given that the Libereal vote was almost entirely based on its MP – Clement Freud
The Lib Dems have never been strong in Cambridgeshire and besides Freud was on the extreme right of the old Liberal Party and would have appealed to many Tory voters
the ‘large(ish)’ swing from the tories to lib dems that tim jones speaks of in the south cambs seats was 2.4% in south and 2.6% in south east – which is modest at best
i do agree though with the obvious point that the liberal vote in this seat was entirely down to clement freud and the way it has been decimated since his departure only underlines that fact
Am I right that the seats including Wisbech after 1918 have been
Isle of Ely 1918-83
Cambridgeshire North East 1983-present
Sounds right to me Harry.
Just seen the detailed result for the 1973 by-election and was surprised to see Labour doing so well in third place:
Lib – 17,390, C – 15,920, Lab – 12,153.
Labour never won the Isle of Ely, but they came close in 1966 (C majority 1,754).
In 1970 there was no Liberal candidate.
The Isle of Ely was one of a few seats the Conservatives actually gained in 1945 thanks to Labour intervening and taking votes from the Liberals and the sitting MP, James de Rothschild who had represented the seat since 1929 dropped to third. Funny that this seat which more than most is thought of as being exceptionally parochial, has twice elected Liberal MPs with a background in prominent continental Jewish families.
March North stayed Conservative, with Labour just nicking 2nd from the LDs. A relatively uneventful by-election though.
The full result is shown here (it was a County Council by-election):
Con 616 (52.4; -3.4)
Lab 282 (24.0; +10.3)
LD Will McAdam 277 (23.6; -6.9)
Majority 334
Turnout not known
Con hold
Percentage change is since June 2009.
Thanks –
A good Labour result in a County where they lost a lot of support last May.
Cons not too bad here either.
The electorate of March North was 5,448 in December so the turnout would have been about 21.6%.
Will be interesting to see if Labour wins any seats in Fenland in May.
They did win it in 1995,
but I’d expect a Con hold this time.
If they can’t even get half as many votes as the Tories in March then they don’t have a lot of hope, unless they have carefully targeted somewhere else. March was always the best Labour area in Fenland.
You are probably right Pete, but it may be that there’s at least one other ward there which may or may not be a better bet for Labour. It is an improvement for Labour, but from a very low base which is why I haven’t greeted this result with great enthusiasm.
Labour will probably replace the LDs as the main opposition on a lot of councils like Fenland over the next few months and years.
Yes but not if we fail to win seats on them.
I’ve never been to March,
but do know Wisbech and some of the rural areas.
I think Labour did have pretty much all the seats in March in 1995, but they must have had others – they had control, but it looks like a one off in a true landslide situation.
Steve Barclay said there are lots of excellent farm shops in his constituency.
Being the opposition on Fenland doesn’t count for much – it’s 39 Tories and 1 Independent right now.
In places like Fenland we might have more of a chance in 2012 once the memory of government has had another year to fade, but I think it’s still probably too soon.
On the other hand, whilst March is one of the better bits for Labour, we don’t seem to have stood in the north of it recently. I’d suggest the East ward or one or two of the ones in Wisbech would be our best bests for a gain.
38 Tories, 1 Lib Dem and 1 Independent, actually.
Thanks all, for the details.
March, from the photos, looks like a nice place, on the River Nene,
but it may be varied.
I hadn’t actually realised it is part of the Isle of Ely itself (although of course was in that seat pre 1983).
Yes, the large number of uncontested wards in 2007 flatters the Tory position somewhat, although I found it surprising Labour didn’t even put up candidates.
March is a dump
Yes, I can imagine it might be actually.
Pictures of rivers can mislead.
I imagined it is a small picturesque place but is probably larger than Ely and about the same size as Wisbech.
I think Spalding in South Holland is quite pleasant,
and Wisbech is ok/ varied.
That’s a pity – I’d imagined it to be a nice place.
Some of these places up the east side of the country are somewhat remote, insular, and not very well off.
But they are often quite pleasant nevertheless, and vary a lot.
The farming in East Anglia and Lincolnshire is probably pretty successful.
I think the south Cambridgshire area, including Ely, is a more affluent hub, with many people who work in Science parks, or various other jobs spinning off from the University.
Communications in North East Cambridgshire are not bad.
There is a good east-west road from Kings Lynn to Peterborough via Wisbech (which also has quite a frequent express bus)
March has a rail service to Peterborough and Ely which connects well to Cambridge,
but I guess the Cambridge effect just fades in these parts.
Fenland – May 2011
Con hold
Interesting by-election result in Staithe ward last night:
Con 228 (42.0; -13.1)
Lab 166 (30.6; +1.8)
LD 90 (16.6; +16.6)
UKIP 39 (7.2; -8.9)
Ind 20 (3.7; +3.7)
Majority 62
Turnout 28.8%
Con hold
Percentage change is since May 2011.
Interesting because of the LD intervention & who they clearly took their votes from. Labour have done fairly well in a ward which didn’t seem at all possible in May but remain unrepresented on the council.
A town council by-election held simultaneously saw a very similar result.